macroeconomics

By the end of December, Catalonia registered a 0.2% annual inflation rate, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). This figure is the lowest recorded in Catalonia at the end of the year since December 1978, when the INE started providing figures for each of the Autonomous Communities. In the whole of Spain, prices ended 2013 posting an annual inflation rate of 0.3%, the lowest registered on a month of December since 1961; the very year such figures started being released. However, these are not the lowest annual inflation rates, since the record was set in July 2009, with a -0.9% annual rate in Catalonia. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.2% in December in Catalonia on November figures and by 0.1% in the whole of Spain. The price increase was mostly due to the growth in oil prices, while leisure, culture and clothing helped minimising the general increase.

Catalonia has confirmed its fourth place in the Autonomous Community rankings of GDP per capita, according to figures released by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). This data from 2012 reveals that the Basque Country is still the leading area in Spain, followed by the region of Madrid and Navarre. The figures indicate that the GDP per capita of Catalonia amounted to €26,412 in 2012, meaning 0.7 % less than in 2011. In 2012, the wealth generated by the Catalans totalled €192,535 million, 18.7 % of the Spanish GDP, above the 2011 figures when Catalonia contributed to 18.6 % of the Spanish economy.

Housing prices increased by 0.8% in Catalonia during the third quarter of 2013, which is the first quarterly increase in the last three years. However, despite the positive figures, in annual terms prices at the end of September were 8.1% lower than those registered 12 months ago, due to the price falls registered in the second half of 2012 and the first 6 months of 2013. Between July and September 2013, prices of newly-built flats and houses in Catalonia rose by 5.7%, while those of second-hand housing were still decreasing (-0.3%). However, overall figures suggest that the real estate market may have reached the bottom and that its recovery might be about to start. In the whole of Spain, housing prices rose by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2013.

The Catalan Government has forecasted a 0.9% economic growth for 2014 in its budget proposal for next year, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%). The positive figures are mostly due to the strength of the export sector – which will continue to improve its results. The main factor slowing down growth will be the internal demand, which will continue to decrease although it will do so at a lower pace. In addition, the Catalan Executive believes the unemployment rate will decrease and reach 23.1% by the end of the year. It is expected 2013 will end with a 23.7% unemployment rate, higher than the 22.6% rate registered at the end of 2012.

According to the Catalan Institute of Statistics (Idescat), Catalonia’s economy grew by 0.1% between July and September. For the first time in 9 quarters, the Catalan economy is growing again, leaving behind the technical recession. However, in annual terms, Catalonia’s GDP has not recovered yet and at the end of September it posted a 0.6% decrease on data from September 2012. Besides, the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE) confirmed that the Spanish Economy also grew by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, a figure which had been advanced last week by the Bank of Spain. In annual terms, the Spanish economy dropped by 1.2% compared to data from September 2012.

This October, prices are 0.1% cheaper than they were a year ago, in October 2012, according to the advanced inflation rate released by the Spanish Statistics Institute. If this is confirmed, annual inflation rate would have gone from +0.3% in September to -0.1% in October. Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks fell and the increase in university education fees was slight. Last year, university tuition fees doubled as one of the austerity measures adopted to reduce public deficit. Regarding monthly changes in the overall inflation rate, prices increased by 0.4% between September and October.

Catalan companies exported goods and services worth €5.05 billion in April, which represents a 13.4% growth compared to the same month of 2012. In the first four months of 2013, Catalonia exported €19.17 billion, a 1% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. Looking at figures for the whole of Spain, exports reached €29.40 billion in April, an 18.6% increase compared to figures from April 2012. Regarding the volume of exports reached in the first four months of 2013, Spain exported 76.98 billion, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The chemical sector led Catalan exports, followed by capital goods and cars.

By the end of last month, 14,829 fewer people were registered at the Catalan Public Employment Service, which leaves the total number of registered jobseekers at 642,166 individuals. This represents a 2.26% drop compared to the figures from April, meaning that registered unemployment decreased in Catalonia for the last three consecutive months. May is a month when unemployment tends to drop thanks to temporary summer jobs, mostly related to the tourism industry. In the whole of Spain, unemployment decreased by 1.97% in May, with 98,265 fewer people registered as unemployed. This leaves the total number of people registered as being without a job and looking for one at 4,890,928 individuals in Spain. The Catalan Government welcomes “the positive horizon” shown by the May figures but it considered them to be “insufficient” as yet.

Catalonia’s GDP decreased by 0.3% between January and March 2013, while the Spanish economy dropped by 0.7% in the same period. The Catalan figure represents a more gentle drop compared to the last quarter of 2012, when the Catalan economy plummeted by 0.7%. However, looking at the annual figures, results from March 2013 represent a 1.9% drop compared to March 2012. Exports and tourism are the main economic engines. However, the improvement is also due to the fact that domestic consumption continued to post negative figures but they were still better than in the previous months. The data are early estimations calculated by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Ideascat) and the Catalan Economy Ministry, released on Friday.

The number of jobseekers registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) decreased by 7,055 people last month, which leaves the total number at 656,995 unemployed individuals. The figure represents 21,274 more jobseekers than a year ago, an annual increase of 3.35%. In April, all the economic sectors contributed to the reduction in the level of registered unemployment. In the whole of Spain, the number of people officially registered as unemployed decreased by 0.91%, setting the total number of jobseekers below 5 million individuals (4,989,193), 46,050 fewer people than a month ago. The Catalan Government considered the April figures to be “positive” but also “insufficient”.

The deficit target for Spain’s entire public sector has also been raised from 4.5% to 6.3%. The Spanish Government has kept 81% of the deficit for itself while it is only responsible for 50% of Spain’s public spending. The Spanish Government has allowed itself a 5.1% deficit target, while the Autonomous Communities are only allowed a target of 1.2%. The regional governments fund the basic welfare state services and manage more than 35% of Spain’s total public spending. The Catalan Government welcomes the revision but considers it not to be enough. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, has been insisting that the Autonomous Communities should have at least a third of the total deficit. Therefore, with an overall target of 6.3%, the Catalan Executive should have a target at least 2.1%.

By the end of March, unemployment in the whole of Spain set a new historical record high with a rate of 27.16% and more than 6.2 million people being without a job and looking for a new one. This represented a quarterly increase of 237,400 individuals and a yearly growth of 563,200 people. In Catalonia, 902,300 people were unemployed by the end of March, 17,100 more individuals than three months previously and 65,300 more than a year ago. This sets a new historical record high for Catalonia too, breaking the previous one just set three months ago with a rate of 23.9% unemployment by the end of 2012. Unemployment increased throughout Catalonia except in the western Lleida province where it has been decreasing over the last year.

According to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE), the Catalan GDP fell by 1% last year. However, according to the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat), it dropped by 1.3%. Regarding Spain’s economy, the INE declared that it fell by 1.4% while the Idescat indicates it plummeted by 1.9%. The reason for these differences is that data from both institutes are based on estimates and are still provisional. In any case, Catalonia is one of the Autonomous Communities with the mildest recession in Spain and continues to be that with the highest GDP, €198.63 billion. In addition, Catalonia is among those with the highest GDP per capita, set at €27,248 while the Spanish average was €22,772.

The number of people unemployed and registered as such by the end of February at the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) increased by 3,359 people compared to the January figures. This is the lowest unemployment increase registered in the month of February in the last six years. In total, there were 661,176 people in Catalonia who were without a job and were looking for a new one. This sets a new historical record, with 23,228 more people unemployed than a year ago, representing a 3.62% increase. In the whole of Spain, unemployment increased by 59,444 people in February and for the first time the number of people officially registered as jobseekers topped 5 million individuals. Within the last 12 months, unemployment in Spain increased by 328,124 individuals, 6.96% more than those registered in February 2012.

Economic recession hit Catalonia even harder in 2012 than in 2011, when it dropped by 0.7%. The contraction was especially severe in the last quarter of the year. In December, Catalonia’s GDP plummeted by 0.6% compared to 3 months previously. The fourth quarter’s poor figures made the Catalan economy contract by 1.3% over 2012. In 2011, it also decreased but at a slower pace, dropping by 0.7%. For the whole of Spain, the economy plummeted by 1.8% in 2012 and by 0.7% over the last quarter of the year, compared to the figures from September 2012. The main reason behind the last quarter’s drop is the decrease in consumption by families, compared to the purchases made in the third quarter, before the VAT increase.