macroeconomics

Catalan companies sold abroad some €31,899.9 million worth of goods and services between January and June this year, which represents a 7.16% increase on the figures from the first six months of 2014, according to information released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness. Catalan exports have never before reached such a high sales volume for a six-month period. Not only this, the level of international sales registered during June alone also broke all previous records for this month, coming in at €5,662.1 million. Indeed, almost month after month Catalonia's export records were broken during the first half of this year and the Catalan economy has seen exports rocket during the last 3 years. In Spain as a whole, international sales have also broken all previous records in the first half of 2015, reaching 125,122.9 million, a 4.9% growth on figures from the first 6 months of 2014. Thus, the Catalan economy generated 25.49% of Spain's total exports, while representing 19% of its GDP and 16% of its population.

Catalonia’s annual inflation rate increased from a rate of 0.3% in June to 0.4% in July, according to information released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). This is the highest yearly rate since June 2014, when prices also increased 0.4% compared to the previous year. In Spain as a whole, annual inflation continued at the 0.1% rate registered in June. Therefore, deflation is gradually being left behind, although price increases are still at a low level, mostly due to the continuing low price of fuel on the global market. However, in monthly terms, prices declined by 0.8% in Catalonia, mainly owing to a 13.3% drop in the price of retail goods due to seasonal sales, but also because of a 0.5% drop in the price of fruits and vegetables. The increase in housing rentals, communications and entertainment, mostly travel industry, have not been able to compensate for the aforementioned declining prices in monthly terms.

The Catalan GDP increased by 0.9% between April and June this year, which is a positive figure but slightly lower than the 1.1% rate registered during the first quarter. However, in annual terms, the Catalan economy grew by 3% in the year to June, which is more than the 2.6% annual growth registered in March. Such a high level of annual growth had not been registered since September 2007, before the financial crisis started. According to the Catalan Finance Ministry, the minor fall off in growth registered between April and June compared to the growth rate from January to March is due to the "extraordinary" 1.1% growth rate of the first quarter. The Ministry stressed that 0.9% growth is still a very positive rate and does not break the trend of the economic recovery, on the contrary proving its strength.

Registered unemployment decreased in Catalonia by 9,162 people in July compared to the previous month, the third-biggest drop for the month of July since 1996. The total number of people registered as unemployed with Catalonia’s Public Employment Service (SOC) at the end of the month was 501,785 individuals, which represents an 11.69% drop in annual terms, the highest percentage decrease since April 2000 (when registered unemployment dropped 11.94% compared to 1999 figures). In addition, the figures from July mean that there have now been 25 consecutive months of annual drops in the number of unemployed in Catalonia. As well as this, the total number of Catalans without a job and looking for one at the end of last month was the lowest  since July 2009 (when there were 495,911 jobless people). In Spain as a whole, registered unemployment decreased by 74,028 people from June to July, which represents an 8.45% annual drop and is Spain’s most significant decrease for the month of July since 1998.

Catalonia's GDP increased by 3.5% between June 2014 and June 2015 and was the Autonomous Community with the third-highest level of economic growth, leading Spain's economic recovery.  Spain as a whole grew at a 3.1% annual rate in the same period, according to figures released on Thursday by the Spanish Independent Fiscal Authority (Airef). Ahead of Catalonia in terms of GDP growth are the Balearic Islands – with 4% growth – and the Valencian Country (also called Valencian Community) – with growth of 3.9%. They are followed by Catalonia (3.5%), the Canary Islands (3.4%) and the Madrid region (3.2%). According to these figures, the eastern part of Spain has been the most dynamic during the last few months, and Catalonia, which is the wealthiest Autonomous Community and has one of the highest growth rates, is the region contributing the most in absolute terms.

At the end of June there were 31,900 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia than in March and 44,200 less than a year ago, according to the Active Population Survey for the second quarter of the year released on Thursday. These figures mean Catalonia's total number of unemployed was 726,200 individuals and that the unemployment rate was 19.1% at the end of the second quarter. In March, the unemployment rate was 20.05%; in December, 19.88%; and in September, 19.1% as well, the same as for June of this year. In addition, the number of people with a job increased by 51,800 individuals between March and June, a 1.71% increase in quarterly terms. Compared to a year ago, in June there were 35,000 more people with a job than in June 2014. At Spanish level, unemployment also decreased during the second quarter of the year, with 295,600 fewer jobseekers registered, a 5.43% reduction on figures from March. In the whole of Spain, there were 5,149,000 people without a job and a 22.37% unemployment rate overall.

This May, Catalan exports increased by 4.5% on the same period in 2014, reaching €5,301.7 million and setting a new record as the best May since 2000 (when comparable data started to be collected), according to figures published on Thursday by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness. Imports also rose, by 2.7% to €6,331.2 million. The chemical industry accounted for €1,433.9 million, increasing by 7.1%, followed by the car industry, represented €882.5 million and a 6% growth. In contrast, exports in capital goods fell by 7.1% (€892.8 million). In the whole of Spain, exports increased by 1.9%, totalling €21,025 million and breaking a new record for a month of May since the beginning of the historical series in 1971.

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and Barcelona-based Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) think tanks, together with an Italian and a Greek research centre, have presented a report stating that the economy of an independent Catalonia would grow more in the next 15 years than if the current 'status quo' was kept. The study analyses 3 different scenarios: the current model, an agreed independence process and a unilateral declaration of independence. In either case of independence, the Catalan economy would be in better shape in the long-run than if the current framework was kept, the researchers conclude. However, in the event of a unilateral process, there may be negative economic effects in the short-term, mostly due to uncertainties related to EU Membership. Nonetheless, they consider the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme – imposed by the Spanish Government – "unsustainable at macroeconomic level" for Catalonia.

Prices increased by three-tenths during June and left an annual inflation of 0.3%, the highest in Catalonia in the last year, particularly since June 2014, according to data published Tuesday by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). This data marks the second consecutive month with positive inflation in Catalonia after six consecutive months of recording negative rates. Spain as a whole also entered this June with positive inflation (+0.1%) after 11 months straight of deflation. June 2015 is the first month since June 2014 with positive annual inflation in both Catalonia and Spain as a whole, signifying economic recovery. Prices for electricity – which increased this June after falling last year – and the upward trend in prices of fresh fruit have decisively solidified recent inflation.

Catalonia's GDP has increased by 1.1% during the first quarter of the year compared to the last quarter of 2014, while the Spanish economy grew by 0.9% and that of the European Union by 0.5%, according to definitive figures released by the Catalan Statistics Instituted (Idescat) on Friday. In annual terms, Catalonia's economy increased by 2.6% from March 2014 to March 2015, mostly due to the positive evolution of domestic demand and the strength of the export sector. The figures released this Friday improve upon the provisional data that had been announced in May for the first term of 2015, when it was stated that Catalonia’s economy had grown by 0.9% from January to March. With the 1.1% growth finally registered, Catalonia now accumulates 8 consecutive terms of quarterly growth.

Catalan exports totalled €15.66 billion for the period January-March 2015, a 6.6% growth on figures from the 1^st quarter of 2014. This represents a new historic high, setting a new record for Catalonia’s export sector, which has been growing strongly over the last few years. As well as this, exports in March increased by 15.4%, reaching the highest amount ever recorded for a single month. Exports from Catalonia during the first quarter of 2015 represent 25.7% of Spain’s total exports. Regarding Catalonia’s imports, they totalled €18.48 billion, a 4.4% increase. Catalonia’s trade deficit reached €2.82 billion, representing a 6.3% drop on figures from the previous quarter.

House sales in Catalonia have recorded a double-digit growth rate in March compared to the same period last year, official data from the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) has highlighted. The number of house sales was 4,334 units, which represents a 10.2% annual increase over March 2014 figures. So far, Catalonia has accumulated six consecutive months of positive annual rates for house sales, and all its provinces have followed this trend with the exception of Tarragona. In particular, Barcelona Province stands out with an above-the-average 15.66% annual increase. In Spain as a whole, the number of houses sold in March was 27,280 units, a 2.1% increase in annual terms and the 7^th consecutive month of positive annual rates.

The Catalan economy has now accumulated 8 consecutive quarters of economic growth, posting a 0.9% increase in GDP between January and March, according to provisional data released on Thursday by the Catalan Finance Ministry and the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). Regarding inter-annual figures, the Catalan economy had grown by 2.4% by the end of the first quarter of 2015 compared to figures from the same period in 2014. These last figures confirm a strengthening of inter-annual growth, since last December it reached 1.9%, and an overall strengthening of the Catalan economy and its recovery from the crisis of the last years. The recovery of the internal demand and the continuing good performance of the export and tourism sectors are the main engines behind the positive figures from the first quarter of 2015. In addition, the industrial sector has been growing for the last 3 years and construction has started to grow again after almost 7 years of continuous decline.