macroeconomics

A new study by the Catalan savings bank corrects and improves the previous economic forecast. It is now believed that in 2011, Catalonia will grow at a 1.1% annual rate, and at 1.6% in 2012. However, without the public sector budget cuts, the Catalan economy will grow at 2% this 2011. The export sector has reached historical maximums, and will lead economic growth. However, economic growth in 2011 will not be translated into an improvement in employment.

The unemployment rate decreased for the third consecutive month. However, last June the reduction was inferior to that experienced in June 2010. June is traditionally a good month for employment figures, because of the high number of tourism-related new contracts.

The Autonomous Community public debt has increased 26% in the last 12 months and represents now the historic maximum of 11.4% of Spain’s GDP. Spain’s total public debt reached 63.6% of its GDP and totals 679.8 billion euros. The Catalan Government’s debt has reached 34.3 billion euros, 17.2% of Catalonia’s GDP. It raised 33% in the last 12 months, as the Catalan Government’s public deficit was 3.86% in 2010.

April numbers have broken a three-month continuous trend of unemployment increases. In total there were 601,541 people registered as unemployed at the end of April.

The Catalan Ministry of Economy and Knowledge has released its macroeconomic outlook for 2011. At the end of the current year, the unemployment rate will be 18%, up from 2010.

The Bank of Spain today released the debt of the Spanish Autonomous Communities. Catalan public debt represents 16.2% of Catalonia’s GDP and increased 36.7% in one year. The new Catalan Government stressed its austerity and stability plan, which will cut public expenditure by 10%.

602,611 people were unemployed at the end of February in Catalonia, which is 2.2% more than at the end of January.

Spain saw 2010 end with 9.24% of public deficit; 4.97% corresponds to the Spanish Government, 3.39% to the autonomous communities and 0.64% to the local administrations. According to the Spanish Government, half of the autonomous communities saw the year come to an end far away from the objective of 2.4% - Catalonia included. The Catalan Government emphasised that the Spanish Government cut down the revenues of the autonomous communities.

The industry sector consolidates its position as the main engine towards the recovery from the economic crisis. Despite this positive data, the 2010 GDP falls by 0.2% in comparison to 2009.

The total number of unemployed people in Catalonia is now 589,623. In Spain as a whole, registered unemployment increased by 130,930 people this January. The total number of unemployed people sets a new historical record, with 4.23 million. Traditionally, January is a bad month in terms of unemployment data due to the end of Christmas sales’ hirings.

Prices increased by 7 decimals last December. The monthly price increase was of tobacco and transport.

For the whole of Spain, Autonomous Communities’ public debt represents 10.2% of Spain’s GDP in the 3rd term of 2010. It is the highest it has been since 1990. However, the largest part of the public debt comes from the Spanish Government, which represents 44.1% of Spain’s GDP. Finally, public debt from local public administrations only represented 3.4% of Spain’s GDP. In total, Spain’s public debt represents 57.7% of the country’s GDP, much lower than in the UK, Germany or Ireland.

The price increase is the result of the start of the winter season, in particular regarding clothing and shoe sales.

The last monthly report by La Caixa, the main Catalan financial institution, also stresses that the currency war should end in order to avoid a protectionism escalation. It foresees a Spanish GDP growth of 0.7% for 2011.

Catalonia saw its prices rise by 8 decimals in October, contributing to an annual inflation rate of 2.6%. Prices for apparel and footwear rose by 10.4 points in Catalonia, playing a heavy role in the overall increase of prices.