macroeconomics

For the second time this year, prices have decreased in Catalonia in annual terms. By the end of November, inflation dropped by -0.1% compared to 12 months ago, mostly due to a drop in electricity and fuel prices, according to figures released on Friday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). In monthly terms, prices stagnated over November compared to the October ones. In the whole of Spain, prices dropped by -0.1% in monthly terms and by -0.4% in annual terms. Spain is now accumulating 5 consecutive months of negative inflation rates. The INE explains this annual drop by the price decrease of housing (which includes electricity), transport (which includes fuels) and food and non-alcoholic drinks. In November electricity prices only increased by 0.7% in annual terms, while they grew by 1.7% in October. Fuel prices dropped by -1.8% in November, while they had only decreased by -1.1% in October.

According to the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security, the number of unemployed people registered in Catalonia stood at 581,652 in November, representing a decrease of 0.93% since October, with 5,481fewer people without jobs. In terms of the unemployment data, last November was the best one in Catalonia since the data series began in 1996, 18 years ago. In annual terms, unemployment is down again and marks 17 consecutive months of decreases, though with the November decline this makes it an -8.8% decline this year, the most extreme fall since June 2000 (which was -9.25%). Across the whole of Spain, November has also shown the best unemployment figures on historical record, with 14,688 less people unemployed. Within Catalonia, unemployment fell in Barcelona and Lleida, but increased in Girona and Tarragona. 

The Catalan economy’s indicators are posting positive figures and the research department of the BBVA bank has reviewed its growth forecast for Catalonia for the current and the next years. According to the report issued on Thursday by the BBVA, the Catalan economy will grow by 1.3% in 2014 and by 1.8% in 2015, which are higher rates than those initially predicted. On top of this, 140,000 new jobs will be created in those two years, which represents a 4.3% employment growth. In addition, it puts an end to the negative trend that destroyed 17.3% of the existing jobs between 2008 and 2013. The BBVA also praises “the very significant effort” made by the Catalan Government to reduce public deficit in the last few years, although they will not be enough to meet the strict deficit objectives for 2014 and 2015, unilaterally imposed by the Spanish Government.

According to figures from the Spanish Institute of Statistics, prices in Catalonia have risen from -0.3% in Octoeber 2013 to an annual inflation rate of 0.1% in October this year, the same as that of September. Inflation has been kept low by falling prices of electricity, while the rising cost of fresh food has prevented negative inflation. In Spain, prices have risen from a -0.6% annual inflation registered 12 months ago to a negative inflation of -0.1%, accumulating four consecutive months of negative rates. The prices of fresh food and non-alcoholic beverages influenced the most the annual price increase in Catalonia, and thus offset the low performance in other sectors that are contributing to keep annual inflation close to zero in Catalonia, and in the negative for the last four months in the whole of Spain.

Figures released by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce on Monday showed that the economy of Catalonia is set to grow by 1.6% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015. The Chamber also predicted that by 2015, there will be a 2% rise in Spain’s GDP and 1.4% in that of the Eurozone countries average. According to the President of the Chamber, Miquel Valls, the recovery of Catalan and Spanish economies is "solid", but he stressed that the "austerity in wages" must be maintained. This report comes after the success of all Catalan banks passing the stress tests issued by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank, which 25 banks across Europe failed. Related economic news is that the unemployment figures released for third quarter of 2014 set Catalonia’s rate at 19.1% and Spain’s at 23.67%.

Spain's unemployment rate at the end of the third quarter stands at 23.67%, according to the latest Active Population Survey (EPA). The unemployment rate for Catalonia has fallen below 20% for the first time in the last 3 years and is set at 19.10%. The number of unemployed people in Catalonia has dropped by 44,400 in the third quarter of 2014, a decrease of 5.76% compared to the previous quarter. This is the biggest reduction since at least 2002, when the Spain's Statistical Institute began the series. Thanks to the creation of 69,100 new jobs in Catalonia over the last 12 months, there are now 34,800 more people employed in the third quarter. This makes Catalonia have the second highest unemployment drop in Spain, second only to Madrid Region (-48,200 people). The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, has called the figures are "encouraging" and "hopeful", although a 19.1% rate is still "very high".

September figures show that prices are recovering in Catalonia, with inflation posting a 0.1% rate in annual terms. According to figures released by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE), Catalonia is showing a positive inflation of 0.1%, up from the -0.1% recorded in August, running away from a deflation scenario. While in Spain, there is a negative annual rate of -0.2%, although it improves the August rate of -0.5%. Overall, prices showing a positive recovery rates were in the sales of fresh fruit and housing. Inflation figures are promising throughout Catalonia, although data is uneven in the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona showing different positive signs of price stabilizing and positive annual inflation.

Catalonia’s GDP recorded an annual increase of 1.4% in the second quarter of 2014, the best result since September 2008, according to official figures published on Friday by the Catalan Institute of Statistics (IDESCAT). The 1.8% increase in domestic demand means that the annual rate of Catalonia’s GDP is higher than Spain's average, and more than that of the European Union (EU28), both located at 1.2%. Not only is Government spending showing a favourable trend, but there has also been growth in the services sector, and those of industry and agriculture. From September 2014, the EU has set mandatory implementation of the new European System of Accounts (ESA 2010), which IDESCAT plans to have in place to coincide with the results of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2014.

At the end of August there were 571,616 people registered as unemployed in Catalonia, which represents 40,042 fewer job-seekers than the previous year, a 6.55% reduction, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This is the 14^th consecutive month registering unemployment drops in annual terms. However, coinciding with the end of the summer holiday's peak, the number of job-seekers increased in monthly terms. At the end of August there were 3,385 more unemployed people than at the end of July, which represents a 0.6% growth. In the whole of Spain registered unemployment increased by 8,070 individuals, reaching 4,427,930 people. At the same time, the affiliation to Social Security has decreased for the first time in 6 months, dropping by 97,582 people.

The real estate market has stopped its downward trend and has started its recovery in Spain. Housing prices already registered an increase in September of 2013 in quarterly terms, but now the prices grew for the first time in annual terms, a phenomenon not registered for the last 6 years. By the end of June 2014, prices grew by 0.97% compared to June 2013. In quarterly terms, housing prices increased by 1.53% compared to March 2014. Since the start of the economic crisis in 2008, housing prices have plummeted an average of 32% throughout Spain, with prices equivalent to those registered in 2003. In the second quarter of 2014, Catalonia was the Autonomous Community with the second highest number of housing sales, registering 11,980 operations.

Exports from Catalonia between January and June 2014 reached €29,769.5 million, which represent a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year. They also represented 24.9% of Spain's total exports, which reached €119,265 million, a 0.5% growth on the previous year's figures. However, despite growing at a slower pace, Spain's total exports posted a new historical record since comparable figures started to be registered in 1971. Considering just the June figures, the export sector seemed to be affected by the negative economic figures from France and Germany. Catalan exports only grew by 0.1% in June compared to the figures registered in the same month of 2013, while Spain's total exports during the first sixth months of the year decreased by 1.2%.

The so-called Consumer Price Index (IPC) – which represents the inflation rate – in May stood at 0.5% in Catalonia in annual terms. In April, it stood at 0.7% according to figures published on Friday by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). Across the whole of Spain, inflation increased by 0.2% in May, while in April a 0.4% inflation rate was recorded, the IPC data confirms.  Core inflation – which does not take into account the prices of energy and unprocessed food –  fell from 0.3% in April to 0.0% in May. The product groups that had a greater impact on May's IPC were food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.8%), recreation and culture (-1.1%) and hotels, cafes and restaurants (+0.5%).

At the end of March there were 840,200 unemployed people in Catalonia, 600 more than in December. This quarterly increase breaks the trend of 3 consecutive quarters with unemployment drops in Catalonia and puts the unemployment rate at 22.10%. However, in annual terms, Catalan unemployment was reduced by 108,800 on March 2013 figures, when the rate reached 24.45%. Unemployment has not decreased in annual terms in the first quarter of the year since 2007. The most negative news is the number of jobs lost between January and March 2014. In the first quarter of the year, 38,100 jobs were lost in Catalonia, 10,000 more than in the same period of 2013. In the whole of Spain, 184,600 jobs were lost between January and March 2014 and the unemployment rate reached 25.93%.

In February, 629,586 people were enrolled on the unemployment lists in Catalonia, representing a decrease of 4,285 unemployed people on the same month last year, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Employment and Social Security Ministry. It is also the sharpest decline for a month of February since 2004, when 5,138 fewer jobseekers were registered. With this latest drop in the unemployment figures, Catalonia has achieved eight consecutive months of registered unemployment reduction in annual terms. In the whole of Spain, unemployment stood at 4,812,486 people, down by 1,949 people in February. It is the first decrease for the month of February since the beginning of the crisis in 2007.

The economic crisis and especially the recession starting in 2009 have contributed to the growing weight of the underground economy in Catalonia and in Spain, according to a study presented on Wednesday by the Spanish Ministry of Finance’s Union of Technicians (Gestha). This study is entitled ‘L’economia submergida passa factura. Avançament del frau a Espanya durant la crisi’ (Underground economy takes its toll. Growing fraud in Spain during the crisis) and is led by Jordi Sardà, a professor at Tarragona’s Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV). It reveals that according to the latest figures (from 2012) the underground economy has absorbed 24.6% of Catalonia’s GDP, hiding €47.36 billion. In 2009 the weight of illegal activity amounted to 22.3 %, meaning that between 2009 and 2012 some €4.6 billion were hidden.