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The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy disclosed on Tuesday evening that the Spanish Deputy Minister for EU Affairs, Iñigo Méndez de Vigo had travelled to Barcelona on Sunday “to talk with” Viviane Reding and tell her “what is going on in this country”. Méndez de Vigo’s trip was decided after the European Commission Vice President had publicly called on Catalan and Spanish authorities to negotiate “without red-lines” to solve the conflict. Rajoy also said that he had spoken about Catalonia with the European Commission President, José Manuel Barroso, “and many other political leaders”. The Catalan Government’s Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, ironically stated that  the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry is putting “so much pressure […] for us not to be received anywhere [to talk about self-determination] that in the end [this attitude] opens doors for us”.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, did not announce any new plan to handle Catalonia’s self-determination claims during the State of the Nation Debate at the Spanish Parliament. On the contrary, Rajoy stiffened his stance on the issue and talked with a stronger tone than usual, saying that he “will not remain indifferent” to the self-determination process. The Spanish PM added he “will fight for Catalans and their progress”, as he will do for “all the Spaniards”. Rajoy repeated once again that Catalonia’s self-determination vote “cannot take place”. He said he is “always open to talk” but “always within the Constitution and the Law”, which are unquestionable red-lines. Two days ago, the European Commission had asked for a “dialogue” without red-lines “to keep Catalonia within Spain”. “Unity is a greater value” than “dialogue”, answered Rajoy. In addition, he pointed out that the Constitution can be modified following the foreseen procedures, although three months ago he completely opposed any modifications.

Spain’s confederation of employer associations, CEOE, and its Catalan member, Foment del Treball – the largest business organisation in Catalonia, have rejected getting involved in the self-determination process. On Friday, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, asked employers to get involved in all of Catalonia’s three main objectives: fostering the economic recovery, maintaining social cohesion and enabling Catalonia’s self-determination. On Monday, Madrid-based CEOE and Barcelona-based Foment, representing the business establishment at Spanish and Catalan level, answered Mas: they rejected “getting involved” although on previous occasions they have lobbied against independence and against self-determination. They asked for “dialogue” between Spanish and Catalan authorities. Additionally, Foment asked for a “fiscal agreement” for Catalonia.

The Catalan Executive, chaired by Artur Mas, has published a 50-page memorandum in reply to the report issued by the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, in late December against Catalan independence. Margallo’s document claimed that independence was “immoral” and “not a democratic option”. The 200-page report was distributed to all Spain’s embassies as a list of arguments to be used to lobby against Catalan independence at international level. The memo was written in a condescending tone and included many judgemental opinions, half-truths, partial quotes and even lies. One of them was that Catalonia recovered its self-government institutions thanks to the Constitution, which is false. The Catalan Government has replied with its own memo and has asked the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry to distribute it to all the embassies as well.

The Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), linked to the Catalan Government, published “an experimental poll” based on 1,830 interviews on 10 different future scenarios, such as an independent Catalonia within the European Union, an independent Catalonia being expelled from the EU and independence bringing a positive economic impact. In the event that the Spanish Government insists in not changing anything regarding the current relationship between Catalonia and Spain, 62.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum while 22.5% would oppose it and 7.8% would abstain. It is the highest-ever support to independence registered in an opinion poll. On the other hand, if the EU automatically expelled Catalonia if its citizens were to vote for independence, 45.4% would still vote “yes”, 37.6% would vote “no” and 12.7% would abstain. For all scenarios independence is the clear winner.

After a great controversy and outraged reaction from businesspeople, politicians and academics, the Spanish Government has amended its previous decision and on Tuesday evening it announced that it will publish the so-called fiscal balances. This financial instrument shows how much money the citizens and companies from a territory give to the central government and how much of this money comes back in form of funds, investments and services. Previous studies showed that Catalonia has been giving away an average of 8% of its GDP each year since 1986, which represents 6 times the entire Marshall Plan in comparable currencies. The Spanish Government was supposed to publish the fiscal balances in December but a month later it announced it would not do so since they were “used to foster Catalonia’s independence” claims. Catalan parties warned Rajoy not to alter the figures and calculation to produce the result he wishes.

The Catalan business community is deeply annoyed with the Spanish Government for not publishing transparent data on Catalonia’s fiscal contribution to the rest of Spain and therefore not recognising the fiscal deficit. The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, was supposed to issue the so-called fiscal balances last December but their publication was inexplicably delayed. Last Friday, in late January, Montoro announced the fiscal balances would no longer be calculated and published in the present form; instead, he would publish in March the “regionalised public figures” stating the costs of public services per citizen because the fiscal balances were “incomplete and incoherent”. However, on Tuesday, the Minister recognised that they were “correct” but “wrongly used” to support Catalan independence claims.

Alejo Vidal-Quadras, Vice-president of the European Parliament and famous for his strong Spanish nationalist stances, has quitted the People’s Party (PP) after 30 years of membership. Vidal-Quadras has joined the newly-created VOX party, a populist ultra-nationalist force defending a total recentralisation of Spain. The Europarliament’s VP criticises the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s “diagnosis” and “solutions” for the “economic, institutional, moral and national unity” crisis the country is going through. However, after 15 years of being Euro MP for the PP, a few weeks ago it was revealed that the party did not want him on the list for the next European elections. Vidal-Quadras might lead VOX in the next electoral race.

The People’s Party (PP) is holding a convention in Barcelona, with leading figures of the party, including PM Mariano Rajoy, to reject Catalonia’s self-determination and independence. On Friday, the PP’s Secretary General, María Dolores de Cospedal, stated that her party “will not allow Catalonia to split from Spain through machete strikes”. She added that “no one can bite off [a chunk of] a country” and that an independent Catalonia “will be born in bankruptcy”. In addition, the leader of the PP’s Catalan branch, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, accused the Catalan President of “imposing” the self-determination vote. Besides, she emphasised that the PP “had suffered a lot” in the Basque Country, which is also happening in Catalonia. Within the convention there is a conference of a former PP member who chairs the Association of Terrorism Victims.

Andreu Mas-Colell, Catalan Finance Minister, accused the Spanish Government of aiming “to undo” the system of Autonomous Communities. He also expressed his fear that the so-called ‘coffee for all’ system [the generalised devolution of the early 1980s that shaped the 17 Autonomous Communities] will become a ‘decaffeinated coffee’ system, implemented ‘in depth’. With this play on words, Mas-Colell was referring to a deep recentralisation and homogenisation process. Furthermore, the former professor of Economics at Harvard and Berkley, denounced “the budget treatment” that the Spanish Government gives to Catalonia as “totally unfair”. In this vein, he proposed that an international and independent body should calculate the fiscal balances between Catalonia and the Spanish State.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, stated in a TV interview on Monday evening that he has “a plan” to prevent Catalonia’s self-determination and “guaranteed” that “the independence of any Spanish territory will not happen while [he is] in office”. Rajoy emphasised that his plan’s guidelines are, firstly, “implementing the law”. The Spanish PM said he is “ready for any scenario that might happen”, but refused to disclose any measure. Secondly, he would be “working on increasing the bonds that have always united the whole Catalan people and the people living in Catalonia that are not born in Catalonia with the whole Spanish people”. Thirdly, “working to solve the problems of the Spanish and Catalan economies”, as well as the funding of the Catalan Government. However, Rajoy stated he “will not call” the Catalan President, Artur Mas, despite the offers to talk.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy also said that an independent Scotland would be “out of the European Union, the United Nations and all the applicable international treaties for being part of the UK”. Regarding the Catalan Parliament’s bill to formally request the transfer of the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Executive, based on Article 150.2 of the Constitution, Rajoy has categorically rejected the idea. He stated that his stance on Catalonia’s self-determination “is clear” and “does not include nuances”. In addition, Rajoy said that he is “always open to dialogue” but that “it is impossible to talk” with Catalonia because of “a continuous process of unilateral decisions”. Furthermore, the Deputy Prime Minister insisted that a self-determination vote “cannot take place” and “goes against the Constitution”.

The Catalan Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, has ironically stated that the situation in Catalonia “must be the most international of political domestic issues in the wide world”, if the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy is talking about it before the US President. Homs exclaimed: “every time, people say it is an internal issue and that it would be a mistake to treat it internationally, but Rajoy cannot stop talking about it in his public appearances”. Homs praised the international community for their silence on the Catalan issue, as they have likely been “pressured” by Spain to voice their disapproval. However, he did not directly refer to Barack Obama, who had avoided commenting on Catalonia’s potential independence at the White House press conference on Monday evening.

Next to the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (who went to the White House), the President of the United States, Barack Obama, did not talk about Catalonia despite being asked about it directly by a journalist. Obama did not repeat the formula expressed by other international leaders – it is Spain’s internal matter – but instead preferred to avoid the issue. He did not explicitly back the Spanish PM, despite the fact that Rajoy had stated, only a few minutes earlier, that “Catalonia’s independence will not happen”. Rajoy’s meeting with Obama and the following press conference at the White House were also controversial because the Spanish Government banned several media that were covering the trip and only allowed one Catalan newspaper to attend it.

The Catalan Government will file several formal demands for payment of the €2.02 billion the Spanish Government legally owes Catalonia from the 2008-2013 period. The money represents 1% of Catalonia’s GDP or 7% of the Catalan Government’s budget. According to the Statute of Autonomy, which was approved by the Spanish Parliament and came into force in 2006, the Spanish Government was obliged to invest a percentage equal to or higher than Catalonia’s share of Spain’s GDP between 2007 and 2013 in order to compensate for an historical lack of infrastructure investment. If it was not doing so, the Spanish Executive had to compensate Catalonia financially. The measure was adopted after exhaustive negotiations and was essential to the approval of this law by the Catalan people through a binding referendum. However, the Spanish Government never honoured it. Madrid compensated Catalonia for the lack of investment in 2007, but not for the remaining years.