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The Spanish Government has written a 210-pages document to brief its staff and diplomats abroad on the arguments opposing the Catalan Government’s plans to hold a referendum on independence in 2014. The document argues that “it is inappropriate to talk about a democratic principle” when discussing the possibility of Catalan independence. The text, seen by Spanish newspaper ‘El País’, claims that independence would certainly imply an “economical decline” and would put to an end the “Catalan European vocation”. Sources from the Spanish ministry of Foreign Affairs have confirmed to the CNA the existence of such a document but explained that it is for “internal use” only. According to the sources, it is “usual” to send reports dealing with such “specific issues”.

Juan Rosell, the current Chairman of Spain’s main association of employers (CEOE), and who used to chair the main Catalan employers association, stated that Catalan businesspeople are shifting towards pro-self-determination stands. Rosell, who is openly against Catalonia’s independence, stated that “business people are not aliens” and “if society has changed its views in the last few years, so have businesspeople”. The top representative of Spanish business-owners stated that the current moment is “extremely serious”. Rosell demanded to “bridge the gap, put all the economic data on the table and analyse the pros and cons for one side and the other one” regarding Catalonia’s independence from Spain. Rosell asserted that companies have not left Catalonia due to the self-determination process.

The Spanish Prime Minister replied on Tuesday to the President of the Catalan Government’s proposal to discuss in a private meeting the question wording, date, and procedure of Catalonia’s self-determination vote. The Financial Times had also urged the Spanish Government to negotiate and make an offer to Catalans, while adding that “the ingredients” for a solution can be found in Catalonia’s question. While Mariano Rajoy answered he was open to meet with Artur Mas, he added he has nothing to negotiate on and nothing new to say. “The [Spanish] Government will not make any concession” regarding Catalonia’s self-determination. In addition, Rajoy insisted the vote “will not take place”. Furthermore, he added that Catalonia will not have a special funding scheme.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated that he wants to meet with the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, in order to convince him “to allow or tolerate” Catalonia’s self-determination vote. In the yearly live interview at the Catalan Public Television Broadcaster (TV3), Mas challenged Rajoy to make “an attractive offer” to the Catalan people, instead of “saying ‘no’ to everything”. Mas proposed that Catalan citizens vote on the Spanish authorities’ offer and on the independence option. Furthermore, the Catalan President insisted he is willing to change the question wording and dateof the self-determination vote if the Spanish Government agrees on a formulation similar to the Scottish referendum.

Following the announcement of a self-determination vote question and date, the Financial Times urges the Spanish establishment to negotiate. The prestigious and influential newspaper stated that the Catalan claims for independence are “a political problem that requires a negotiated solution”. In this Monday printed edition’s editorial, the FT demanded more “federalism within Spain’s crying need for institutional renewal”, convinced that in the two-part self-determination question proposed by Catalan parties “lie the ingredients for a solution”. “It is not just the Catalans but Spain’s leading parties, Mr Rajoy’s PP and the Socialists, that need to rise to the occasion” urged the Financial Times, while also acknowledging that Spain has failed to build “a plurinational home comfortable enough for its culturally distinct peoples”.

The referendum in Catalonia was on everyone’s mind at this Friday’s European Commission press conference in Brussels. 20 minutes of the conference were devoted entirely to the Catalan issue. The EC Spokesperson Pia Ahrenkilde confirmed that Catalonia’s self-determination vote remained “an internal matter for Spain”. Ahrenkilde did not wish to stray away from the official EU stand on the issue, despite the persistence of Catalan, Spanish and foreign journalists. Viviane Reding, the European Commissioner for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, also addressed the Catalan referendum issue this Friday. She explained that even though “it is true […] that the Spanish Constitution does not allow one region to break out”, she “hoped common sense imposes itself in Spain, in order to solve that problem”.

“I want to tell you with all clarity that this consultation will not take place”, emphasised the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy. “It goes radically against the Constitution and the law” and “it frontally clashes against the indissoluble unity of Spain”, he insisted. The “unity of Spain and the sovereignty belonging to the Spanish people as a whole are not debatable and are out of any negotiation”, he added. Therefore, the Spanish Government, run by People’s Party (PP), completely rejects authorising a self-determination vote in Catalonia, whose exact question and date had been agreed on this Thursday amongst a majority of Catalan parties. The parties had decided to hold the vote on November 9, 2014 in order for the Spanish institutions to have time to negotiate the procedures. Meanwhile, the main civil society organisations pushing for Catalonia’s independence announced they were accepting the question.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, also replied to the message sent on Wednesday by the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, against an EU membership for Scotland and Catalonia if they were to become independent states. Mas “welcomed” Rajoy’s statements, as the Spanish PM indirectly “admits that Catalonia can become an [independent] state”. In addition, Mas stated that Catalans are becoming “less sensitive” to “the threats” of the Spanish Government. Furthermore, Alex Salmond, First Minister of the Scottish Executive, highlighted that Scotland “is a European nation”, which “will be welcomed” within the EU if it becomes an independent state. In addition, Salmond urged the British Government to formally ask the European Commission to start a legal analysis on Scotland’s EU membership. However, despite the road map towards independence has already been clarified, Londond rejects asking Brussels about it.

The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy sent a message to Scotland and Catalonia, stating that if they were to become independent they would be excluded from the European Union and would have to re-apply for membership. The statement sounded like a threat, particularly when he added that “this is not simple”, since “it requires becoming an [independent] state, re-applying for membership and unanimity” from the 28 current Member States, suggesting a possible veto from Madrid. Rajoy made this statement next to the French President François Hollande, who was on a state visit to Spain. However, Hollande did not explicitly support Rajoy: he said that this was an “internal matter” for Spain and refused to make further comments. The Scottish Government replied that Rajoy “has not read” its White Paper on Scotland’s independence, which totally rejects being kicked out of the EU.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has confirmed that “in theory” the Spanish Government will implement a tax on bank deposits in 2014 – taxing the global amount of deposits and not individual ones. The revenue from this tax will be transferred to the Autonomous Communities. Furthermore, Rajoy stated that he “is studying” the question of compensating the Catalan Government financially for not having allowed them to implement such a tax in 2013. Catalonia approved a tax on bank deposits for 2013 in December 2012, aiming to collect €500 million per year. However the Spanish Executive approved its own tax a few days later, but at a 0% rate, de facto cancelling Catalonia’s. Despite the fact that Madrid has been compensating Andalusia, Extremadura and the Canaries for the same tax, it refused to compensate the Catalan Government.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, said on Thursday that he was hoping that “moderation” and “common sense” will finally “prevail in Catalonia”. In the evening, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, replied that Rajoy’s statement is “comical and audacious”, because Catalonia has a long tradition of moderation and tolerance. “The first way of being tolerant is making a step towards the other and, historically, Catalonia has always made this step”, Mas stated. However, now Catalan citizens want to decide on their possible independence from Spain and the “moderate” attitude is to talk about how to allow them to democratically vote on the issue, he pointed out. “Moderation cannot be confused with giving up” on a claim shared by a majority of Catalans, added Mas.

The Parliament of Catalonia rejected a proposal to call for a “unilateral” self-determination referendum in the event that the Spanish State “blocked” the possibility of organising a vote by agreement. The motion was rejected with the votes of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – and the three parties defending the unity of Spain: the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), the People’s Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government, and the anti-Catalan nationalism and populist party Ciutadans (C’s). The motion supporting the idea of calling for a self-determination referendum in “a unilateral way” had been presented by the radical left-wing and independence party CUP, which has only 3 MPs in the 135-seat chamber. However it was also backed by the second-largest group, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and some of the MPs from the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

The Catalan Government has presented its budget proposal for 2014, which posts a 1% deficit, representing a 35.5% annual reduction and amounting to €1.98 billion, in line with the 2014 deficit targets imposed by the Spanish Government. The budget prioritises healthcare, education and social policies, which represent 71% of the total non-financial spending. Non-financial spending grows by 0.2% and reaches €20.30 billion, while the total spending amounts to €29.31 billion. The Catalan Finance Minister stressed that spending had not been reduced this year since in the last 3 years it had already dropped by 22%. Budget cuts “have reached their limit”, as otherwise “social cohesion” and “the Welfare State” would “be at risk” he said. In 2014 the Catalan Executive will spend the same per inhabitant as it was doing in 2004 taking into account inflation (€1,901).The adjustment for 2014 focuses on increasing revenue by €3.2 billion, mostly through new taxes (€910 million) and the sales of assets and privatisations (€2.32 billion). On top of this, the Catalan Government forecasts a 0.9% economic growth for 2014, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%).

The Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, considered that “to reform the Constitution in order to satisfy those who will not be satisfied”, referring to the citizens supporting Catalonia’s independence from Spain, who represent more than 50% of Catalans according to polls, would be “a great mistake”. Answering a question from the former Catalan President José Montilla, Rajoy stated before the Senate that “Spain and national sovereignty are not negotiable”. However, despite these red lines, Rajoy affirmed that his attitude towards Catalonia is “to talk” in order to find a negotiated way out. More than 80% of Catalans would like to hold a self-determination vote in Catalonia.

In the last few days, there has been an attempt to build bridges between Catalonia and Spain, despite the visible increase of tension between the two governments. In public the Catalan and Spanish Executives are heading for a collision but at the same time discreet manoeuvres explore alternative ways out. This Tuesday, the ‘number 2’ of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – Josep Antoni Duran I Lleida acknowledged that he met with the Spanish Prime Minister and leader of the People’s Party (PP) Mariano Rajoy on the 16^th October. Besides, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, met on Friday with the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) to talk about a constitutional change. Today, the Spokesperson of the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, stated that Catalonia is waiting for an offer from the Spanish establishment. Although “there is no deadline” for this offer, the self-determination process will not be waiting for it, although if it arrives it will be studied.