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The Spanish Bank Association (AEB in Spanish) and the Spanish Confederation of Saving Banks (CECA in Spanish) warned about the “risks” of Catalonia’s independence. In an official announcement made this Friday, both associations assured that all banks with a presence in Catalonia “would face severe problems of judicial insecurity” in the event of a Unilateral Declaration of Independence after the 27-S elections. They outlined that “any political decision which would imply breaking the rules in force” would result in “exclusion from the EU and the Eurozone” for Catalonia. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, described the Spanish government as “being irresponsible” for pushing the banking sector to be against the independence of Catalonia. He regretted that such “a delicate sector” was used as an “artillery weapon”. 

European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis assured this Friday that Brussels’ intention “is not to influence votes in member states and regions”, referring to the upcoming 27-S Catalan elections, and outlined that they are “a choice of voters”. Dombrovskis comments came after European Commission spokesman Margarities Schinas warned on Thursday that in the event of becoming an independent state, Catalonia “will become a third country and may apply to become a member of the EU”. Dombrovskis, former Prime Minister of Latvia and European Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue recalled that the European Commission “does not normally comment on party politics in member states or their regions”. “We are ready to work with democratically elected or appointed authorities of member states”, he emphasised

The European Commission reiterated this Thursday that an independent Catalonia would be kept out of the EU and would need to reapply for admission. “If a part of a Member State ceases to be a part of that state” because it becomes independent, “the treaties will no longer apply to that territory”, stated European Commission spokesman, Margaritis Schinas. The new independent state “will become a third country and may apply to become a member of the EU”, he added. Schinas clarified that this statement was not the result of any official analysis of the consequences of Catalonia’s independence and said that the European Commission would only carry out such a study if Spain or another EU Member State requested it.

The Swedish Parliament’s Committee of European Affairs’ president, Carl Schlyter, stated that the fitting of an independent Catalonia into the EU “should not be used as an argument” nor “an excuse” in Catalonia’s independence debate. According to Schlyter, “Catalonia will for sure fulfil” all the criteria required to be part of the EU and added that “Spain will see the benefits of having good relationships with Catalonia, whatever Catalonia decides”. “Being angry with your neighbours is the worst strategy”, he emphasised. Schlyter made these statements during an event related to the 27-S elections, organised by the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia Diplocat, at the Swedish Parliament.

Around 2,000 war refugees will arrive in Catalonia in three months’ time and stay “for a long time”, Catalan Government spokeswoman Neus Munté announced at a meeting this morning. The main goal is to integrate the refugees as much as possible and to guarantee their access to health and education services. During the meeting, Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, and Neus Munté, urged the Spanish government to “accelerate the asylum process” and announce the resources that the EU will allocate for this matter. Colau declared that 2,000 families registered on the list of volunteers even before the authorities agreed on a coordinated answer. This shows “the solidarity of Catalan society and that of Barcelona city” Colau said “and it has been crucial in forcing the government to act”, she added. 

The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has assured that her position on the process of sovereignty in Catalonia is "very similar" to that of the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, addressing the issue at a bilateral summit held on Monday and Tuesday. In a joint press conference, Merkel emphasised the necessity to "respect" EU treaties that "guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each state". "It is very important that international law is respected. Here there is no difference", she said in response to journalists' questions. For his part, Rajoy guaranteed that whilst he is Prime Minister, there will be "no split" between Catalonia and Spain.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has stated that the independence process will be officially launched if pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority of the MPs elected in the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, to be transformed into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence from Spain. Mas emphasised that during the last 3 years, Catalan parties have been trying to organise a legal and mutually-agreed vote but that the Spanish Government has not wanted to talk even about it, despite more than 1.5 million citizens demonstrating each year on the streets and the results of the previous Catalan elections of November 2012. However, Mas stated he would still “exchange the forthcoming elections for a mutually-agreed referendum”, but highlighted that the Spanish Government has only left the transformation of regular elections into a plebiscite for Catalans to freely and democratically vote on their future as a country, an option that Mas already identified as the last resort in 2013. Therefore, according to him, “in elections, MPs are counted”, “if we were having a referendum we would be counting votes, but this is not the case”, he stressed.

International experts have participated in a day of debate over the hypothetical scenarios and the possible consequences regarding membership or expulsion from the European Union of an independent Catalonia. The panellists ruled out automatic expulsion, as well as automatic membership, in any scenario. Graham Avery, Senior Adviser of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC), underlined that "the most important" element in deciding what would happen to an independent Catalonia would be "the process" through which it achieves this independence. If it was carried out with the agreement of the Spanish Government, the transition towards full EU membership would be quite fast and smooth. If it was done unilaterally, then a wide range of scenarios are possible, with risks and costs rising. However, a majority of experts have stated that even in the worst case scenario, the costs would not be as high as the Spanish Government is saying. In addition, they affirmed that the EU is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach and that a transition regime is likely to be set up, with basic policies and freedoms not being interrupted.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, is on a visit to the United States to talk with think tanks, investors and media. Mas held a conference at Columbia University on Wednesday evening in which he stressed the democratic principle as the driving force of the independence movement. He praised the American Constitution's "We, the people" to emphasise that "we will vote in September", in elections transformed into a 'de facto' vote on independence. Besides this, Mas also held an interview with 'Bloomberg', saying he hoped that "the biggest" European Union countries will convince Spanish Prime Minister to negotiate a split if Catalans voted for independence. He has also penned an article in the 'Irish Times', stressing that no "decision taken by the Spanish political sphere will break the will of the Catalan people to freely and democratically decide their political future".

The left-wing pro-independence party ERC has accepted the last proposal put forward by the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, to run separately in early elections but with a large part of civil society representatives and independents being included in the President’s candidacy. However, the ERC has not ruled out the possibility of also including civil society representatives in its own list and wants elections in March. Any such elections should become a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. The Catalan President accused the ERC of “twisting” his proposal. Furthermore, sources of the Catalan Government criticised the ERC’s “intransigency” because “they have not moved from their initial stance” of running separately in elections taking place this winter. Mas initially wanted to run together but was not particularly in a hurry to call the elections. 

The former European Commission’s Spokesperson for Economic Affairs during the Eurozone crisis, Amadeu Altafaj, is to become Catalonia’s Permanent Representative to the EU institutions. This position has been created as a way to increase the political weight of the already existing Catalan Government Delegation in Brussels in the middle of the debate about independence from Spain. Altafaj, who has also worked as Deputy Chief of Cabinet of the Commission’s Vice President for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, since 2012, will now direct this delegation and become Catalonia’s voice in the EU institutions’ offices. On many occasions, Altafaj has been vocal about Catalonia’s self-determination, supporting it and emphasising that an independent Catalan State would be economically viable.

The Spanish Government has welcomed a European Council decision which emphasises that "territorial integrity" is "an essential function" of each Member State. Furthermore, the EU institution will "respect" the "national identities of Member States inherent in their fundamental political and constitutional structures, inclusive of regional and local self-government". Such statements are included within a more general declaration about respecting the rule of law within the European Union, issued after recent events in Hungary. However, the Spanish Government managed to include such references to the document, in the middle of the debate about Catalonia's potential independence from Spain and its continuity within the EU. EU Treaties would have to be reformed to include Catalonia, but they would also have to be reformed in order to kick it out of the EU, since there are no specific provisions on this case.

A few hours after the Scottish people decided to remain within the United Kingdom through a referendum, the Catalan President and the Spanish Prime Minister congratulated the Scots, although they sent completely different messages. Through a recorded video message, Spain's PM, Mariano Rajoy, stated that Scotland has rejected the "severe consequences" of "splitting up from the UK and the EU". Rajoy stressed that Scots have chosen "between security and true risks" and that the vote "has strictly respected legality". In a press conference, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that the UK has given the world "a democracy lesson". Mas stated that Catalonia's self-determination process is "strengthened" by the Scottish referendum. He insisted that his main priority is not independence but allowing the Catalan people to vote on their future.

The Spanish Government "cannot change its stance", stated Spanish Deputy PM on the day after Catalonia's independence supporters peacefully formed a colossal rally for the 3^rd consecutive year. Furthermore, the Director of Spain's Public Prosecution Office – appointed by the Spanish Government – threatened the Catalan President with "penal" actions if he carries on once the vote has been formally banned. The day before, 1.8 million people formed an 11km-long Catalan flag mosaic demanding to vote on the 9^th of November. "Citizens have the right to demonstrate but governments have an obligation to honour the law", stated the Deputy PM. Using a restrictive interpretation of the Constitution, Madrid has been insisting that it is "illegal" to hold such a vote. Besides, the European Commission refused to provide specific comments on the massive demonstration of European citizens, repeating it is "an internal issue".

The European Union will adopt a "pragmatic approach" and employ "common sense" in the case of an independent Catalonia or Scotland and would not work to expel them, according to experts gathered at a conference on self-determination on Friday at the prestigious Sciences Po University in Paris. At the conference, which was organised with the support of the Catalan public-private soft diplomacy council Diplocat, experts highlighted the importance of "international recognition" for the process of acceptance of an independent Catalonia within the EU. Graham Avery, member of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC) and Honorary Director General of the European Commission, said that the EU "has no problem in accepting changes in the borders of states", but that it has never experienced a secession which would create "two new member states".