Automatic expulsion from the EU of an independent Catalonia "unrealistic" say experts

Barcelona (ACN).- International experts have participated in a day of debate over the hypothetical scenarios and the possible consequences regarding membership or expulsion from European Union of an independent Catalonia. The panellists ruled out automatic expulsion, as well as automatic membership, in any scenario. Graham Avery, Senior Adviser of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC), underlined that "the most important" element in deciding what would happen to an independent Catalonia would be "the process" through which it achieves this independence. If it was carried out with the agreement of the Spanish Government, the transition towards full EU membership would be quite fast and smooth. If it was done unilaterally, then a wide range of scenarios are possible, with risks and costs rising. However, a majority of experts have stated that even in the worst case scenario, the costs would not be as high as the Spanish Government is saying. In addition, they affirmed that the EU is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach and that a transition regime is likely to be set up, with basic policies and freedoms not being interrupted.

In a day of debate called 'Catalonia and the European Union: EU Capacity for Pragmatic Approaches', organised by Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia (Diplocat), European and Catalan experts participated in 4 round tables that discussed how the EU institutions and the Member States would react in the event of Catalonia becoming independent from Spain. The experts of renowned international prestige analysed the EU accession process, the monetary union, the access to the Single Market and the acquired citizenship rights.

In general terms, they concluded that the EU will adopt a pragmatic approach, as it tends to do in the face of situations that are not foreseen in the Treaties. The experts ruled out completely the automatic expulsion of Catalonia from the EU. Instead, many of them voiced the belief that the most likely outcome would be the setting up of transition regimes in different areas, with some of these being negotiated much faster than others and such a transition period guaranteeing the continuity of the basic policies and freedoms without interruption. In this vein, Catalonia's formal status within the EU could remain "fuzzy" for a while, but citizens and companies should not notice the effects of this in everyday life. Furthermore, many international experts indicated before their addresses that they were neither in favour nor against Catalonia's independence, but that they believed Catalans should have all the information available.

Some of the experts of international prestige who participated were: Angus Armstrong, Director of Macroeconomics at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR); Kai-Olaf Lang, Head of the EU Integration Research Division of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP); Nicolas Levrat, Director of the Global Studies Institute (GSI) of the University of Geneva; Thorvaldur Gylfason, Professor of Economics at the University of Iceland; Jordi Gual, Chief Strategy Officer and Chief Economist of the "la Caixa" banking group; Jaume Ventura, PhD in Economics from Harvard University and Senior Researcher at Barcelona's Centre for Research in International Economics (CREI); and Jordi Galí, Director of the CREI and one of Europe's main experts on monetary policy.