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The Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry has drafted a new report on the consequences of an independent Catalonia, which predicts a 20% drop of the Catalan GDP. According to ‘El Periódico’ newspaper, the document - which will be sent to embassies throughout the world - foresees a fall in exports towards Europe and Spain, a decrease in foreign investments, a flight of talent, less tourism revenues because of the “lack of a common currency”, and a soar in Catalan debt which would reach 78.4% of the Catalan GDP since it would have to assume 18.9% of the Spanish Government's debt. The Catalan Minister for the Presidency and Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, said the report was merely “speculative”, adding that the Spanish Ministry was actually “campaigning” against self-determination. The Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs has asked Catalan authorities to back such claims with “empirical evidence”.

In its editorial on Wednesday, the prestigious ‘The New York Times’ has dissociated the current situation in Crimea and its secession from Ukraine from the independence processes in Catalonia, Scotland and Quebec. The editorial article, which demands European Union countries to impose economic sanctions on Vladimir Putin's Russia, states that the Catalans, Scots and Quebecers “have shown there are legitimate ways to raise” the secession issue. The American newspaper criticized Crimea for its “phony referendum” with a “foreordained” outcome, organised in an express way just as Russian soldiers were being deployed in the peninsula. The newspaper admits secession is a “difficult” matter but recalled that the invasion of Crimea is “illegal”, calling on the international community to react to Putin’s actions.

The Greens' candidate to chair the European Commission in next May’s elections, Ska Keller, committed herself to working for Catalonia's right to self-determination. The German politician said on Monday in Barcelona that "the Greens defend radical democracy and in Catalonia there is a citizen demand in favour of a [self-determination] referendum". "For this reason I want to make the personal commitment that, if I am elected Commission President, I will support Catalonia in allowing a consultation vote on its political future and its relationship with Spain", promised the European Greens' top candidate. Keller, who has been a Member of the European Parliament since 2009, urged the Spanish Government to launch a negotiation process to make this vote possible.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, stated that a unilateral declaration of independence would condemn Catalonia "to roam across space" and that it would be "excluded from the European Union for the centuries of the centuries". García-Margallo, who is one of the most vocal members of the Spanish Executive against Catalonia's independence, stated that such a scenario is "a high risk operation". He criticised the politicians supporting independence, who "put at risk a population that is essentially European", which goes against the will of a majority of Catalans "who want to be part of the European area". "Secession is extremely harmful for Spain but particularly harmful for Catalonia", he insisted. On the same day, the Candidate of the Greens to chair the European Commission, German Ska Keller, stated she was supporting Catalonia's right to self-determination.

The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy disclosed on Tuesday evening that the Spanish Deputy Minister for EU Affairs, Iñigo Méndez de Vigo had travelled to Barcelona on Sunday “to talk with” Viviane Reding and tell her “what is going on in this country”. Méndez de Vigo’s trip was decided after the European Commission Vice President had publicly called on Catalan and Spanish authorities to negotiate “without red-lines” to solve the conflict. Rajoy also said that he had spoken about Catalonia with the European Commission President, José Manuel Barroso, “and many other political leaders”. The Catalan Government’s Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, ironically stated that  the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry is putting “so much pressure […] for us not to be received anywhere [to talk about self-determination] that in the end [this attitude] opens doors for us”.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, did not announce any new plan to handle Catalonia’s self-determination claims during the State of the Nation Debate at the Spanish Parliament. On the contrary, Rajoy stiffened his stance on the issue and talked with a stronger tone than usual, saying that he “will not remain indifferent” to the self-determination process. The Spanish PM added he “will fight for Catalans and their progress”, as he will do for “all the Spaniards”. Rajoy repeated once again that Catalonia’s self-determination vote “cannot take place”. He said he is “always open to talk” but “always within the Constitution and the Law”, which are unquestionable red-lines. Two days ago, the European Commission had asked for a “dialogue” without red-lines “to keep Catalonia within Spain”. “Unity is a greater value” than “dialogue”, answered Rajoy. In addition, he pointed out that the Constitution can be modified following the foreseen procedures, although three months ago he completely opposed any modifications.

The Catalan Minister for the Presidency and Spokesperson for the Executive, Francesc Homs, warned that “if a political solution cannot be reached” to keep Catalonia within the EU if it becomes independent from Spain, it would be “the end of Europe as a model for democratic and peaceful integration of the different peoples that form it”. On Monday, in a debate on ‘Catalonia’s political process’ held at the University of Lisbon’s Faculty of Law, Homs highlighted the fact that if EU Treaties had been interpreted “literally”, the financial bailouts for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece would not have been possible. However, in this case, the EU reacted “with common sense” and for “the general interest”. Therefore, “since the EU is a project of peace and democracy, a political solution [for Catalonia] will be found, as the EU has ever done in all situations”, he stated.

The Spanish Government replies that dialogue can only take place “within the law” and respecting “the national sovereignty”, “two red-lines” that cannot be questioned. The Catalan Government said the Commission should consider Catalonia as “a very good ally to build Europe’s future”. The day before, in Barcelona, Viviane Reding, European Commissioner for Justice, had asked the Spanish and Catalan authorities “to talk” with “an open attitude” and “without red-lines” in order to remain “united”. The European Commission broke its supposed neutrality in the political conflict regarding Catalonia’s future within Spain, despite it officially considers the issue to be Spain’s internal affair. The Commissioner for Justice, Citizenship and Fundamental Rights acknowledged “to understand” the Catalan claims, but she refused to say whether citizens should be allowed to hold a self-determination vote. However, she stated that if independence was declared, Catalonia would no longer be part of the EU.

The prestigious publication reacted to the speculations on the inclusion of independent Catalonia and Scotland in the EU. “It is wrong to insinuate that newly independent states could never join the EU”, stated ‘The Economist’ in its latest edition. However, the British magazine also stressed that these two cases have no precedents in Europe and therefore warned that it would be “dishonest to pretend that accession would be quick or easy” for the two nations. Indeed, according to the EU officials quoted in the article, “it would take at least four to five years to negotiate and ratify” Catalonia and Scotland’s EU full-right membership. ‘The Economist’ also scolds the President of the European Commission for having compared the “peaceful referendums in western Europe” to the “violent break-up of a Balkan country”.

The Spanish nationalist party UPyD (Unión, Progreso y Democracia) has managed its motion against Catalonia’s self-determination to get the support of the governing People’s Party (PP) and the main opposition group, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE). The rest of the parties in the Spanish Parliament have opposed the initiative presented by the group led by Rosa Díez, who asked a few months ago to cancel Catalonia’s autonomy and self-government institutions. UPyD’s motion has been approved with 272 ‘yes’ votes, 43 ‘no’ ballots and 1 abstention. The text states that the Spanish Parliament “explicitly and strongly rejects the secessionist plan of the Catalan Government”, mentioning two resolutions approved in 2013 by the Catalan Parliament. In addition, it asks the Spanish Government to “continue using all the tools foreseen in the Constitution and in the whole of the legal framework to guarantee the rule of law”.

The second meeting of the so-called National Alliance for the Right to Self-Determination of Catalonia (Pacte Nacional pel Dret a Decidir) has agreed to focus their efforts on making it possible for Catalans to vote on their own collective future. More than 1,500 organisations are part of this Alliance, including institutions, political parties, trade unions, business organisations, professional associations, NGOs, cultural organisations and political pressure groups. Not all the participating organisations back independence from Spain, but they all fully support Catalonia’s right to decide on its future as nation. In the last few months, many organisations have joined the Alliance, which had its first meeting in June. On Wednesday they analysed the current situation and have agreed to campaign for the right to hold a free and democratic self-determination vote, putting specific ideologies aside.

The Catalan Minister for the Economy and Knowledge, Andreu Mas-Colell, emphatically stated that if it is “neat, the conflict between Catalonia and Spain will not affect the economy” nor business activity. In front of about 250 employers who were invited at a luncheon organised by Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce, Mas-Colell explained that “Catalonia had emerged stronger” from the economic crisis. The former Economics Professor in Harvard and Berkley also emphasised that the Catalan Government “will not do anything that may leave [Catalans] out of Europe”, thereby sending “reassuring” messages to business-owners. In his speech, the Finance Minister also defended the ongoing self-determination process, describing it as an attempt to respond to the Spanish Government’s centralist policy which is looking to “laminate” Catalonia’s Autonomy “using the crisis as an excuse”.

In an article published on Tuesday in the prestigious ‘Financial Times’, the newspaper’s chief foreign affairs commentator, Gideon Rachman, deplored Madrid’s attitude towards Catalan independence claims, opposing it to the “peaceful” and “consensual” Scottish referendum process enabled by the British Government. The journalist underlined that “there are remarkably few examples of nations breaking up in a civilised way”, mentioning China’s relations with Taiwan, or Turkey’s attitude towards Kurdistan. “Even in democratic Europe, Spain is refusing to contemplate the idea of an independence referendum for Catalonia”, he added. London’s attitude regarding the Scottish case, on the other hand, should be viewed as “a model” for other separatist cases, recognising the UK as a union of nations and stressing the people’s right to decide.

33 Catalan judges have signed a manifesto supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination. The judges emphasise that such a right fits into the current constitutional framework and is in line with international law. Some of the signatories work in provincial High Courts and have been members of the body governing judicial power in Spain (CGPJ). It is the first time that Spanish State civil servants have made such a clear statement supporting the right of the Catalan people to decide freely on their collective future and their relation to Spain. Judicial power in Spain is totally centralised and has a deep centralist tradition. According to these law experts, “Catalonia is a nation”, “without discussion”, and therefore has “full sovereignty to decide on its own future”.

The Catalan Executive, chaired by Artur Mas, has published a 50-page memorandum in reply to the report issued by the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, in late December against Catalan independence. Margallo’s document claimed that independence was “immoral” and “not a democratic option”. The 200-page report was distributed to all Spain’s embassies as a list of arguments to be used to lobby against Catalan independence at international level. The memo was written in a condescending tone and included many judgemental opinions, half-truths, partial quotes and even lies. One of them was that Catalonia recovered its self-government institutions thanks to the Constitution, which is false. The Catalan Government has replied with its own memo and has asked the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry to distribute it to all the embassies as well.