Politics

On Thursday, the Spanish Government’s main advisory body – the State Council – has issued a non-binding report upon the request of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy against the alternative consultation vote that the Catalan Executive is organising for November 9. This body has unanimously recommended taking Catalonia’s participatory process to the Constitutional Court and requesting its suspension. Now, Rajoy has the green light to make such a step on Friday, only 9 days before the vote is supposed to happen. Meanwhile in Catalonia, all the parties supporting the self-determination process are insisting on continuing to work for high citizen participation on the 9^th of November. Furthermore, on Wednesday evening, they started campaigning and the Catalan Government launched the website to inform citizens about their exact voting place. Besides, those against independence in Catalonia are divided between those asking Rajoy to be smart and not to appeal, and those asking him to stop the vote.

While the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled on the 9^th of November approaches, the Catalan Government has additional priorities on its plate, starting with the approval of its budget for 2015. However, right now the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU does not have enough parliamentary support to approve it. Its parliamentary ally, the left-wing independence party ERC, is reluctant to back the new budget after the Catalan Government cancelled the original consultation vote. The ERC wants to start preparing the first budget of an independent state and on Tuesday it offered to extend the 2014 budget. However, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, announced on Wednesday he will bring the budget proposal to the Parliament anyway. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) offered itself as an ally, but Mas asked them to back the alternative consultation vote. The PSC replied that if the question is changed, "we can talk about everything".

The Spanish Government, chaired by Mariano Rajoy, has activated the machinery to suspend the alternative non-binding participatory process that the Catalan Executive is organising on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote. On Monday evening, Rajoy asked the State Council – his main advisory body – for a non-binding report on the Catalonia's new vote; it did so on the same day that a broad network of corruption, mainly involving Rajoy's People's Party (PP), was revealed. On Tuesday, the Catalan Government replied that its will is to put out ballot boxes, since it does not believe the Constitutional Court will suspend such a participatory process. Left-wing parties backing a self-determination consultation asked the Catalan Government to keep the vote no matter what. Now that the unity of action among pro-self-determination forces has been restored, the PP is calling the vote a "referendum", after downplaying it for two weeks.

The Spanish Government announced on Friday that it has asked its legal services to analyse all the aspects of Catalonia's alternative vote of the 9^th of November, which is replacing the original consultation vote that has already been banned by the Spanish authorities. 16 days before the consultation vote has to take place and 10 days after it was announced by the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, the Spanish Executive is starting to pave the way for appealing against this new participatory process that asks Catalans their opinion about independence from Spain. On Friday, the Spanish Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, stated that Mas is pretending to replace "an illegal process for one that is even more antidemocratic". Therefore, it seems that after a few days hesitating whether or not to ban the new vote, the Spanish Government will probably appeal against it and make the Constitutional Court temporarily suspend it. In the last few days, Catalan political parties and civil society organisations have rebuilt their unity of action, which seemed broken during the time the Spanish Government was hesitating.

Catalonia's National Alliance for Self-Determination, which brings together more than 3,000 civil society, business, cultural, sports and political organisations, pledged to make sure that the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November will be a success, in terms of voter turnout and of other "great mobilisations". Despite the acknowledged limitations of this alternative vote that replaces the original consultation vote scheduled on the same day, the National Alliance has agreed to focus its collective efforts on this day's success, also backing "other forms of mobilisation that will strengthen citizen participation" in the self-determination process. Furthermore, the Alliance Coordinator, the veteran Christian-Democrat politician Joan Rigol, stressed that political parties will also focus on this day and will increase "coordination" to overcome recent tensions among them. The National Alliance will meet again after November 9 to discuss the next steps.

On Thursday, Oleguer Pujol, the youngest son of the former Catalan President, Jordi Pujol Soley, was formally indicted for alleged fiscal fraud and money laundering. The Spanish Police and the Public Prosecutor searched his house and several of his companies looking for files regarding real estate operations. This makes Oleguer the third son of the historical leader of conservative Catalan nationalism to be indicted for fiscal offenses. Furthermore, on Wednesday another judge indicted 11 people related to the former President's oldest son, Jordi Pujol Ferrusola – who seems to be at the centre of almost all the investigations. In addition, the judge has requested the freezing of his bank accounts in Andorra, from which he transferred €2.4 million to Mexico just after his father's fiscal fraud confession in July. On top of this, a judge from Liechtenstein is investigating the former Catalan President for alleged money laundering, after requests from the Spanish Police. Jordi Pujol senior has denied having had any bank account in the Alpine country.

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, met on Wednesday, after days of tensions among the parties supporting self-determination. The tensions have been mainly about how to raise the legal profile of the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote, and about a common platform to run in early elections transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. According to Junqueras, the two leaders decided to work on making sure that the alternative consultation vote is "a success". In addition, he said that Mas had requested that he leave the debate about the early elections for the days after the 9^th of November's vote, despite Junqueras insisting on an immediate electoral call.

938 of the 947 existing municipalities in Catalonia will host polling stations for the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November, which replaces the original non-binding referendum. According to the Catalan Government, this represents 99.9% of Catalans being able to vote in their own neighbourhood, town or village, without having to go to a nearby municipality. The Catalan Government will be using its own venues to host the polling stations (mainly high-schools), but it lacks them in small towns. For this reason it requested that town halls cooperate and make municipal venues available for voting. 4 additional municipalities could be added to the final list. In addition, civil societies and parties will be able to campaign in 305 Catalan Government's venues between the 30^th of October and the 8^th of November.

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.

The Catalan Government is disclosing further organisation details of the alternative participatory process that will take place on the 9^th of November, which is replacing the original consultation vote that was banned by Spanish authorities. The Catalan Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, announced that 26,372 volunteers had already signed up on Monday afternoon to help in the organisation of the 9^th of November's vote. 20,000 were initially required, but Homs announced that registration would remain open because "the greater amount of resources we have, the better". In addition, high-schools will be the 700 Catalan Government's venues that will host the 6,000 voting booths. In the small rural towns and villages without high-schools, the Catalan Government is talking with municipalities to find alternatives.

After the civil society demonstration that took place on Sunday asking for the rebuilding of the unity of action and calling early elections, there has been some confusion regarding the Catalan Government's announcement of a "pre-agreement" on "a technical" unity for the alternative participatory process on the 9^th of November. In the morning the Catalan Government's Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, announced such a pre-agreement with the alternative left and radical independence CUP and was hoping the other parties would join it. The CUP refused such a pre-agreement. In addition, the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC and the Catalan green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA met after knowing this announcement and asked for early elections. In addition, they said they will keep working for a shared proposal to strengthen the democratic guarantees for the new November 9.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, which are the civil society associations that organised the massive pro-independence demonstrations in 2012, 2013 and 2014, have given their support to the alternative consultation vote proposed by the Catalan Government but on the condition of early elections taking place within the next three months. On Sunday, the ANC and Òmnium gathered 110,000 people (according to Barcelona local police) in Catalunya Square, three times more than the pro-Spanish-unity demonstration that took place in the same place a week earlier. In front of a pro-independence crowd, the two civil society organisations demanded unity of action from the parties supporting self-determination. They called for "a massive mobilisation" in the alternative participatory process of the 9^th of November, being "the first round" of the early elections, which should become a 'de facto' referendum on independence.

The Catalan Government is currently preparing its budget for the next year. However, it is uncertain whether a new budget will be approved or the current one will have to be extended. The Government's parliamentary supports are uncertain because of self-determination and the prospect of early elections on the horizon of to be transformed into a plebiscite on independence. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU does not have a majority in the Parliament. Its ally over the last two years, the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, is reluctant to reach a deal because the original self-determination consultation vote was cancelled by the Government. Meanwhile, CiU's anti-independence sectors are trying to reach a deal with the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the Spanish Government is trying to promote an anti-independence alliance between these last two.

After the cancellation of the original consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November, parties are preparing for hypothetical early elections, transformed into a de facto referendum on independence. The parliamentary stability alliance between the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC is seriously damaged. This affects the approval of the Catalan Government's budget for 2015 and a potential electoral alliance in such a plebiscite on independence. CiU, formed by the Liberal CDC and the Christian-Democrat UDC, and social-democrat ERC were the three main parties within the pact for the consultation vote scheduled. As preparations for the 9^th of November would have required breaking Spanish law, tensions between them were raised. After the pact was broken, there have been efforts to work together again on different fronts, while UDC is looking for new allies.

The Catalan Government is gradually disclosing details and starting preparations for the alternative consultation process on independence that will take place on the 9^th of November, which replaces the consultation vote also scheduled on that day. Meanwhile, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, celebrates "the excellent news" about the Catalan Government abandoning the previous consultation vote, which had been temporarily suspended by the Constitutional Court. The Spanish Government and the People's Party (PP), chaired by Rajoy, would not want to raise the profile of the minor new vote by acting strongly against it. It seems they are hesitating whether to appeal against it or to tolerate it, in spite of Catalans still being called to cast a ballot about independence from Spain in a non-binding participatory process.