Politics

The People’s Party (PP) looks set to repeat its victory in the Spanish elections but will lose its absolute majority, according to the exit polls designed by Catalan Television TV3. The Conservatives would be the leading force in all the Autonomous Communities except for Catalonia, the Basque Country, Andalusia and Extremadura. However, they are facing a huge decline, as the polls suggest they will return 114-118 representatives, compared to the 186 seats they secured in the 2011 Spanish Elections. The Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) would be the second force in the Spanish Parliament, with 81-85 seats. Alternative left Podemos and anti-Catalan nationalism Ciutadans would be the third and fourth biggest forces respectively. In Catalonia, the majoritarian force would be alternative left coalition En Comú Podem with 12-13 seats, followed by left wing pro-independence ERC (9-11 seats) and Ciutadans (7-8 seats). 

The figure is 3.4 points higher than it was at the same hour, 18.00 (CET), on the day of the 2011 General Elections. The Catalan region with the highest rate of participation so far is Barcelona, with 57.6%, followed by the Girona region with 54.9%, Tarragona with 54.6% and Lleida with 52%. In the whole of Spain, 58.3% of the electorate have already cast their vote, a figure which is slightly higher than in 2011 (57.6%). Journalists from nearly 600 media outlets are accredited and will be following Election Day in the main parties’ headquarters.

The figure is 3.4 points higher than it was at the same hour, 14.00 (CET), on the day of the 2011 General Elections. The Catalan region with the highest rate of participation so far is Barcelona, with 57.6%, followed by the Girona region with 54.9%, Tarragona with 54.6% and Lleida with 52%. In the whole of Spain, 58.3 % of the electorate have already cast their vote, a figure which is slightly higher than in 2011 (57.6%). Journalists from nearly 600 media outlets are accredited and will be following Election Day in the main parties’ headquarters.

This Sunday, more than 35 million Spanish citizens are entitled to elect the 350 MPs in the Spanish Parliament and the 208 members of the Senate. Election Day will take place less than three months after the 27-S Catalan elections, which saw the victory of pro-independence forces – a fact that has definitely focused the electoral campaign and the main parties’ programmes. The 20-D Spanish Elections are also set to be crucial as they may mark the end of the two-party system in Spain comprised of the Conservative People’s Party, PP, and the Spanish Socialist Party, PSOE, which have alternated in the Spanish government since 1982. Two new parties are set to burst into the Spanish Parliament and may have a key role in the post-electoral agreements: anti-Catalan nationalism ‘Ciutadans’ and alternative left ‘Podemos’. They have both shown their force and popular support in the past European, regional and local elections.

'Democràcia i Llibertat' (Democracy and Freedom) gathers together members from Liberal CDC, the party currently leading the Catalan Government, ‘Demòcrates de Catalunya’, the party which split from former CDC partner Christian-Democrat Unió, and ‘Reagrupament’, constituted by former members of left wing ERC. “The name symbolises what we are committed to doing: attaining Catalonia’s freedom through democracy” stated Democràcia i Llibertat’s candidate for Barcelona, Francesc Homs. “Our only instrument to defend our cause is voting” he stated “therefore, every time the ballot boxes are put out we will vote”. The former Catalan Minister for the Presidency assured that the international community will be following the Spanish Elections, but they will pay special attention to “what Catalonia will vote” and see if this vote “has a connection” with the political process that Catalonia is going through.

Left wing ERC is likely to obtain one of its best results in the 20-D Spanish elections, according to many polls. The candidature will be led by Gabriel Rufián, from the pro-independence association of Spanish speakers ‘Súmate’ and member of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC). “Catalonia has to be defended everywhere” he stated adding that “now it is time to win the elections of a neighbouring state which is rejecting any negotiations at all”. ERC and Liberal CDC, the two main pro-independence forces forming cross-party list 'Junts Pel Sí', have decided to run for the Spanish Elections separately.

PSC is the Catalan branch of the Spanish Socialist Party, a force which has alternated in the Spanish Government with the People’s Party (PP) for the last 32 years. Their influence in Catalonia started to decline in 2010 in favour of nationalist and pro-independence parties. Now the Socialists are the third force in the Catalan Parliament and the opposition party in Spain’s Congreso de los Diputados. However, many polls claim their key position in the Spanish chamber might be overtaken by alternative-left Podemos or anti-Catalan Nationalist Ciutadans, both running for the Spanish Elections on the 20-D for the first time. PSC’s candidate for Barcelona, former Spanish Minister of Defence Carme Chacón, is convinced that the Socialists are the only guarantee “to chase Mariano Rajoy out” from the Spanish government and restore “the dialogue” between Catalonia and Spain. 

The Spanish Finance Ministry transferred this morning 3 billion euros from the Spanish Liquidity Point (FLA) corresponding to Catalonia. However there is still 34 million pending to be transferred due to the Ministry’s “invoices checking” procedure. The payment of this 3 billion euros from the FLA comes after the controversial "specific and additional controls" that Spain's executive has imposed on Catalonia to guarantee "transparency" and ensure that “the FLA won’t fund pro-independence whims”, in the words of Spanish Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro. The 3.034 billion euros assigned this year to Catalonia includes the 2.6 billion euros outstanding from 2014’s FLA, which the Catalan government repeatedly asked for in order to pay pending debts, such as those from pharmacies and medical centres.

PPC, the Catalan branch of the conservative People’s Party aims to return the trust of all those citizens who supported the party in 2011 when the PP obtained an absolute majority. “We still have time” stated PPC’s candidate for the Spanish Elections in Barcelona province, Jorge Fernández Díaz who is currently Spanish Minister for Home Affairs. He urged Catalans to “fill the ballot boxes with national pride, seriousness, rigour and hope” and accused the pro-independence forces of being “traitors” for “breaking the constitutional agreement” and assured that “nobody has ever dared to go this far”. According to Fernández Díaz, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is the only guarantee “to get rid of the toxic process which is dividing Catalans” and assured that Spain “is not for sale, nor likely to be broken”.   

Spaniards living abroad will have more time to vote in the 20-D Spanish Elections. Spain’s Electoral Roll Office has twice agreed to extend the deadline for the postal vote: first it was extended from the 12^th of December to the 16^th, and this Wednesday the Spanish bodyhas announced its extension to the 18^th. The aim is to improve a system which was described as “an authentic odyssey” by the Catalan Minister for Public Administration Meritxell Borràs when more than 200,000 Catalans whom were registered to vote in the 27-S Catalan elections couldn’t ultimately do so. This decision to facilitate the vote for the 20-D Spanish Elections contrasts with the Spanish body’s failure to do so for those Catalans living abroad who repeatedly requested an extension of the deadline for voting in the 27-S Catalan elections. 

Anti-Catalan Nationalism Ciutadans is a party born and raised in Catalonia. Although its trajectory has been short, they experienced the highest growth in the past 27-S Catalan elections and became the second force in the Parliament, with 25 MPs. Now they are running for the Spanish Elections for the first time and many polls forecast a great result for them. “Being Catalan doesn’t mean supporting independence” stated Ciutadans’ candidate for Barcelona, Juan Carlos Girauta, and criticised current Catalan President Artur Mas for assuming “what the majority of Catalans want even before they vote”. The party’s position regarding Catalonia’s push for independence has always been clear “Spain’s sovereignty is not negotiable” warned Girauta and assured that “the right of self-determination is only applicable to colonies and countries subjected to tyranny” and therefore “not for Catalonia”. 

Christian-Democrat Unió is the smaller party within the former governing coalition CiU. After the political alliance's break up, Unió is running in the Spanish elections "to represent all those Catalans who defend a moderate position" and believe "in dialogue and agreement" as the only "possible solution" to improve Catalonia's relationship with Spain, stated its leader Josep Anton Duran i Lleida. According to Duran the "pro-independence forces are tricking the citizens" in Catalonia, as they have "already reached an agreement" but refuse "to explain its consequences to the citizens" which he assured "represents electoral fraud". Catalonia's independence, besides being "impossible" will lead to "political and economic instability", assured Duran i Lleida and added that none of the parties involved and "of course not the EU" will accept the rupture of a Member State nor another crisis within the EU "like the Greek one but with greater dimensions".

International experts from different fields debated on independence processes in the EU at the conference "Self-determination Processes: Challenge or Opportunity for the EU?" organised by the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia (DIPLOCAT) and the Centre for European Studies of Jagiellonian University in Krakow. According to DIPLOCAT's Secretary General, Albert Royo, the Catalan process is a "unique opportunity for the EU" to show that a "territorial conflict could be solved in a peaceful and democratic way". Professor of History at Pompeu Fabra University Fernando Guirao added that it would be “absurd” to talk about an automatic expulsion from the EU and Visiting Professor at the College of Europe Michal Natorski noted that "all secession processes are negotiated and finally accepted if they come to terms in a democratic way". Delegate of the Government of Catalonia to Austria, Adam Casals, also attended the conference.

The alternative left in Catalonia is gathered around En Comú Podem, a coalition which is running for the Spanish elections with members from Catalan Green-Socialist party ICV, alternative left-wing Podem, which is the Catalan branch of the Spanish party Podemos, and representatives from the 'En Comú' candidacies, which won significant mayoralties in the last local elections, for example that of Barcelona, with social activist and now Barcelona mayor Ada Colau as its strongest asset. En Comú Podem's programme focuses on social measures to beat the crisis which "is still lashing Spain" and improving the situation "of those who are suffering its consequences", stated its top member, Xavier Domènech. Regarding Catalonia's push for independence, Domènech defended the celebration of a "binding referendum" with "a clear question which can be answered with yes or no", he stated.

The calendar for pro-independence cross-party list 'Junts Pel Sí' and radical left CUP to reach an agreement hasn't stopped despite the campaign for the upcoming Spanish elections. Although CUP reinforced their 'no' to instating Artur Mas as Catalan President after holding their National Debate, party leader Antonio Baños assured that this wasn't "CUP's last word". On the same day as Spain's electoral campaign officially began, 'Junts Pel Sí' presented a social action plan, in response to CUP's call to make a move and negotiate also in the social field. Following this, 'Junts Pel Sí' presented a social action plan at the end of last week which included measures to fight energy poverty and establish the deed of assignment in payment so as to avoid debt continuing for the particulars even though they have been evicted, amongst others. Representatives from both parties assured that such a move had given a breath of fresh air and renewed hope to the talks.