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The Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), linked to the Catalan Government, published “an experimental poll” based on 1,830 interviews on 10 different future scenarios, such as an independent Catalonia within the European Union, an independent Catalonia being expelled from the EU and independence bringing a positive economic impact. In the event that the Spanish Government insists in not changing anything regarding the current relationship between Catalonia and Spain, 62.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum while 22.5% would oppose it and 7.8% would abstain. It is the highest-ever support to independence registered in an opinion poll. On the other hand, if the EU automatically expelled Catalonia if its citizens were to vote for independence, 45.4% would still vote “yes”, 37.6% would vote “no” and 12.7% would abstain. For all scenarios independence is the clear winner.

The Catalan Government’s Spokesperson and Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, has highlighted that the results of a self-determination vote in Catalonia would not be invalidated by a secondary vote held at Spanish level. “This is not about putting the Catalan people’s decision-making capacity in somebody else’s hands”, stated Homs on Friday. The previous day, Homs had proposed to hold such a referendum at Spanish level since he was foreseeing the need to adopt Constitutional changes based on the results of the Catalan self-determination vote. He stated that firstly “the opinion of Catalans” had to be known; secondly, a negotiation based on this vote’s results should be held between Catalan and Spanish authorities; and, thirdly, since it is likely that Constitutional changes will be needed, a referendum at Spanish level should be held.

The Spokesperson of the Catalan Government and Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, stated that the opinion of the Catalan citizens, in the first place, had to be known through a consultation vote. After having achieved this and according to its outcome, negotiations between Catalan and Spanish authorities should take place in order to change the current status quo. The results of such negotiations, which would very likely lead to a reform of Spain’s Constitution, would then have to be voted by all Spaniards through a second referendum, according to Homs’ hypothesis. In an interview with the Spanish nationalist radio station COPE, owned by the Spanish Catholic Church, Homs wondered if “an Autonomous Community has the capacity to propose the start of a Constitution reform-process?”

After a great controversy and outraged reaction from businesspeople, politicians and academics, the Spanish Government has amended its previous decision and on Tuesday evening it announced that it will publish the so-called fiscal balances. This financial instrument shows how much money the citizens and companies from a territory give to the central government and how much of this money comes back in form of funds, investments and services. Previous studies showed that Catalonia has been giving away an average of 8% of its GDP each year since 1986, which represents 6 times the entire Marshall Plan in comparable currencies. The Spanish Government was supposed to publish the fiscal balances in December but a month later it announced it would not do so since they were “used to foster Catalonia’s independence” claims. Catalan parties warned Rajoy not to alter the figures and calculation to produce the result he wishes.

Three parties, which between them represent 63% of the Catalan Parliament, registered a second bill, identical to the motion approved two weeks ago, in order to ensure that the Spanish Parliament will discuss it before the summer. January’s motion and this latest bill both ask the Spanish Parliament to transfer the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Government. The parties are using their MPs in Spain’s Lower Chamber to file their own bill and put it earlier in the plenary’s planning. As Spanish Parliament groups they are entitled to register a certain number of bills to be debated within the next two or three months. Otherwise, there was a risk that the Catalan Parliament’s motion would have to wait 9 months to be debated.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, said that Spain could “consider” the admission of an independent Scotland within the EU. In a front-page article published this Monday in the Financial Times, Margallo argued that if the Scottish people gained independence through a “legal” process, Spain would not interfere. However, the Minister warned that the Scots would have to “join the waiting line and ask for admission” to enter the EU. The article underlined that “Margallo’s nuanced stance towards Scotland stood in marked contrast to his uncompromising rhetoric on Catalonia”, “two fundamentally different” cases according to him. The President of the Catalan People’s Party – Margallo’s party - reacted to the interview and stated that his words had been misinterpreted: Spain would assess Scotland’s admission but would not approve it.

A Professor at the prestigious Paris Institute of Political Studies (Science Po), Jean-Bernard Auby, has advocated for a temporary solution to keep Catalonia within the European Union if it reaches independence from Spain. This agreement should guarantee that Catalonia will not be excluded from the EU even if it does not immediately become a full-member. During a conference in Sciences Po Toulouse organised alongside the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia (Diplocat), Auby insisted that “Catalonia and the Catalans are part of the EU” and for this reason, if they become independent “one shouldn’t, in a mechanical way, impose on them to go through the procedures we impose on those who are complete outsiders”. The conference ‘The right to self-determination of Catalonia. Legality and democratic legitimacy’ is part of a series of debates on the right to self-determination, organised by the Diplocat and scheduled in prestigious universities throughout Europe.

The President of the employer’s association Cercle Català de Negocis (CCN), Albert Pont, stated that part of the Spanish Government’s debt is “odious” and therefore Catalonia cannot recognise this “illegitimate debt”. However, Pont underlined the “willingness” to pay for the proportionate share of the rest of the debt, which should be calculated “item by item”. In an exclusive interview with the CNA, he denounced a public debt generated “for the benefit of no more than a few companies” that “provide works, services and infrastructures” for the Spanish Government. “If Spain does not recognise the independence of Catalonia, Spain should assume its debt completely and the Catalan Government its own debt”, he warned. In addition, Pont denounced the fact that the Spanish Executive is taking away “between €16 billion and €18 billion” from Catalonia each year, a fiscal deficit amounting to “around 9%” of the Catalan GDP. “The IMF already established that fiscal deficits exceeding 4% of the GDP of a territory amounted to colonial relations”, he highlighted. Besides, he explained that “the average custom duty is between 1.4% and 1.5%”. However, Pont ruled out this possibility since a “political solution” will be reached to keep Catalonia within the EU.

The General Assembly of the International Federation of Liberal Youth (IFLRY) approved a motion recognising the self-determination process in Catalonia. Krakow has welcomed this meeting attended by the youth sections of Liberal parties from all over the world. A hundred Liberal parties backed the motion presented by the JNC, the youth section of Catalan Liberal party ‘Convergència Democràctica de Catalunya’ (CDC). CDC is the main force within the two-party Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) that is running the Catalan Government; the other force is the Christian Democrats (UCD). CiU is in favour of holding a self-determination referendum in Catalonia and was involved in the political agreement reached last December to present a specific question and date.

The Catalan business community is deeply annoyed with the Spanish Government for not publishing transparent data on Catalonia’s fiscal contribution to the rest of Spain and therefore not recognising the fiscal deficit. The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, was supposed to issue the so-called fiscal balances last December but their publication was inexplicably delayed. Last Friday, in late January, Montoro announced the fiscal balances would no longer be calculated and published in the present form; instead, he would publish in March the “regionalised public figures” stating the costs of public services per citizen because the fiscal balances were “incomplete and incoherent”. However, on Tuesday, the Minister recognised that they were “correct” but “wrongly used” to support Catalan independence claims.

Alejo Vidal-Quadras, Vice-president of the European Parliament and famous for his strong Spanish nationalist stances, has quitted the People’s Party (PP) after 30 years of membership. Vidal-Quadras has joined the newly-created VOX party, a populist ultra-nationalist force defending a total recentralisation of Spain. The Europarliament’s VP criticises the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s “diagnosis” and “solutions” for the “economic, institutional, moral and national unity” crisis the country is going through. However, after 15 years of being Euro MP for the PP, a few weeks ago it was revealed that the party did not want him on the list for the next European elections. Vidal-Quadras might lead VOX in the next electoral race.

The People’s Party (PP) is holding a convention in Barcelona, with leading figures of the party, including PM Mariano Rajoy, to reject Catalonia’s self-determination and independence. On Friday, the PP’s Secretary General, María Dolores de Cospedal, stated that her party “will not allow Catalonia to split from Spain through machete strikes”. She added that “no one can bite off [a chunk of] a country” and that an independent Catalonia “will be born in bankruptcy”. In addition, the leader of the PP’s Catalan branch, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, accused the Catalan President of “imposing” the self-determination vote. Besides, she emphasised that the PP “had suffered a lot” in the Basque Country, which is also happening in Catalonia. Within the convention there is a conference of a former PP member who chairs the Association of Terrorism Victims.

The leadership of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) has decided to remove the 3 MPs who supported Catalonia’s self-determination from their positions within the party organisation and at the Catalan Parliament. However, the MPS were neither expelled from the party, nor from the parliamentary group. This way, the PSC avoids passing from 20 to 17 MPs and therefore becoming the 4^th largest group at the Catalan Parliament, behind the 19 MPs of the People’s Party. In the last few days, the PSC leadership was insisting that the 3 MPs should quit the Parliament and leave their seat to the next person on the list. But the rebel MPs rejected this idea since, according to them, they represent a share of the voters who elected PSC representatives because they ran in the last elections supporting the organisation of a legal self-determination vote this term.

The Bureau of the Spanish Parliament has accepted a debate on the Catalan Parliament’s bill requesting the transfer to the Catalan Executive of the powers to organise referendums, using Article 150.2 of the Spanish Constitution. The Bureau, totally controlled by the People’s Party (PP), has not discussed the contents and has only approved requesting the Catalan Parliament to send the bill’s full dossier, the step before putting the bill on the agenda. The motion would be debated in September, although there is a chance it could be rescheduled for June. However, Catalan parties will register an identical bill at the Spanish Parliament to discuss it even earlier, probably in March. The bill was approved by the Catalan Parliament with 87 ‘yes’ votes, 43 ‘no’ votes and 3 abstentions that considered the request was slowing down self-determination.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, stated in a TV interview on Monday evening that he has “a plan” to prevent Catalonia’s self-determination and “guaranteed” that “the independence of any Spanish territory will not happen while [he is] in office”. Rajoy emphasised that his plan’s guidelines are, firstly, “implementing the law”. The Spanish PM said he is “ready for any scenario that might happen”, but refused to disclose any measure. Secondly, he would be “working on increasing the bonds that have always united the whole Catalan people and the people living in Catalonia that are not born in Catalonia with the whole Spanish people”. Thirdly, “working to solve the problems of the Spanish and Catalan economies”, as well as the funding of the Catalan Government. However, Rajoy stated he “will not call” the Catalan President, Artur Mas, despite the offers to talk.