referendum

Catalonia's two main pro-independence parties, the Liberal CDC – which runs the Catalan Government – and the Social-Democrat ERC – which has been backing the Executive for the last 2 years – have finally reached an agreement about how to run in the next Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September and called in order to become a 'de facto' referendum on independence from Spain. This is the only way left for Catalan citizens to hold a legal and free vote on the issue, after the Spanish Government has unilaterally blocked any discussion on the issue despite the clear democratic mandate of the last Catalan elections, held in November 2012, when an absolute majority of parties supporting the organisation of a legal self-determination referendum was elected. On Monday night, after months of discussions and public disagreements, the President of the Catalan Government and CDC leader, Artur Mas, and the leader of the ERC, Oriol Junqueras, finally reached an agreement to run together but in a unitary list to be formed by many independents and representatives from civil society.

On Monday, a summit among the main pro-independence parties and civil society organisations has been held at the Catalan President's office, the Generalitat Palace, in Barcelona. The meeting ended without a definitive agreement, although some attendees did say there was a "positive" atmosphere. An electoral list without professional politicians but grouping all the political sensitivities of the pro-independence forces is on the discussion table after days of intense public debate. This option is backed by the main civil society organisations promoting Catalonia's independence from Spain, the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, as well as by the main pro-independence left-wing parties, namely the Social-Democrat ERC and the alternative left CUP. However, the governing Liberal party CDC is against this formula as it would exclude the incumbent Catalan President, Artur Mas, from running in the elections that he would call early in order to transform them into a 'de facto' referendum on independence.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) has overwhelmingly voted 'yes' to the internal consultation on its participation in the negotiations aimed at shaping a highly transversal electoral proposal for the 27-S elections. On Monday, the President of the ANC, Jordi Sànchez said that in the coming days his organisation will talk with all the stakeholders involved in trying to reach the best agreement for Catalan independence, remaining open to different options. However, if a deal is not reached by 20 July, the ANC will leave the negotiation process that – according to Sànchez – will have to be completely public. In January, Mas' original proposal was to have a single list with political parties and civil society organisations but parties such as ERC rejected the idea, arguing for the need to have both right-wing and left-wing pro-independence options. In June, Mas' second proposal was to have a unitary list led by pro-independence organisations that – according to their will – could invite politicians on board.

Tensions over the issue of independence between the two parties forming the CiU coalition have caused a government crisis in Catalonia. Three ministers from the Christian-Democrat party UDC, the smaller party within the CiU, have left government after their allies of 37 years, CDC, presented them with an “ultimatum”. The governing council of UDC decided on Wednesday, with 16 votes in favour, 10 against and 2 abstentions, that Vice-president Joana Ortega, Minister of Agriculture Josep Maria Pelegrí and Minister of Home Affairs Ramon Espadaler, who is also the secretary general of UDC, should quit Artur Mas’ government. UDC voted on Sunday by a slim majority in favour of an ambiguous stance on the issue of independence, in which the party supported the right to self-determination but fell short of stating whether or not Catalonia should actually vote ‘yes’ to full independence from Spain. Following the result, the Liberal party CDC, led by Mas, urged their coalition partners to state clearly whether or not they are for independence. Elections to the Catalan Parliament are expected to be held on the 27 of September, and may be considered a plebiscite on independence. Tensions between CDC and UDC over the reluctance of the latter to clearly support independence make it unlikely that they will run together, although UDC has said it will still provide parliamentary support to CDC in the coming months and won’t split the coalition at local level.

The President of the Catalan government, Artur Mas, has told parties favouring the right to self-determination on Thursday to "enhance" the plebiscitary character of the 27-S elections after the Spanish Constitutional Court (TC) ruled the Catalan government's preparations for the 9-N election unconstitutional. The 9-N ballot asked voters whether Catalonia should be independent. According to Mas, the judgment evidences that the Constitution has become a "dead end" and that there is no other route left except for a plebiscitary vote. He warned that the TC cannot "override or erase" the vote of 2.3 million people on 9-N.

International experts have participated in a day of debate over the hypothetical scenarios and the possible consequences regarding membership or expulsion from the European Union of an independent Catalonia. The panellists ruled out automatic expulsion, as well as automatic membership, in any scenario. Graham Avery, Senior Adviser of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC), underlined that "the most important" element in deciding what would happen to an independent Catalonia would be "the process" through which it achieves this independence. If it was carried out with the agreement of the Spanish Government, the transition towards full EU membership would be quite fast and smooth. If it was done unilaterally, then a wide range of scenarios are possible, with risks and costs rising. However, a majority of experts have stated that even in the worst case scenario, the costs would not be as high as the Spanish Government is saying. In addition, they affirmed that the EU is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach and that a transition regime is likely to be set up, with basic policies and freedoms not being interrupted.

The leader of the alternative left and green coalition Barcelona en Comú, Ada Colau, has announced that she will attend the massive demonstration for independence scheduled for Catalonia's National Day (11 September). In 2014, the demonstration gathered more than 1.8 million people in Barcelona. Colau won the municipal elections 2 weeks ago and therefore is likely to become the next Mayor of the Catalan capital. Last week, she said she would not join the self-determination road map agreed between the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the left-wing independence party ERC because she refuses to reach agreements with the right-wing CiU. Pro-Spanish unity media started to speculate that she did not support Catalonia's self-determination process. This Monday Colau highlighted her commitment to the process and announced her will to contribute "to a constituent process that should allow for real sovereignty", expanding the current process' plurality.

The leadership of the Christian-Democrat party UDC supports Catalonia's self-determination but it is against full independence; it supports the creation of a Catalan State with greater powers than it currently has while remaining within Spain, which should embrace its plurinational nature and become a confederal country. However, an important part of UDC's base does support independence and has been trying to force an open debate and consultation on it within the party, in order to set the official party stance on this issue. Currently, the leadership's vision represents UDC's traditional stance on this issue, but the party does not have an official stance on independence yet. This situation has provoked tensions within the small party but also with their allies for the last three-and-a-half decades, the Liberal party CDC, which is the largest force within the two-party coalition CiU that currently runs the Catalan Government. UDC announced an internal consultation on 14 June to fix the party's definitive stance on this debate. However, the leadership has presented a question that avoids independence; a formulation that has created quite some controversy among UDC members.

The most likely future Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, has held a press conference the day after election night, in which her alternative left, green and pro-self-determination coalition Barcelona en Comú became the most-voted party in the Catalan capital, obtaining 11 seats, far from the 21-seat absolute majority. Colau stated that she would “start a round of talks” with the other left-wing parties to look for government agreements as of this Monday. She will contact the social-democrat Catalan independence party ERC (5 seats), the Catalan Socialist Party (4 seats) and the radical independence and alternative left-wing party CUP (3 seats). However, she did not rule out the possibility of reaching specific agreements with other parties on some important issues. She also highlighted her commitment to Catalonia’s right to self-determination. In addition, Colau also accused the current Mayor from the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Xavier Trias, of signing last-minute contracts before leaving office.

Catalans are holding their municipal elections on Sunday, while the elections to the Catalan Parliament are to be held in September, as opposed to other parts of Spain, where they are voting for their regional parliaments on Sunday. These municipal elections come after 7 years of economic crisis and also with very uncertain political horizons. Two debates have dominated the campaign: Catalonia’s independence and the rise of new or secondary parties that promise to change the current model. For many people in Catalonia, Sunday’s elections will be a first stage of the ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence that is going to take place with the Catalan elections on 27 September. It is also the opportunity to support changing the current political, economic and social model, with the rise of alternative left coalitions. Furthermore, majorities and town halls go through significant changes, particularly in Barcelona and the cities of its Metropolitan Area, where there are no clear winners forecast and surprises are likely to happen.

The Parliament of Denmark approved on Tuesday a proposal debated a week ago requesting Spain and Catalonia to hold "a peaceful and democratic dialogue" on "the question of Catalonia's independence". The motion was approved in the end with the support of 6 of the 8 parliamentary groups and the abstention of the other two, resulting in 64 votes in favour, 41 abstentions and 0 votes against. There have been rumours suggesting that Spanish Government pressure was the reason why the main opposition party, the Liberal Venstre, abstained despite last week announcing its support. The other group which abstained was the extreme-right Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti). The proposal is the answer the Danish Foreign Affairs Minister, Martin Lidegaard, from the Danish Social Liberal Party, gave to a question filed by an MP from the Red-Green Alliance, Nikolaj Villumsen.

Jordi Sánchez, the new President of the civil society organisation Catalan National Assembly (ANC), which co-organised the massive pro-independence rallies, has ruled out the possibility of unilaterally declaring independence the day after the next Catalan Parliament elections, should a clear majority of pro-independence parties win. These elections are presented by the Catalan Government and by the parties supporting independence as a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on this issue, since it is the only option left to hold a legal self-determination vote after the unilateral veto and no-to-everything attitude of the Spanish Government during the last two-and-a-half years. However, even though Sánchez completely supports such a plebiscite, he stated that a unilateral declaration of independence on the day after “would not be possible” and “it is not the road to take”. “I will not send signals about things I believe will not happen”, added Sánchez, who on Saturday was elected to lead the ANC.

7 of the 8 groups sitting in the Parliament of Denmark have supported on Tuesday evening "a peaceful and democratic dialogue between Catalonia and the Spanish Government in Madrid" to solve the current political conflict. For 45 minutes, the Danish Chamber debated Catalonia's right to self-determination, after Nikolaj Villumsen, an MP from the Red-Green Alliance (Enhedslisten) registered a question about this issue addressed to the Foreign Affairs Minister, Martin Lidegaard (from the Danish Social Liberal Party). Villumsen linked Catalonia's case to the peaceful resolution of conflicts within the European Union today through democratic referendums. All the parties sitting in the Parliament, except the extreme-right Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti), supported the Minister's answer, which put Catalonia and Spain at an equal level. The debate was held this Tuesday, but the vote on the motion will take place next week.

Spain is home to around 300,000 registered British nationals, 20,000 of whom reside in Catalonia and retain the right to vote in the forthcoming general elections in the UK on the 7^th of May, according to date from the Spanish Statistics Institute given in 2014. The election this year is especially important as polls suggest that no combination of parties will win a stable majority which could be the end of the road for a strong government. Moreover, the election is more important than usual for British nationals living in Spain as in the rest of Europe as Cameron has promised that a Conservative victory will renegotiate Britain’s relations with the EU and put the result to an in/out referendum on membership by the end of 2017. A British exit from Europe could potentially lead to British nationals abroad facing several difficulties in regards to freedom of movement across Europe. On the other hand, May 7th could also mark the point of no return for the troubled union between England and Scotland, due to a surge in support for the secessionist Scottish National Party (SNP).

Ciutadans (C’s), the anti-Catalan nationalism party that could become Spain’s third-largest party according to many polls, stated on Monday that they will do everything in their power to stop the next massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona from happening. Since 2012, every 11^th of September (which is Catalonia’s National Day), the main pro-independence civil society associations have organised a massive rally, such as the 400 km-long human chain spanning Catalonia from north to south in 2013 and the V-shaped demonstration occupying more than 11 km of Barcelona’s two main avenues in 2014. More than 1.5 million people participated in each of the demonstrations, which have always been peaceful and cheerful, claiming Catalonia’s right to self-determination. This year, another massive demonstration is planned, which is to occupy all of Meridiana Avenue, symbolically going from the Catalan Parliament to outside the city.