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The Spanish Executive has presented a 720-page report in which it proposes 120 measures “to eliminate duplications” and “improve the coordination” between government levels in order to “rationalise” and “increase the efficiency” of the public sector. However, the initiative proposes a true recentralisation of Spain, since almost all the measures point towards transferring powers and services back to the Spanish Government. The Catalan Executive and the non-Spanish-nationalist parties have announced a common front to stop “the pruning” of Catalonia’s self-government. Madrid’s document proposes the direct elimination of several institutions that are defined in the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, approved by citizens through a binding referendum. Furthermore, it cancels pending power devolutions, which had been planned for years but whose effective transfer has been constantly delayed.

The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, “regretted” on Tuesday evening the “confusion” about having announced in October he was cancelling a €1.76 billion transfer to the Catalan Government. Without this scheduled payment, the Catalan Executive is having serious problems to fund the 1.58% deficit approved for 2013. “These things can happen” said Montoro. In late October – 10 weeks before the end of the year – the Spanish Minister announced that the Catalan Government would not receive the €1.76 billion requested from the Liquidity Fund for the Autonomous Communities (FLA) since this money would be used by the Service Provider Fund to pay for arrear invoices. A week ago, the Catalan Government confirmed Montoro would transfer the €1.76 billion.

In a clear reference to the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, the former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar – who chairs the governing People’s Party (PP) think tank – asked for the approval of a former law sentencing any public figure organising a referendum that has previously been declared illegal to a 5-year incarceration. Aznar, who led the Spanish Government between 1996 and 2004, is a strong supporter of Spanish nationalist stances and has requested PM Mariano Rajoy to take a harder approach regarding Catalonia’s self-determination claims. The PP replied Aznar that currently there are “enough mechanisms” “guaranteeing” that an illegal vote will not take place. The Catalan President criticised Aznar’s “old-fashioned language”.

The parties supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination regret the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC)’s decision to step down from giving active support to this political process. Last week the PSC’s leadership decided not to back any initiative in favour of a self-determination vote that has not been agreed in advance with the Spanish Government, which totally rejects the idea and even refuses to talk about it. The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, asked the PSC “not to get off the train”, stressing the party’s tradition of defending Catalan language, culture, identity and self-government. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) consider the PSC is now against a self-determination vote.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is federated to the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), has decided to harden its strategy towards Catalonia’s right to self-determination. In the PSOE’s extraordinary Political Conference, which took place last weekend, the PSC and the PSOE agreed not to break their union and to offer a more coordinated message. The PSC supports the Catalan people’s right to self-determination, but the PSOE totally rejects it. The compromise solution will be that the Catalan Socialists will stop making explicit contributions for an agreed self-determination vote in Catalonia and will focus on opposing any initiative in favour of Catalonia’s self-determination that has not been previously agreed with the Spanish institutions.

The Parliament of Catalonia rejected a proposal to call for a “unilateral” self-determination referendum in the event that the Spanish State “blocked” the possibility of organising a vote by agreement. The motion was rejected with the votes of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – and the three parties defending the unity of Spain: the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), the People’s Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government, and the anti-Catalan nationalism and populist party Ciutadans (C’s). The motion supporting the idea of calling for a self-determination referendum in “a unilateral way” had been presented by the radical left-wing and independence party CUP, which has only 3 MPs in the 135-seat chamber. However it was also backed by the second-largest group, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and some of the MPs from the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

The Catalan Government has presented its budget proposal for 2014, which posts a 1% deficit, representing a 35.5% annual reduction and amounting to €1.98 billion, in line with the 2014 deficit targets imposed by the Spanish Government. The budget prioritises healthcare, education and social policies, which represent 71% of the total non-financial spending. Non-financial spending grows by 0.2% and reaches €20.30 billion, while the total spending amounts to €29.31 billion. The Catalan Finance Minister stressed that spending had not been reduced this year since in the last 3 years it had already dropped by 22%. Budget cuts “have reached their limit”, as otherwise “social cohesion” and “the Welfare State” would “be at risk” he said. In 2014 the Catalan Executive will spend the same per inhabitant as it was doing in 2004 taking into account inflation (€1,901).The adjustment for 2014 focuses on increasing revenue by €3.2 billion, mostly through new taxes (€910 million) and the sales of assets and privatisations (€2.32 billion). On top of this, the Catalan Government forecasts a 0.9% economic growth for 2014, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%).

The Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, considered that “to reform the Constitution in order to satisfy those who will not be satisfied”, referring to the citizens supporting Catalonia’s independence from Spain, who represent more than 50% of Catalans according to polls, would be “a great mistake”. Answering a question from the former Catalan President José Montilla, Rajoy stated before the Senate that “Spain and national sovereignty are not negotiable”. However, despite these red lines, Rajoy affirmed that his attitude towards Catalonia is “to talk” in order to find a negotiated way out. More than 80% of Catalans would like to hold a self-determination vote in Catalonia.

The Spanish Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría made it clear that “members of the Spanish Government” and “members of the Generalitat [Catalan Government]” have been holding meetings in the past few weeks, including the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy. “We inform about some of them and about others we do not, out of consideration for the delicate subject”, she stated. Sáenz de Santamaría insisted that talks were just starting; “we are in an incipient phase”, she stressed, “to acknowledge that channels for negotiation have to be found”. However, she totally rejected the main demand from a broad majority of Catalan society, for allowing a self-determination vote to take place in Catalonia. The Deputy PM did not want to disclose any part of the Spanish Government’s strategy on how to handle the issue. However, she praised the figure of the ‘number 2’ of the Centre Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida.

In the last few days, there has been an attempt to build bridges between Catalonia and Spain, despite the visible increase of tension between the two governments. In public the Catalan and Spanish Executives are heading for a collision but at the same time discreet manoeuvres explore alternative ways out. This Tuesday, the ‘number 2’ of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – Josep Antoni Duran I Lleida acknowledged that he met with the Spanish Prime Minister and leader of the People’s Party (PP) Mariano Rajoy on the 16^th October. Besides, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, met on Friday with the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) to talk about a constitutional change. Today, the Spokesperson of the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, stated that Catalonia is waiting for an offer from the Spanish establishment. Although “there is no deadline” for this offer, the self-determination process will not be waiting for it, although if it arrives it will be studied.

The Catalan Government has published a report listing all the Spanish Executive’s disloyalties towards Catalonia including not respecting legislation, devolved powers and cultural aspects. The 50-page document has a chapter quantifying the costs of such disloyalty, which totals €9.375 billion, according to the Catalan Government. €5.748 billion correspond to infrastructure which has not been built; €672 million to a reduction in institutional transfers; €1.715 billion to spending increases due to the Spanish Government’s unilateral decisions; and €1.239 to revenue reductions due to similar unilateral decisions which have never been compensated. The report does not take into account the so-called fiscal deficit – the €16.5 billion that each year Catalan tax-payers transfer to the rest of Spain. The Catalan Government emphasised that there has been “a permanent disloyal activity” since 2000.

On Saturday, Spain’s National Day, those opposing Catalan independence and defending Spain’s unity organised a large-scale demonstration in Barcelona. In absolute terms, the demonstration was far from gathering as many people as the Catalan independence demonstration a month ago or that of 2012. However, it was still a massive concentration of people, gathering around 30,000 people according to the local police, 105,000 according to the Spanish Government and 160,000 according to the organisers. The People’s Party and the anti-Catalan nationalism party Ciutadans (C’s) attended the demonstration. The organisers had been received on Thursday by the Presidents of the Catalan Government and Parliament.

In addition, the Catalan Chamber has also approved setting up the exact date, question and legal process for the self-determination vote before the end of the year. The resolution was approved with 65% of the Catalan Parliament’s members voting in favour. However, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) – which is part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – finally decided to vote against the text. The request was approved with the votes of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC), the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) and the radical left wing and independence party CUP. The PSC, the People’s Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government – and the anti-Catalan nationalist and populist party Ciutadans (C’s) voted against.

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, and the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) agreed on speeding up the process of building “state structures” and drafting the “most social budget” in Catalonia’s recent history. In addition, Mas criticised the ‘third way’ between independence from Spain and the current situation proposed by the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and CiU’s ‘number 2’, saying that Catalans “have been trying” this way “for the last 100 years” and “it has never worked”. Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP) and Ciutadans (C’s) called on Mas to stop the self-determination process. However, the main Catalan parties, from left to right and representing 77% of the parliamentary seats, presented a common text supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination through a legal vote.

Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, the leader of Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC) – which is the Christian-Democrat party and smaller force within the two-party Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – insisted that he does not want independence from Spain, but a Catalan state within a Spanish Confederation. Duran – who is also CiU’s ‘number 2’ – has been proposing this formula for years. However, in the last few months and particularly on the occasion of the 400-kilometre human chain, Duran has emphasised his stance, while the larger party within CiU – the Liberal Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC) – was increasingly supporting independence. Nevertheless, Duran insisted that Catalonia must vote in a self-determination referendum, where he will defend a third way “between independence and submission”.