polls

2,695 polling stations open across Catalonia as day starts with major commuter train disruptions

Barcelona en Comú's Ada Colau, Socialist Jaume Collboni, and Trias per Barcelona's Xavier Trias compete for mayorship

Spain heads to polls with Catalan independence still one of the most divisive issues among parties in Madrid

Government could call fresh polls coinciding with European, regional, and local elections

Pro-independence ERC would surpass En Comú Podem as Catalonia’s most voted party

Only 41% of respondents want Catalonia to be an independent state, while those wanting to remain in Spain rise to 54%

As the election draws closer, main parties call for tactical vote to prevent other block from winning

Pro-independence ERC is slightly ahead, but pro-independence parties might still lose majority in Parliament

Spaniards go to polls again this Sunday, after a ballot on the 20th of December 2015 resulted in a fragmented parliament where no party had the 176 seats required to form a government. This election may mark the end of the two-party system comprised of the Conservative People’s Party, PP, and the Spanish Socialist Party, PSOE, which have alternated in the Spanish government since 1982. Two new parties burst in the last Spanish Elections are set to have a key role to reach agreements and form a new government: Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’ and alternative left ‘Podemos’. According to most polls, governing PP is set to win the elections but without majority, as it happened in December, when they got 123 MPs in the 350-seat Spanish Parliament. PSOE suffered a huge decline and obtained 90 seats. 'Podemos' was third force with 68 seats and 'Ciutadans' obtained 40 MPs.

The coalition will be led by the social activist Ada Colau, former spokeswoman of the Platform for People Affected by Mortgages (PAH), a Spanish grassroots organisation that helped citizens to stop evictions, promoted housing rights and in 2013 was awarded the European’s Citizens Prize. The local left-wing front will be mainly formed by the Catalan Green Socialist and post-Communist coalition ICV-EUiA and several parties campaigning for a re-launching of democracy, such as the Socialist and pro-Catalan independence Procés Constituent and the Spanish far-left party aimed at breaking the bipartisan political model Podemos. However, the main Catalan pro-independence far-left party CUP is working on a separate candidature for the same local elections that will take place on the 24^th of May.  

According to the exit polls, the parties supporting independence would obtain between 58% and 64% of the seats in the Catalan Parliament in the elections with the highest voter turnout ever. The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would win the elections again but it might lose some support, falling far short of an absolute majority. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would double its results, becoming the second largest force in the Parliament for the first time ever. Support for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would plummet and it could lose 40% of its seats. The People’s Party (PP) might stagnate or even lose 2 seats. The Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) might stagnate or increase by 2 seats. The anti-Catalan nationalist party could double its results but will probably remain a small party. The radical left-wing and pro-independence CUP could enter the Parliament.

Elections for the Catalan Parliament, which will elect the next President of the Catalan Government, are to be held on the 25th of November. The two-week electoral campaign has started, with Catalonia’s independence as the main topic of debate, while opposition parties are trying to put the budget cuts and the recovery from the economic crisis upfront. On Thursday, minutes before midnight, political parties officially kicked off the campaign, although the race started a month and a half ago, when the Catalan President, Artur Mas, called for early elections. Surveys indicate that Mas’ party, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), will win the elections again, with improved results and close to an absolute majority. Catalonia’s political map may change with the Socialist Party likely to drop.

Just before the Catalan election campaign kicks off, the survey centres run by the Spanish and the Catalan governments have both issued their own polls. 57% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum, according to the Catalan survey. In June the percentage was 51%. The Spanish survey did not include the question. Both polls agree that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – currently running the Catalan Government – would gain more votes, close to obtaining an absolute majority. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is against independence and already obtained its worst results ever in 2010, would lose between 30% and 45% of MPs. The People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, but might become the party in second place. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) would increase its representation by 40% to 70% and might become the third party.