Pro-independence parties would clearly win the Catalan elections but the governing CiU would lose support

Barcelona (ACN).- According to the exit polls, the parties supporting independence would obtain between 58% and 64% of the seats in the Catalan Parliament in the elections with the highest turnout ever. The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would win the elections again but it might lose some support, falling far short of an absolute majority. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would double its results, becoming the second largest force in the Parliament for the first time ever. Support for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would plummet and it could lose 40% of its seats. The People’s Party (PP) might stagnate or even lose 2 seats. The Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) might stagnate or increase by 2 seats. The anti-Catalan nationalist Ciutadans (C’s) could double results but will probably remain a small party. The radical left-wing and pro-independence CUP could enter the Parliament. The radical independence party ‘Solidaritat’ (SI) would disappear from the Catalan chamber.

According to the exit poll issued by the Catalan Public Television Broadcaster, the CiU, which runs the Catalan Government, would decrease from 62 MPs to 54-57 seats. The absolute majority is 68 MPs in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament. The ERC would increase from 10 MPs to 20-23 seats. Support for the PSC would plummet from 28 MPs to 16-18 seats. The PP would repeat the current 18 seats or even lose up to 2 MPs. The ICV-EUiA would stagnate with 10 MPs or increase their results by up to 2 seats. The C’s would double their results from the current 3 MPs to 6-7 seats. The CUP would enter the Catalan Parliament for the first time with 5-6 MPs. The SI would pass from the 4 seats that they won in the last elections to zero this time.

Parties supporting the celebration of an independence referendum within the next four years would represent between 66% and 72.5% of the MPs. They are the CiU, the ERC, the ICV and the CUP. In addition, if the PSC seats are added, as the party defends a “legal referendum” prior to a change in the Spanish Constitution, they would represent between 77% and 86% of MPs in the Catalan Parliament.

Parties opposing independence might represent between 28% and 32% of the seats in the Catalan Parliament. They are also those that are refusing any sort of self-determination referendum. Those parties clearly supporting independence would obtain between 58% and 64% of the seats in the Catalan Parliament. If the ICV-EUiA, which would support independence if Spain does not change the current model, is counted too, parties sympathetic to independence might represent between 66% and 72.5% of the MPs.