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The Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), linked to the Catalan Government, published “an experimental poll” based on 1,830 interviews on 10 different future scenarios, such as an independent Catalonia within the European Union, an independent Catalonia being expelled from the EU and independence bringing a positive economic impact. In the event that the Spanish Government insists in not changing anything regarding the current relationship between Catalonia and Spain, 62.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum while 22.5% would oppose it and 7.8% would abstain. It is the highest-ever support to independence registered in an opinion poll. On the other hand, if the EU automatically expelled Catalonia if its citizens were to vote for independence, 45.4% would still vote “yes”, 37.6% would vote “no” and 12.7% would abstain. For all scenarios independence is the clear winner.

The Catalan Government’s Spokesperson and Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, has highlighted that the results of a self-determination vote in Catalonia would not be invalidated by a secondary vote held at Spanish level. “This is not about putting the Catalan people’s decision-making capacity in somebody else’s hands”, stated Homs on Friday. The previous day, Homs had proposed to hold such a referendum at Spanish level since he was foreseeing the need to adopt Constitutional changes based on the results of the Catalan self-determination vote. He stated that firstly “the opinion of Catalans” had to be known; secondly, a negotiation based on this vote’s results should be held between Catalan and Spanish authorities; and, thirdly, since it is likely that Constitutional changes will be needed, a referendum at Spanish level should be held.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, said that Spain could “consider” the admission of an independent Scotland within the EU. In a front-page article published this Monday in the Financial Times, Margallo argued that if the Scottish people gained independence through a “legal” process, Spain would not interfere. However, the Minister warned that the Scots would have to “join the waiting line and ask for admission” to enter the EU. The article underlined that “Margallo’s nuanced stance towards Scotland stood in marked contrast to his uncompromising rhetoric on Catalonia”, “two fundamentally different” cases according to him. The President of the Catalan People’s Party – Margallo’s party - reacted to the interview and stated that his words had been misinterpreted: Spain would assess Scotland’s admission but would not approve it.

A Professor at the prestigious Paris Institute of Political Studies (Science Po), Jean-Bernard Auby, has advocated for a temporary solution to keep Catalonia within the European Union if it reaches independence from Spain. This agreement should guarantee that Catalonia will not be excluded from the EU even if it does not immediately become a full-member. During a conference in Sciences Po Toulouse organised alongside the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia (Diplocat), Auby insisted that “Catalonia and the Catalans are part of the EU” and for this reason, if they become independent “one shouldn’t, in a mechanical way, impose on them to go through the procedures we impose on those who are complete outsiders”. The conference ‘The right to self-determination of Catalonia. Legality and democratic legitimacy’ is part of a series of debates on the right to self-determination, organised by the Diplocat and scheduled in prestigious universities throughout Europe.

The President of the employer’s association Cercle Català de Negocis (CCN), Albert Pont, stated that part of the Spanish Government’s debt is “odious” and therefore Catalonia cannot recognise this “illegitimate debt”. However, Pont underlined the “willingness” to pay for the proportionate share of the rest of the debt, which should be calculated “item by item”. In an exclusive interview with the CNA, he denounced a public debt generated “for the benefit of no more than a few companies” that “provide works, services and infrastructures” for the Spanish Government. “If Spain does not recognise the independence of Catalonia, Spain should assume its debt completely and the Catalan Government its own debt”, he warned. In addition, Pont denounced the fact that the Spanish Executive is taking away “between €16 billion and €18 billion” from Catalonia each year, a fiscal deficit amounting to “around 9%” of the Catalan GDP. “The IMF already established that fiscal deficits exceeding 4% of the GDP of a territory amounted to colonial relations”, he highlighted. Besides, he explained that “the average custom duty is between 1.4% and 1.5%”. However, Pont ruled out this possibility since a “political solution” will be reached to keep Catalonia within the EU.

The General Assembly of the International Federation of Liberal Youth (IFLRY) approved a motion recognising the self-determination process in Catalonia. Krakow has welcomed this meeting attended by the youth sections of Liberal parties from all over the world. A hundred Liberal parties backed the motion presented by the JNC, the youth section of Catalan Liberal party ‘Convergència Democràctica de Catalunya’ (CDC). CDC is the main force within the two-party Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) that is running the Catalan Government; the other force is the Christian Democrats (UCD). CiU is in favour of holding a self-determination referendum in Catalonia and was involved in the political agreement reached last December to present a specific question and date.

In appeal, the Spanish Supreme Court has sided with the family who requested their son to be taught in Spanish in school, alongside Catalan. Despite the Constitution not advocating pupils had “the right to be taught in Spanish”, but only stating they had “the right and duty to know Spanish”, a dozen families have requested their children to be taught in this language, turning to the judicial system. Whilst the Constitutional Court has validated on two occasions the Catalan schooling system, based on Catalan as first language of instruction, the Supreme Court ruled against it. The Catalan Government was offering individualised attention to these children, but the judicial decision states that Spanish has to be used for “the entire class of the pupil”, even though the rest of the pupils have not requested to be taught in this language.

Alejo Vidal-Quadras, Vice-president of the European Parliament and famous for his strong Spanish nationalist stances, has quitted the People’s Party (PP) after 30 years of membership. Vidal-Quadras has joined the newly-created VOX party, a populist ultra-nationalist force defending a total recentralisation of Spain. The Europarliament’s VP criticises the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s “diagnosis” and “solutions” for the “economic, institutional, moral and national unity” crisis the country is going through. However, after 15 years of being Euro MP for the PP, a few weeks ago it was revealed that the party did not want him on the list for the next European elections. Vidal-Quadras might lead VOX in the next electoral race.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy also said that an independent Scotland would be “out of the European Union, the United Nations and all the applicable international treaties for being part of the UK”. Regarding the Catalan Parliament’s bill to formally request the transfer of the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Executive, based on Article 150.2 of the Constitution, Rajoy has categorically rejected the idea. He stated that his stance on Catalonia’s self-determination “is clear” and “does not include nuances”. In addition, Rajoy said that he is “always open to dialogue” but that “it is impossible to talk” with Catalonia because of “a continuous process of unilateral decisions”. Furthermore, the Deputy Prime Minister insisted that a self-determination vote “cannot take place” and “goes against the Constitution”.

The Spanish Education Minister, José Ignacio Wert, emphasised the need to have a common and single history of Spain taught in all the Autonomous Communities. With the Education Reform he is currently proposing, the history curriculum will be imposed by Madrid and the Autonomous Communities will only be able to add a small portion referring to their own history. However, such additional contentswill be excluded from the final exams and therefore pupils will tend to ignorethem. With this initiative, Wert aims to impose a single interpretation of the historic facts affecting Spain’s history and nation-building. Lately, the Spanish Government, run by the People’s Party (PP), has repeatedly stated that Spain is “the oldest nation in Europe” and is now focusing on the education system to spread this idea.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

The Catalan Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, has ironically stated that the situation in Catalonia “must be the most international of political domestic issues in the wide world”, if the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy is talking about it before the US President. Homs exclaimed: “every time, people say it is an internal issue and that it would be a mistake to treat it internationally, but Rajoy cannot stop talking about it in his public appearances”. Homs praised the international community for their silence on the Catalan issue, as they have likely been “pressured” by Spain to voice their disapproval. However, he did not directly refer to Barack Obama, who had avoided commenting on Catalonia’s potential independence at the White House press conference on Monday evening.

Next to the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (who went to the White House), the President of the United States, Barack Obama, did not talk about Catalonia despite being asked about it directly by a journalist. Obama did not repeat the formula expressed by other international leaders – it is Spain’s internal matter – but instead preferred to avoid the issue. He did not explicitly back the Spanish PM, despite the fact that Rajoy had stated, only a few minutes earlier, that “Catalonia’s independence will not happen”. Rajoy’s meeting with Obama and the following press conference at the White House were also controversial because the Spanish Government banned several media that were covering the trip and only allowed one Catalan newspaper to attend it.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC), the grassroots organisation that organised the two massive demonstrations for Catalonia’s independence in 2012 and 2013, is working on another initiative to allow Catalan citizens to hold a self-determination vote. This past weekend it installed 700 stands throughout Catalonia with 3,000 attorneys-in-fact to collect signatures for an independence referendum and, if this is deemed impossible, the unilateral declaration of independence, in accordance with international law. The ‘Sign a Vote for Independence’ initiative started last June and will continue during the upcoming months, but on Saturday and Sunday, a special push was given to boost the process. The ANC said the massive signature collecting had been “a success”. Figures will be provided next week although the campaign is still ongoing.

Artur Mas, President of the Catalan Government, signed an article published in New Europe’s special edition ‘Our world in 2014’, explaining why Catalans want to hold a self-determination vote on the 9^th of November, 2014. The European section of the publication includes articles from the French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, the Italian PM Enrico Letta, the UK Finance Minister George Osborne and two EU Commissioners, Neelie Kroes and Androulla Vassilliou, among others. In his article, Mas asked the Spanish Government to “abide by its professed democratic principles and to allow the referendum”. The Catalan President explained why a majority of Catalans are supporting independence from Spain due to historical, political, economic, cultural and identity-related reasons. “In twenty-first century Europe, we solve these disputes peacefully and democratically, with ballot boxes and votes” he stated.