european commission

The future president of the European Commission said during a meeting with the EFA/Greens Group in the European Parliament that he does not want to interfere in the political process started in Scotland or Catalonia. “I greatly respect democratic expressions in European territories, but I do not have the arrogance nor the wish to try to get involved in a debate that affects the territorial and political organization of member states”, said Juncker. The PPC candidate to the top job of the EU added that the Catalan situation “should be solved in Spain” and not in Brussels.

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) stated it cancelled a debate on the EU Membership of an independent Catalonia because they could not find a speaker arguing that Catalonia would be excluded from the EU. However, the Catalan Government and the Catalan Public Diplomacy Council (Diplocat) suspect the Spanish Government pressured the CEPS to cancel the debate, as it already tried to do with previous events. The Spanish Executive denied the accusations, which are also rejected by the CEPS. The event was organised weeks ago and was supposed to take place on Tuesday at 9.30am at the CEPS facilities, which is the most prestigious think tank in EU Affairs. It was "postponed" on Monday evening, just a few hours before it was due to start. A prestigious Constitutional expert, who advises the Catalan Government, Carles Viver i Pi-Sunyer, was supposed to present a report arguing that Catalonia would remain within the EU.

The Spokesperson for the European Commission, Pia Ahrenkilde, was asked about Catalonia’s results from Sunday’s European Parliament elections. Ahrenkilde stated that “the EU is very much listening” to what is going on, but refused to make specific comments on “any individual national result”. She went on to say that, considering the results in the EU overall, “there is a lot of reflection to do by all European leaders and by all national leaders”. Turnout in Catalonia increased significantly, fuelled by the self-determination debate, going from 36.9% to 47.4%, whereas it dropped in most of Spain. Furthermore, self-determination parties won the elections in Catalonia, occupying 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th position and obtaining more than 60% of the vote. In addition, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) won an election in Catalonia for the first time, obtaining 23.7% of the vote.

Parties supporting self-determination have won the European Parliament elections in Catalonia by a clear margin; elections which have seen turnout increase from 36.9% in 2009 to 47.4% this time around, spurred by the independence debate. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) obtained 23.7% of the votes, whereas in 2009 it secured only 9.2%. The Centre-Right pro-Catalan State Coalition (CiU), which has been in government in Catalonia since 2010, has more or less kept the same percentage of the vote, going from 22.4% to 21.9%, despite austerity measures adopted in the past few years. Support for Spain's two main parties, the People's Party (PP) – currently in government – and the Socialists (PSOE), has plummeted in Catalonia.  The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), part of the PSOE, retained only a third of its 2009 share of the vote, going from 36% to 14.3%. The PP now becomes the 5^th most popular party, decreasing from 18% of the vote to 9.8%. Meanwhile, the Catalan Green Socialist and post-Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA), which also supports self-determination, increased its percentage of the vote from 6% to 10.3%. The anti-Catalan nationalism and populist party Ciutadans (C's) also polled well, increasing its share of the vote from 0.3% to 6.3%.

In Spain as a whole, turnout for the European parliamentary elections increased slightly, while it increased considerably in a Catalonia in the midst of the independence debate. In 2009 only 36.94% of those Catalans on the voting register voted in the European elections, the lowest turnout ever recorded in any election during the 37 years of democracy. Now, some 47.4% of Catalans have cast their vote, an increase of more than 10 percentage points. In the whole of Spain, turnout increased by only one percentage point when compared to the 44.5% turnout from 2009, reaching 45.6%, sustained by the high increase in Catalonia. In fact, in the rest of Spain, turnout decreased in almost all regions, with only a few exceptions. Turnout also stagnated at EU level, going from 43% in 2009 to 43.1% in the newest elections. Parties and civil society organisations supporting self-determination asked Catalan citizens to vote in these elections in order to send a message to the world: Catalans want to hold an independence vote and to remain within the EU.

The 2014 European parliamentary elections are likely to become a milestone for Catalan people for three main reasons, which taken together send a strong message to the international community, the EU institutions and Member State governments, including that of Spain. Firstly, political parties and civil society organisations supporting self-determination have called citizens to vote in these elections as a way to push for a referendum on independence to take place on the 9^th of November of this year. This may significantly increase turnout from the low 36.94% registered in 2009. Secondly, the two main self-determination parties are likely to be the most voted parties in Catalonia. In addition, the Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) may go from 4^th place in the 2009 poll to 1^st place this time around. Thirdly, support for the two main parties behind the EU austerity measures that turned into drastic budget cuts in southern Europe – the People’s Party and the Socialist Party – is likely to plummet in Catalonia.

In the first debate ever among the official candidates to chair the European Commission, Catalonia's self-determination process, the referendum and the EU membership of a hypothetical Catalan independent state was discussed. After a question from the debate's host, Italian journalist Monica Maggioni, about Scotland and Catalonia, each of the five candidates shared their views on the issue. Juncker (People's Party) and Schultz (Socialist) called for respect for constitutional frameworks and insisted that Scotland and Catalonia are internal matters for the UK and Spain. Verhofstadt (Liberals) emphasised that the EU has to listen to the citizens and that it cannot intervene in a negative way, as it has done so far in this issue. Keller (Greens) promised that if Scots and Catalans vote for independence, she will work for an automatic membership. Tsipras (Alternative Left) recognised the right to self-determination but suggested greater autonomy within their respective countries as the best solution for Catalonia and Scotland.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, compared the independence referendums in Donetsk and Lugansk with Catalonia’s self-determination process. The Spokesperson of the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, rejected the comparison and stated that García-Margallo “is making a mistake” since “he is putting Spain’s image in a place that should not interest him”. “In any case, Catalonia does not compare itself” with Eastern Ukraine, Homs added. On previous occasions he has drawn attention to the peaceful demands from Catalonia, which could fit into Spain’s constitutional framework if there was the political will. Besides, the Catalan Government issued a statement in which it did not recognize the legitimacy of Donetsk’s and Lugansk’s referendums but expressed its full support for the EU decisions.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has insisted that he will call for the consultation vote on Catalonia's independence, despite the Spanish Government's obstructive attitude. Mas was answering Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who asked him to give up on his referendum plans in order to start talking. For the Catalan President, this is not an offer to talk but "an imposition". Mas insists that the reason for not allowing Catalans to vote is not legal, since several legal ways have been identified to organise such a vote, but a lack of political will from the Spanish authorities. The Catalan President sent a clear message to the European Union: "the dynamics of states cannot drown the dynamics of peoples". He emphasised that the democratic will of the Catalan people has to be taken into account by the EU. Furthermore he praised Catalonia for being an example of "integrating people with very diverse origins […] without falling into populist and xenophobic movements", which "have been emerging in Europe lately".

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, has accused the Catalan Government of "not telling the whole truth" regarding the EU membership of an independent Catalonia. García-Margallo stated a month ago that an independent Catalonia would "roam across space" and would be "excluded from the European Union for centuries of centuries". On Wednesday he referred to an expert report issued this week by the Catalan Government's Advisory Council for the National Transition (CATN), formed of prestigious academics. The CATN stated that EU Treaties do not include provisions for automatic expulsion nor for automatic admission. Therefore, the final decision would be reached in a negotiation with political and economic interests at play. For them, the most likely scenario is one with transition measures to guarantee the continuity of EU Law, the Schengen Area and the Euro, while waiting for the official admission of Catalonia to be accepted.

A Spokesperson for the European Commission was asked on Tuesday about the report issued on Monday by the Catalan Government's Advisory Council for National Transition, which stated that EU Treaties did not include any provision regarding the secession of a Member State and therefore the final decision would be a political one, following economic interests. They stated that the most likely scenario would be setting up transition measures guaranteeing the continuity of EU Law, Schengen and the Euro, while Catalonia's definitive EU membership was being negotiated. The European Commission - which acknowledged it only knew the report from the press – repeated that it will only give an analysis "upon the request of a Member State" and "on the basis of a detailed scenario". However, it also stated that "if a part territory of a Member State secedes", "EU Treaties no longer apply from the day of its independence" as it becomes "a third country". The Commission did not state the procedure, nor whether transition measures could guarantee the continuity of EU agreements.

An independent Catalonia would benefit from transition measures that would guarantee the continuity of European Union agreements, thus staying within the Schengen Area and the Euro Zone. This is the most likely scenario in the event of independence, according to the Catalan Government's Advisory Council for the National Transition (CATN), which is a body formed of independent and prestigious academics. The CATN is issuing a series of reports on different aspects related to a hypothetical independent Catalan state. This expert group emphasises that there is "no legal basis" to conclude that Catalonia would be automatically expelled from the EU the moment it became independent, or to state that it would automatically join the Union as a new Member State. There is no provision in the Treaties and there are no precedents. The report concludes that Catalonia's EU membership will be decided in a negotiation process where political and economic interests will be at play.

According to a poll issued by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 59.7% of Catalans would agree with Catalonia becoming "a new European State". Specifically, 40.2% of the interviewees "totally agree" with the idea, 19.5% of the interviewees tend to agree, 10.8% tend to disagree and 18.9% are "totally against" it. Furthermore, 87.3% of the interviewees affirm they would accept the result of a self-determination referendum while 9.3% state they would not accept it. Furthermore, 74% of Catalans believe that the best way to decide on Catalonia's political future and its relationship with Spain is through a referendum, while 21.7% think the opposite.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry has drafted a new report on the consequences of an independent Catalonia, which predicts a 20% drop of the Catalan GDP. According to ‘El Periódico’ newspaper, the document - which will be sent to embassies throughout the world - foresees a fall in exports towards Europe and Spain, a decrease in foreign investments, a flight of talent, less tourism revenues because of the “lack of a common currency”, and a soar in Catalan debt which would reach 78.4% of the Catalan GDP since it would have to assume 18.9% of the Spanish Government's debt. The Catalan Minister for the Presidency and Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, said the report was merely “speculative”, adding that the Spanish Ministry was actually “campaigning” against self-determination. The Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs has asked Catalan authorities to back such claims with “empirical evidence”.

In its editorial on Wednesday, the prestigious ‘The New York Times’ has dissociated the current situation in Crimea and its secession from Ukraine from the independence processes in Catalonia, Scotland and Quebec. The editorial article, which demands European Union countries to impose economic sanctions on Vladimir Putin's Russia, states that the Catalans, Scots and Quebecers “have shown there are legitimate ways to raise” the secession issue. The American newspaper criticized Crimea for its “phony referendum” with a “foreordained” outcome, organised in an express way just as Russian soldiers were being deployed in the peninsula. The newspaper admits secession is a “difficult” matter but recalled that the invasion of Crimea is “illegal”, calling on the international community to react to Putin’s actions.