economy

Prices in Catalonia dropped by 1.4% in January compared to the figures for December, which represents the biggest monthly decrease ever registered on the records of the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) (since 2002, when comparable data started to be compiled). Furthermore, the annual inflation rate posted at the end of February reached -0.9%, which is the lowest figure since July 2009, in the middle of the first economic recession. The sustained decrease of oil prices is the main reason for such results and Catalonia has now accumulated 3 consecutive months with negative rates within the Consumption Price Index (IPC) in annual terms. In Spain as a whole, prices dropped by 1.6% in monthly terms at the end of January, which is also the biggest decrease within the series of comparable records. Furthermore, Spain’s annual inflation reached -1.3%, the lowest since July 2007. 

In 2014 in Catalonia, not only has there been a rise in the number of overnight hotel stays but also a substantial growth in the number of visitors. Hotel figures show 50,018,636 overnight stays last year, a 1.5% increase over 2013. Catalan hotels received a total of 16,754,342 visitors, an increase of 3.4% over last year. The Catalan tourism infrastructure played host to 62% foreign residents (10.3 million) and 38% (6.3 million) of residents from Spain. December is increasingly becoming an important month as the number of overnight stays climbed to around 2 million (1,983,259), which represents 6.1% more than the same month in 2013 and the highest rate ever recorded for this period of the year. Catalonia remains above the average rate for Spain, as its occupation rate is 56.2%, whereas that of Spain overall is 54.8%.

Another positive figure has emerged to confirm the economic recovery after years of crisis. Catalonia’s GDP grew by 1.2% over the course of 2014, which are the best figures since 2007, before the financial crisis, according to early data released on Thursday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The figure is higher than the 0.9% economic growth foreseen in the Catalan Government’s budget for 2014 (approved in late 2013) but is lower than an early forecast made in March, when a 1.5% growth was predicted. Besides this growth in the Catalan economy, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.4%, according to early data released by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Furthermore, the Catalan economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to September figures and by 1.5% in annual terms. In the first, second, and third quarters it grew by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively (in quarterly terms).

Registered unemployment in Catalonia grew by 6,821 people by the end of January, compared to figures from December. However, it is the lowest increase since 2007 for a month in which many seasonal contracts related to Christmas sales end. Furthermore, more good news comes in the form of the 8.06% drop in annual terms posted in January and the fact that registered unemployment has been decreasing for the last 19 consecutive months in annual terms. However, registered unemployment has also been increasing in monthly terms for the last 3 consecutive months (November, December and January). In the whole of Spain, registered unemployment increased by 77,980 people compared to a month ago, also the lowest increase for this time of year since 2007.

The Catalan Government’s Deputy Minister for External Affairs, Roger Albinyana, announced the Executive’s aim to have a network of “about 50 delegations” throughout the world, representing Catalonia’s political, business and cultural interests abroad. The Catalan Government currently has 7 delegations abroad, after the new representations in Rome and Vienna start to work on Monday, when the representatives were appointed. The 5 others are located in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. In the coming “months and years”, the Catalan Government will continue to open new delegations. Regardless of the hypothetical independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive already has the powers to have its own External Action policy, recognised by the Catalan Statute of Autonomy from 2006, although with many limitations.

For the first time in 7 years, in 2014 Catalan shops increased their overall sales figures compared to the previous year, growing by 1.4%. Furthermore, the figures are even more positive looking at the sales in December, which grew by 7.4% compared to the same month in 2013, according to data released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The Catalan figures are better than the Spanish average, both for 2014’s overall figures and for those from December. In Spain as a whole, retail increased by 0.9% last year and by 5.4% in December. The worst year for Catalonia’s retail sector was 2011, when sales dropped by 6.2% in annual terms. Other years, they stagnated, such as in 2010. 

According to a study by the Professional Association of Economists of Catalonia (Col·legi d’Economistes), an independent Catalonia would obtain a much better grade from rating agencies than it currently gets, taking into account its diversified economy and higher GDP per capita than the European average. Specifically, it would obtain an A+ rating, 7 levels higher than the current BB ‘junk bond’, using Standard&Poor’s classification. The study highlights that without the current fiscal deficit with the rest of Spain, the rating would be “at least” that of the Basque Country and would enable the Catalan Government to access the international financial markets. Catalan taxpayers pay much more to the Spanish Government than the amount they get back in terms of services and infrastructure; a fiscal deficit equivalent to between €13bn and €17.5bn per year.

The low-cost airline Norwegian Air Shuttle announced it may connect Barcelona to 5 United States cities by 2016: San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Miami and Orlando. The cheapest roundtrip tickets would be less than $300, stated the Scandinavian company’s Founder and CEO, Bjorn Kjos. The announcement was made on the day Norwegian unveiled its headquarters for Southern Europe, based at Barcelona El Prat Airport. The low-cost airline has transformed the Catalan capital’s main airport into one of its main operational bases worldwide. In 2014 alone, Norwegian increased by 36% the number of passengers it transported through the airport. Last year, Barcelona El Prat broke its passenger record with 37.5 million people. The Catalan Minister for Transport, Santi Vila, stressed that Norwegian’s plans contribute to transforming Barcelona El Prat into an intercontinental hub.

Adam Price, the former Member of Westminster Parliament and Harvard University expert, believes it “would be very difficult” to argue that an independent Catalan state would not be prosperous. In fact, he thinks Catalonia “would have done better” without being part of Spain. Price is an acclaimed economist and political expert and the author of a report written for Harvard University on the economic potential of smaller countries. In the report Price examines how smaller European economies have a higher chance of gaining economic success than larger ones. Studying small European nations, Price believes, without a doubt, that an independent Catalonia would have huge potential in the long run. However, he also stresses that “transition cost” are another debate.

Catalonia posted a 19.88% unemployment rate at the end of 2014, almost 4 percentage points lower than the rate for the whole of Spain, which was 23.70%. On 31 December 2014, there were 756,500 unemployed people in Catalonia, which represents 83,000 less jobseekers than a year ago, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Despite the positive annual results, unemployment increased by 30,500 people in quarterly terms, compared to figures from the end of September 2014. Back then, Catalonia's unemployment rate was 19.10%. In terms of jobs, the Catalan economy ended 2014 with 49,300 more people in employment than at the end of 2013, reaching 3,048,100 workers. The Catalan Government is said to be "moderately optimistic" with the figures and highlighted that both 2014 and 2013 ended with less unemployed in annual terms, accumulating two consecutive years of decreased numbers.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is also leader of the conservative and Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP), strongly criticised the announcement of early elections made by the Catalan President, Artur Mas, the evening before. Mas announced elections in Catalonia for 27 September this year, transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. These elections are the only way Catalans can vote on this issue, taking into account the Spanish Government’s total opposition to even talking about self-determination demands, which were backed by an absolute majority of citizens in the last Catalan elections (held in November 2012) which themselves were already a plebiscite on having a legal vote on independence. However, as opposed to the British Government, Rajoy refused to even discuss these demands, has not made any concessions, and has showed total opposition, which has even involved the criminal prosecution of the Catalan President.

Catalonia ended 2014 with an annual inflation rate of -0.7%, the lowest rate since 1978, when records for the Spain’s Autonomous Communities began, according to data published on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The previous month, at the end of November, the annual consumer price index registered a rate of -0.3% in Catalonia. In the whole of Spain, the annual inflation rate at the end of December 2014 was -1%. This is the lowest rate registered since December 1961, when comparable data started to be collected. At the end of November, prices were decreasing by -0.4% in annual terms in Spain as a whole. Therefore, both in Catalonia and in Spain overall, last year ended with a significant price drop, mostly due to falling fuel prices.

Despite a decrease in Russian visitors, Catalonia increased the number of international tourists it hosted during 2014. Some 16.7 million foreigners travelled to Catalonia last year, which sets a new historic record. In addition, it represents a 7.2% increase on 2013 figures. International visitors spent more than €15 billion during their stay, 6.1% more than in 2013. Therefore, foreign tourism accounted for some 7.5% of Catalonia’s entire GDP during 2014. Each tourist spent an average of €900 during their stay. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, presented the figures on Wednesday and emphasised that the objective for future years is not so much to increase the number of tourists but rather to increase the revenue which they bring in. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, assessed on Tuesday the Executive’s work during 2014, which he found to be “positive” overall, although he admitted there are still many people in great need and many social and economic challenges ahead. Referring to the current debate on whether to call early elections transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain, Mas promised immediate decisions to be announced on Thursday. Before taking the definitive decision and after weeks of admitted “confusion”, the Catalan President wants to hold a last round of talks with the main civil society organisations supporting independence and the left-wing pro-independence party ERC – with whom the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU has shared a parliamentary stability agreement for the last 2 years. “I will not slack” in the self-determination process, Mas stated.

At the end of 2014, there were 575,948 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released this week by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 48,924 fewer jobseekers than were on the register at the end of 2013; a 7.83% drop achieved during the last 12 months. During 2014, registered unemployment dropped by 5.39% in the whole of Spain. There were 4,447,711 people registered as unemployed throughout the country, which represents 253,627 fewer jobseekers than a year ago, the largest reduction in unemployment since 1998.