economy

Catalonia’s annual inflation rate increased from a rate of 0.3% in June to 0.4% in July, according to information released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). This is the highest yearly rate since June 2014, when prices also increased 0.4% compared to the previous year. In Spain as a whole, annual inflation continued at the 0.1% rate registered in June. Therefore, deflation is gradually being left behind, although price increases are still at a low level, mostly due to the continuing low price of fuel on the global market. However, in monthly terms, prices declined by 0.8% in Catalonia, mainly owing to a 13.3% drop in the price of retail goods due to seasonal sales, but also because of a 0.5% drop in the price of fruits and vegetables. The increase in housing rentals, communications and entertainment, mostly travel industry, have not been able to compensate for the aforementioned declining prices in monthly terms.

The Catalan GDP increased by 0.9% between April and June this year, which is a positive figure but slightly lower than the 1.1% rate registered during the first quarter. However, in annual terms, the Catalan economy grew by 3% in the year to June, which is more than the 2.6% annual growth registered in March. Such a high level of annual growth had not been registered since September 2007, before the financial crisis started. According to the Catalan Finance Ministry, the minor fall off in growth registered between April and June compared to the growth rate from January to March is due to the "extraordinary" 1.1% growth rate of the first quarter. The Ministry stressed that 0.9% growth is still a very positive rate and does not break the trend of the economic recovery, on the contrary proving its strength.

Real estate continues its positive trend and is gradually leaving behind the crisis the sector went through between 2008 and 2014. Housing sales have grown in Catalonia for the 9^th consecutive month in annual terms. This week, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) released the sales figures for the month of June 2015 and they show an 8.15% growth in Catalonia compared to June last year. It is the best figure for the month of June since 2010. Previously-owned properties are leading the market by a clear margin, with only 15% of sales being new builds. In Spain as a whole, housing sales have already seen 10 consecutive months of growth. In June, they increased by 17% on last year’s figures, with 78.3% of the properties sold having been previously owned.

Registered unemployment decreased in Catalonia by 9,162 people in July compared to the previous month, the third-biggest drop for the month of July since 1996. The total number of people registered as unemployed with Catalonia’s Public Employment Service (SOC) at the end of the month was 501,785 individuals, which represents an 11.69% drop in annual terms, the highest percentage decrease since April 2000 (when registered unemployment dropped 11.94% compared to 1999 figures). In addition, the figures from July mean that there have now been 25 consecutive months of annual drops in the number of unemployed in Catalonia. As well as this, the total number of Catalans without a job and looking for one at the end of last month was the lowest  since July 2009 (when there were 495,911 jobless people). In Spain as a whole, registered unemployment decreased by 74,028 people from June to July, which represents an 8.45% annual drop and is Spain’s most significant decrease for the month of July since 1998.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has stated that Catalonia's upcoming elections are Spain's "main risk" to the State itself and to the country’s economic recovery. Rajoy read a speech before the press before departing for his summer break, and Catalonia's independence was one of the main issues he talked about. The Spanish PM stressed that the government he heads "will never allow secession to happen"; "by no means will there be independence", he emphasised. He also stressed that the Spanish Government is ready "to fight the battle of defending the many millions of citizens who feel Catalan, Spanish and European". Rajoy said he is satisfied with the strategy he has been employing during the last few years, based on a total rejection of even talking about the organisation of a mutually-agreed vote like the one that took place in Scotland. According to him, his approach was "cautious and proportional". "We have not made any concession", he added, "nothing". According to him, any Spanish PM would have acted in the same way, as "it is not easy to hold a dialogue with somebody who wants to organise a referendum".

Catalonia's GDP increased by 3.5% between June 2014 and June 2015 and was the Autonomous Community with the third-highest level of economic growth, leading Spain's economic recovery.  Spain as a whole grew at a 3.1% annual rate in the same period, according to figures released on Thursday by the Spanish Independent Fiscal Authority (Airef). Ahead of Catalonia in terms of GDP growth are the Balearic Islands – with 4% growth – and the Valencian Country (also called Valencian Community) – with growth of 3.9%. They are followed by Catalonia (3.5%), the Canary Islands (3.4%) and the Madrid region (3.2%). According to these figures, the eastern part of Spain has been the most dynamic during the last few months, and Catalonia, which is the wealthiest Autonomous Community and has one of the highest growth rates, is the region contributing the most in absolute terms.

Despite the fact that all the Autonomous Community governments that are not run by the People's Party (PP) requested the Spanish Executive  – run by the PP – to allow them a greater deficit in 2016 and that Spain's independent fiscal authority Airef also recommended granting regional governments greater deficit targets for next year, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, has rejected doing so. In 2016, the Autonomous Communities will have to close their budgets with less than a 0.3% deficit, "an absurd" and "unrealistic" figure according to the Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, who was recently awarded an honorary PhD in Economics by the University of Chicago. The Catalan Government asked for a 0.88% deficit target for 2016. Besides this, next year the Catalan Executive will receive €1.2 billion that should have already been transferred by the Spanish Executive but was not, due to Montoro's tax revenue miscalculations. In addition to this, since economic activity is growing, the Spanish Government will increase the Catalan Executive's funds by €700 million each year from 2016 onwards.

The President of Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce Miquel Valls has recognised that there is "an important concern" among many business owners about Catalonia's self-determination process and the economic consequences resulting from the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September and which will be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence. A few months ago, Valls presented a report from the Chamber of Commerce stating that the self-determination process of the last few years had not affected the economy, as exports, tourism and direct foreign investment were growing at a higher rate in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain. However, as the 'de facto' plebiscite approaches and the political landscape becomes more uncertain due to the independence road map and threats from Spanish institutions, business owners are increasingly worried. In this vein, Valls urged the political parties to detail their economic proposals for after the September elections.

At the end of June there were 31,900 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia than in March and 44,200 less than a year ago, according to the Active Population Survey for the second quarter of the year released on Thursday. These figures mean Catalonia's total number of unemployed was 726,200 individuals and that the unemployment rate was 19.1% at the end of the second quarter. In March, the unemployment rate was 20.05%; in December, 19.88%; and in September, 19.1% as well, the same as for June of this year. In addition, the number of people with a job increased by 51,800 individuals between March and June, a 1.71% increase in quarterly terms. Compared to a year ago, in June there were 35,000 more people with a job than in June 2014. At Spanish level, unemployment also decreased during the second quarter of the year, with 295,600 fewer jobseekers registered, a 5.43% reduction on figures from March. In the whole of Spain, there were 5,149,000 people without a job and a 22.37% unemployment rate overall.

The number of foreign tourists visiting Catalonia continues to increase year after year. On Wednesday, the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism released the figures for foreigners visiting Spain between January and June 2015. 7,439,211 international visitors came to Catalonia in that period, the highest number ever and a 4.4% increase on the figures from the previous year (when 7.1 million foreigners came). In addition, Catalonia also led the destination ranking within Spain, attracting 25.5% of all 29.2 million international tourists visiting the country during the first six months of the year (a 4.2% increase on 2014 figures). In the month of June, 1.71 million foreign visitors came to Catalonia, a 1.8% increase compared to last year and representing 25.6% of all international tourists travelling to Spain in that month.

This May, Catalan exports increased by 4.5% on the same period in 2014, reaching €5,301.7 million and setting a new record as the best May since 2000 (when comparable data started to be collected), according to figures published on Thursday by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness. Imports also rose, by 2.7% to €6,331.2 million. The chemical industry accounted for €1,433.9 million, increasing by 7.1%, followed by the car industry, represented €882.5 million and a 6% growth. In contrast, exports in capital goods fell by 7.1% (€892.8 million). In the whole of Spain, exports increased by 1.9%, totalling €21,025 million and breaking a new record for a month of May since the beginning of the historical series in 1971.

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and Barcelona-based Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) think tanks, together with an Italian and a Greek research centre, have presented a report stating that the economy of an independent Catalonia would grow more in the next 15 years than if the current 'status quo' was kept. The study analyses 3 different scenarios: the current model, an agreed independence process and a unilateral declaration of independence. In either case of independence, the Catalan economy would be in better shape in the long-run than if the current framework was kept, the researchers conclude. However, in the event of a unilateral process, there may be negative economic effects in the short-term, mostly due to uncertainties related to EU Membership. Nonetheless, they consider the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme – imposed by the Spanish Government – "unsustainable at macroeconomic level" for Catalonia.

Prices increased by three-tenths during June and left an annual inflation of 0.3%, the highest in Catalonia in the last year, particularly since June 2014, according to data published Tuesday by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). This data marks the second consecutive month with positive inflation in Catalonia after six consecutive months of recording negative rates. Spain as a whole also entered this June with positive inflation (+0.1%) after 11 months straight of deflation. June 2015 is the first month since June 2014 with positive annual inflation in both Catalonia and Spain as a whole, signifying economic recovery. Prices for electricity – which increased this June after falling last year – and the upward trend in prices of fresh fruit have decisively solidified recent inflation.

Barcelona will continue to host each year the world's main event of the mobile phone-related industries until at least 2023, it has been confirmed by the company organising the Mobile World Congress, GSMA, on Tuesday through a press release. “We are very pleased to confirm that Barcelona will continue to serve as the Mobile World Capital and home of the Mobile World Congress for the next eight years”, stated the CEO of GSMA, John Hoffman. The Catalan capital has been uninterruptedly hosting this annual event since 2006 and has been declared the Mobile World Capital, as the project goes beyond the congress and involves the development of a business environment focused on this type of industry at international level. The current contract was due to end in 2018 and a few months ago Barcelona officially told GSMA it was willing to continue hosting the event until 2023.

According to 'Memòria Econòmica 2014' (an annual analysis promoted by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce), last year the Catalan economy registered its best performance since the start of the economic crisis. In particular, for the first time since 2007, positive net results in terms of employment were recorded. However, current GDP is still 6% below 2007 levels and will remain so until 2016. In addition, if growth continues at the current rate, employment will only reach 2007 levels in seven years, which means in 2021. According to the report's estimates, at the end of 2015, Catalonia will record a 3% GDP growth.