ceo

According to an opinion poll from the Catalan Polling Centre (CEO), the Catalan political landscape would change, since the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would would become the largest force in the Catalan Parliament after doubling the number of its MPs compared to the electoral results from last November. Meanwhile, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which has been running the Catalan Government since 2010, would continue to lose support. However, parties supporting Catalonia’s independence increase their total support while the number of those defending Spain’s unity drops. The CEO thinks the data show that over the last 9 months, the support for independence remains “stable” in a hypothetical referendum, ranging between 54% and 57%. However, those opposing independence grew from 20.7% to 23.4%, while the number of undecided citizens decreased to 15%.

The latest political poll issued by the Catalan Survey Centre (CEO), published every three months, shows that 54.7% of those interviewed would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, while 20.7% would vote “no” and 17.0% would abstain. Three months ago, the “yes” option was backed by 57% of the interviewees while in February 2012 it was only backed by 44%. Besides, 46.4% of citizens would support an independent Catalan state as their first choice, which represents an increase of 2.1 percentage points in three months and a 17.4 point increase in one year. 22.4% would prefer a federal Spain, 20.7% the current situation and 4.4% Catalonia being a region within a more centralised Spain.

Just before the Catalan election campaign kicks off, the survey centres run by the Spanish and the Catalan governments have both issued their own polls. 57% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum, according to the Catalan survey. In June the percentage was 51%. The Spanish survey did not include the question. Both polls agree that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – currently running the Catalan Government – would gain more votes, close to obtaining an absolute majority. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is against independence and already obtained its worst results ever in 2010, would lose between 30% and 45% of MPs. The People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, but might become the party in second place. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) would increase its representation by 40% to 70% and might become the third party.