55.6% of Catalans would support independence from Spain in a referendum while 23.4% would oppose it

Barcelona (ACN).- According to an opinion poll from the Catalan Polling Centre (CEO), which is managed by the Catalan Government, support for independence in Catalonia grew from 54.7% to 55.6% compared to the last report issued four months ago. The CEO thinks the data show that, over the last 9 months, the support for independence remained “stable”, ranging between 54% and 57%. However, those opposing independence grew from 20.7% to 23.4%, while the number of undecided citizens decreased to 15%. In addition, the Catalan political landscape would change, since the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would become the largest force in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament after almost doubling the number of its MPs compared to the electoral results from last November. The ERC would increase support from 21 to 38 or 39 MPs. Meanwhile, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which has been running the Catalan Government since December 2010, would continue to lose support. The CiU would drop from 50 to 35 or 37 MPs according to the CEO poll. However, this cannot be interpreted in the sense that support for self-determination or independence is decreasing, quite the contrary. In total, the parties defending Catalonia’s independence would gain between 5 and 8 MPs, passing from 74 to 79 or 82 MPs (58.5% or 60.74% of the total parliamentary seats). In addition, the parties defending Catalonia’s self-determination right – but not necessarily supporting the independence option – are likely to increase their support, since they would keep their current 107 seats or could even win 4 more seats, reaching 82.2% of the Catalan Parliament. At the same time, parties openly opposing independence would lose between 6 and 7 MPs, dropping from 48 MPs to 42 or 41 (between 31.1% and 30.4% of the total parliamentary seats). Furthermore, parties totally opposing Catalonia’s right to self-determination would lose between 2 and 3 MPs compared to November’s electoral results. The CEO poll was published on Thursday the 20^th of June, with data gathered between the 31^st of May and the 13^th of June. 2,000 Spanish citizens resident in Catalonia and over 18 years old were interviewed on the phone, which leads to a margin of error of 2.69%. The sample took into account age and geographical dimensions.

The number of undecided citizens is falling

According to the CEO poll, 55.6% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum if it was held tomorrow, while 23.4% would vote “no”. 15.3% of the citizens would abstain and 5.7% did not know, did not answer or provided other answers. In an opinion poll issued in February, those supporting independence represented 54.7% and those opposing it were 20.7%. According to the CEO Director, Jordi Argelaguet, the data shows that “stances are being defined” over the independence issue. “There is a majority that would vote for it and stances are becoming more marked. The ‘no’ grows and the abstention is reduced in relation to previous polls”, he said.

Support for a federal Spain drops within the last year and a half

If the question is not directly about whether they would support independence in a referendum but about the political organisation they would prefer, 47% of the citizens would prefer Catalonia to be an independent state. In February they numbered 46.3%, which consolidates independence as the Catalans’ preferred option. 22.8% would prefer Catalonia continuing to be an Autonomous Community within Spain, as it is right now. This represents an increase, since in February they numbered only 20.7%. Only 4.6% of the interviewees think that Catalonia should be a mere region within Spain (in a more centralised state). In the last poll this option had 4.4% of support. However, the greatest change is the support for a federal Spain, in which Catalonia would have greater power than in the current model but would not be independent. A year and a half ago, this option was the most preferred by Catalans, but in the poll released on Thursday, only 21.2% of Catalans would back a federal Spain.

The Left-Wing Independence Party would win the next Catalan elections, almost doubling its results

The poll also shows voting trends and in this section there is a major surprise, since the parties that are traditionally Catalonia’s largest parties continue to lose support and the governing Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) is overtaken by the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC). The ERC would win the next elections, obtaining 22% of the votes and increasing from 21 to 38 or 39 MPs. At the same time, CiU would plummet from 50 MPs to 35 or 37, obtaining just 18% of the votes. The CEO noted that many CiU voters would give their support to the ERC instead, although this last party would obtain support from other parties and would keep most of its past voters. The CiU would lose support due to the erosion effect that running the Catalan Government and implementing unpopular budget cuts, the alleged corruption cases affecting the party and some internal disputes regarding the self-determination process have had.

Looking at the rest of the parties, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which has traditionally been Catalonia’s second largest party, would continue to plummet and would drop from 20 to 16 MPs. The People’s Party – which runs the Spanish Government and has been a minor party in Catalonia – would fall from 19 MPs (its best result ever) to 13 or 14 seats. In addition, the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) would keep its 13 MPs or even win an additional one.

Those were the five parties that have traditionally run Catalan politics over the last three decades. However, since 2006, the populist anti-Catalan nationalism party Ciutadans (C’s) ran in the Catalan elections for the first time and obtained 3 seats. It repeated the same results in 2010 but in the last November elections, it increased to 9 MPs. According to the CEO, C’s would continue growing and would reach 12 MPs, obtaining votes mostly from the PSC but also from the PP. In addition, in the last November elections, a radical left-wing and independence party CUP entered the Catalan Parliament for the first time with 3 MPs. Now, according to the CEO poll, they would double their seats and obtain 6 MPs.

The ERC would obtain more seats in the Spanish Parliament from Catalonia than the Socialist Party

Looking now at the hypothetical results in Catalonia of a Spanish parliamentary election, the CEO poll shows that the Socialists continue plummeting, which would have terrible consequences for them since Catalonia is one of their main sources of votes at Spanish level. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and they run as the same party in Catalonia, would obtain between 9 and 10 seats and would become the third most voted force. The PSC had traditionally won this type of election, except in 2011. In 2008 the PSC obtained 25 seats and in 2011, 14. Meanwhile, the CiU would win again the Spanish elections in Catalonia with 13 or 14 seats, although they would lose support from their current 16 MPs. Furthermore, for the first time, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party would become the second most voted for party in Catalonia in the Spanish parliamentary elections. The ERC would increase from their current 3 MPs to 10 or 11 seats (while their record in such an election was 8 seats). The PP would significantly lose support, falling from 11 to 6 or 7 MPs. The ICV-EUiA would grow from their current 3 seats to 4 MPs. In these elections, C’s and the CUP would also provide headlines, since they would both sit in the Spanish Parliament for the first time. C’s would obtain 2 MPs and the CUP, 1.