Politics

Just before the Catalan election campaign kicks off, the survey centres run by the Spanish and the Catalan governments have both issued their own polls. 57% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum, according to the Catalan survey. In June the percentage was 51%. The Spanish survey did not include the question. Both polls agree that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – currently running the Catalan Government – would gain more votes, close to obtaining an absolute majority. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is against independence and already obtained its worst results ever in 2010, would lose between 30% and 45% of MPs. The People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, but might become the party in second place. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) would increase its representation by 40% to 70% and might become the third party.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, held a debate in Brussels, at an event organised by the think tank Friends of Europe. Mas praised Catalonia’s European and democratic traditions. He talked about the self-determination process he is leading, which will be “scrupulously democratic”, “absolutely peaceful”, “demonstrably transparent”, “with an ample majority” and “within the framework of the European Union”. “What I want for Catalonia is for it to be its own State that must, necessarily, share interdependencies within a more united and stronger Europe”, he stated. If Catalonia could not remain in the EU, he would still ask the Catalan people about their future, “as it is the most important thing”. The opposition parties criticised Mas’ trip before the start of the electoral campaign.

The Catalan Government awarded Acciona’s joint venture the contract to manage Aigües Ter Llobregat (ATLL), the public company supplying drinkable water to an area of 5 million people. Acciona, a Brazilian investment bank, and other companies will pay €300 million in 2012 and €700 million within the next 50 years to run the concession. Privatising ATLL was a measure announced months ago, as part of the Catalan Government’s austerity plan to reduce its deficit in order to meet the imposed deficit targets. According to the press release, Acciona’s joint venture has been awarded the 50 year contract because “it offers a better price for the water” than the rival group of companies lead by the Catalan Agbar.

646,306 people were unemployed in Catalonia at the end of October. This is the highest figure since the start of this data series in the year 2000. Over the last month, unemployment in Catalonia grew by 2.19%, while a year ago, in October 2011, it grew by 2.43%. However, October 2012 was the third consecutive month with an increase in the number of people registered on the SOC lists. For the whole of Spain, unemployment increased by 128,242 people in October and reached 4,833,521 individuals without a job who were searching for a new one. Regarding geographical distribution, unemployment increased in all of the four Catalan provinces.

The report, published by the British Parliament, has been drafted by a senior expert on the enlargement of the European Union, Honorary Director-General of the European Commission and Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre. The arguments in the document also apply to the Catalan case. The text states that “for practical and political reasons [Scottish people] could not be asked to leave the EU and apply for readmission” since “having been members of the EU for 40 years, [they] have acquired rights as European citizens”. The analysis concludes that “negotiations on the terms of membership would take place in the period between the referendum and the planned date of independence” and that “the EU would adopt a simplified procedure for the negotiations”.

Commissioners Reding and Almunia have publicly said that, if there were a unilateral declaration of independence, Catalonia would not be automatically expelled from the EU. However, after being put under pressure by the Spanish Government, Reding sent a private letter stating she shared Madrid’s analysis that a unilateral independence would lead to exclusion from the EU and having to re-apply for accession, which would require a unanimous vote among the 27 Member States. After Madrid’s complaints about previous statements, the EC stated that it would not give its opinion on the issue if the Spanish Government does not explicitly ask for it “on the basis of a precise scenario”. The Catalan Government has noted that there is not a precise scenario as yet. None of the main parties propose a unilateral declaration of independence.

The PSC approved its electoral programme last weekend with the aim of becoming a third option “between the recentralisation of the People’s Party (PP) and the independence of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU)”. They propose the reformation of the Constitution to build a federal Spain and the organisation of a self-determination referendum in Catalonia, in which they would defend Spain’s unity. However, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – to which the Catalan Socialists (PSC) are federated – is against the possibility of organising a self-determination referendum in Catalonia. A few weeks ago, the PSC was still against organising such a referendum, although now they have embraced the idea shared by almost 80% of Catalans, according to the polls.

The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) presented its electoral programme for the next Catalan elections, to be held on the 25th of November. CiU’s leader and incumbent President of the Catalan Government – who is running for re-election, Artur Mas, stated that “if we want a leading Catalonia in Europe, we need a state structure, which we do not have”. CiU’s electoral programme talks about creating “state structures” but it does not openly mention the word “independence”; however, it is the closest a CiU electoral programme has ever been to supporting an independent Catalonia. The document points towards Europe and is called ‘Catalonia 2020’. “We want to be stuck with Europe. If we were to choose a partner, Europe would be our current marriage choice”, stated Mas.

Pimec, the main SME association in Catalonia, issued a survey taken of its members. Two thirds of the interviewees would support Catalonia’s independence from Spain while remaining in the European Union. 21.1% would prefer a more federal Spain and only 12.1% would back the current situation. In addition, 97.5% of the interviewees support improving Catalonia’s fiscal scheme. Furthermore, 61.2% think a hypothetical boycott of Catalan products by Spain would not or would hardly affect them.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, had previously accused the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, of having blackmailed him by trying to “impose the fiscal agreement or accept the consequences” in last September’s meeting, when Mas proposed a specific fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain. The Catalan President denied having blackmailed the Spanish PM. According to Mas, Rajoy “did not want to negotiate a fiscal agreement” as he considered that “Catalonia is not as badly treated” as Catalans say. The Catalan President said he explained to Rajoy what would happen “if the answer to all Catalan claims is always ‘no’”. “It is not a threat, it is describing the reality. The President of the Catalan Government’s duty is to inform [the Spanish PM] about Catalonia’s situation” Mas added.

The Spokesperson for the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, presented a report that analyses the normative and organisation duplicities at Spanish and Catalan level. The study, compiled by a Catalan Government's institute, concludes that the Spanish Government permanently invades Catalonia’s exclusive competences, both at normative and organisational levels. According to Homs, the Spanish Government’s attitude creates “contradictions” and “legal uncertainty”, which harms investments and the economy. Homs accused the Spanish Government of “keeping important administrative structures” despite having decentralised the competence, as is the case with tourism.

They say that European legislation foresees the cancellation of the voting rights of an EU Member State if there is “a clear risk of serious […] and persistent breach” of the common values. The four MEPs denounce “the military threats” and “the tone used by the People’s Party and the Spanish Government”. They have sent a formal letter to the European Commissioner for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, Viviane Reding. They ask the EU to be vigilant and “to evaluate the real risks of a potential military intervention” by Spanish forces against Catalonia. If such a risk existed, the EU should suspend Spain’s voting rights in the European Council.

Spain’s Constitutional Court has responded to an appeal from the Catalan Parliament dating from 2004. The appeal was against the Judicial Power’s last reform, approved by the Spanish Parliament, in the time of José María Aznar. Now, the Constitutional Court states that the Catalan Government only has competence over the non-judicial staff working in the justice administration, but not over the judges and other judicial staff. This means that the knowledge of Catalan language will not be a condition to work as a judge in Catalonia. Therefore Catalan citizens may not be able to use their mother tongue in their justice procedures or they will have to use interpretation services.

The day the United Kingdom and Scotland signed the agreement to organise the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the Spanish Justice Minister, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, states that the Spanish Government will not agree to organise or even negotiate on a referendum on Catalonia’s independence. Furthermore, the same day, Jaime Mayor Oreja, the leader of the Spanish Euro MPs from the People’s Party (PP), proposed “facing” the Catalan independence movement as was done earlier with ETA’s terrorism. Two weeks ago, Mayor Oreja had already linked the Catalan independence movement with the Basque terrorist group ETA. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, said that if Madrid does not authorise the referendum, Catalonia will appeal to European and international institutions.

The Catalan Government increased the amount initially requested from the Spanish Government Liquidity Fund for the Autonomous Communities (FLA) adding €410 more million in order to include payments to service providers and local councils. The Spanish Government and the Catalan Executive have included more types of payments eligible for receiving funds from the FLA. At the end of August the Catalan Government requested €5.02 billion to pay for debt maturities and some ordinary payments. At the same time, the Spanish Government does not respect investment agreements in Catalonia and ensures that Catalan citizens suffer from a permanent fiscal deficit calculated to be some 8.5% of the GDP (around €17 billion).