52% of Catalans support independence from Spain, according to a Madrid-based media

Barcelona (ACN).- Cadena Ser, Spain’s main radio station, has published an opinion poll on Catalonia’s National Day indicating that 52.3% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, while 24.1% would vote against it. It also reveals that 80.5% of Catalans want to hold a self-determination referendum, something the Spanish Government completely opposes. Furthermore, 59.7% of Catalans would still cast their vote even if the referendum was declared illegal. The opinion poll also indicates that 46.8% of Catalans would continue to support independence even if the Spanish Government agreed to grant Catalonia a fiscal scheme similar to that of the Basque Country, which would guarantee more financial resources than the current one. In this hypothesis, 27% would be against independence.

On 11^th September, Catalonia’s National Day, Madrid-based Cadena Ser – which is part of El País newspaper communication group – stated that 52.3% of Catalans would support independence from Spain in an independence referendum. Previous polls indicated that more than half of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, but it is the first time that a Madrid-based poll shows an independence support beyond 50%. According to Cadena Ser’s poll, 52.3% would vote “yes”, 24.1% would vote “no”, 13% are undecided, 2.9% prefer not to say, and 7.7% would abstain.

In November 2012, a similar poll from the Cadena Ser indicated that 49.6% of Catalans would have voted “yes” if an independence referendum was to be held the day after. 26.6% would have voted “no”, 13.6% were undecided, 4.3% preferred not to say, and 5.9% would have abstained.

80.5% of Catalans want to hold a self-determination vote

The poll also indicates that 80.5% of Catalans want to hold a self-determination referendum in Catalonia. In November 2012, Cadena Ser’s poll showed 75.3% support. In September 2013, 14.6% would oppose such a referendum, while this figure was 16% 10 months ago. Finally, 4.9% are undecided or did not respond, while in November 2012 the percentage was 8.7%. Furthermore, even if the self-determination referendum was declared illegal, 59.7% of Catalans would still cast their vote, 23.6% would not go to vote and 13.6% do not know what they would do.

54% of the interviewees consider that the worsening of Spain-Catalonia relations is due to the People’s Party (PP)

The Cadena Ser poll asked the interviewees who is mainly responsible for the worsening of the relations between Catalonia and Spain. 54% blame the Spanish right-wing and the People’s Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government – for the recent worsening of relations. 9.4% of the interviewees consider that the Catalan Government is the main culprit. 7% of Catalans would blame the pro-independence parties. Finally, a 12% of the interviewees consider that the main fault is to be found in a series of misunderstandings and/or prejudices between Spanish and Catalan citizens.

The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would win the next elections in Catalonia

The poll also shows an electoral projection which indicates that the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would win with 22.1% of direct support if elections were to be held in Catalonia. This would mean that the ERC continues to increase its electoral support. In the most recent elections to the Catalan Parliament (held in November 2012) the ERC became for the first time since the 1930s the second largest party in the Chamber. The current governing Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would come second with a 20.7% of direct support, 10 percentage points less than 10-months ago.

Furthermore, another surprising fact is that the anti-Catalan nationalist and populist party Ciutadans (C’s) would become the third largest force in the Catalan Parliament with 12.6% of the votes, attracting the widest support of those opposing independence. In the last election it only obtained 7.6% of the votes. The current third largest party in the Catalan Parliament, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) – which is part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and it used to be for three decades the second largest party – would only obtain 10.5% of the votes, continuing its severe decline. 10 months ago it obtained 14.4% in the elections and between 2003 and 2010 it chaired the Catalan Government.

The People’s Party would drop to the 6^th position with a 7% support

The People’s Party – which runs the Spanish Government – would only obtain a 7% of votes, passing from being the fourth-largest party to becoming the sixth largest force. In November 2012, it obtained 13% of the votes, its best result ever in the Catalan Parliament elections.

The Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) would become the 4^th largest force in the Catalan Parliament with a 12.1% support. 10 months ago, the ICV-EUiA obtained 9.9% of the votes. Finally, the radical left-wing and independence party CUP would remain the 7^th largest party in the Catalan Parliament. In November 2012 it obtained 3.5% of the votes and in the Cadena SER’s poll, the CUP would gather a 3.3% support.