Politics

The final declaration of the 2014 São Paulo Forum, which brings together around 100 left-wing parties from Central and South America each year, has demonstrated explicit support for Catalonia's self-determination vote, which is foreseen for the 9^th of November. The XX Encuentro del Foro de São Paulo, which took place in La Paz (Bolivia) between the 25^th and the 29^th of August, gathered together most of the parties that are now running the governments of Spain and Portugal's former colonies in Latin America. The support statement was proposed to be included by 3 Catalan parties: the left-wing independence party ERC, the Catalan green socialist party ICV and the radical left and independence party CUP.

On Friday Spain's Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, warned that the Catalan Law on Consultation Votes will be "automatically suspended" the moment the Spanish Government files an appeal against it. Furthermore, the Deputy PM added that such an appeal will be filed "immediately" after the law is approved by the Catalan Parliament. However, she recognised that the Catalan Government could act in a faster way and issue the decree calling for the self-determination vote – scheduled on the 9^th of November – before the Spanish Executive has filed the appeal. In any case, Sáenz de Santamaría highlighted that once the appeal is filed, both the law and the decree will be cancelled. Furthermore, she insisted on the obligation to respect the Constitution and the current legal framework, which is what provides the offices of those taking decisions in Catalonia and, ultimately, guarantees democracy.

With the aim to stop Catalonia's self-determination vote, the People's Party (PP) has confirmed that the Spanish Government is already preparing two appeals to the Constitutional Court against two legal measures that have not yet been approved. The Government chaired by Mariano Rajoy is preparing a first appeal against the Catalan Law on Consultation Votes, which should be approved in mid-September. This law will be the legal base for the self-determination vote, scheduled for the 9^th of November. Rajoy's second appeal is against the Catalan President's formal call to hold the independence consultation vote; a call that would be issued after the approval of the Consultation Vote Law. With these two appeals against two legal means that still do not exist, and whose exact wording is therefore still unknown, the Spanish Government is looking for the Constitutional Court to temporarily cancel the law and the call, and therefore stop November's vote from happening.

"The time for speculation is over; now it is time for decisions, and this goes for everybody", stated the Spokesperson for the Catalan Government and Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, after the first Cabinet Meeting held after the summer break. Homs was referring to the Spanish Prime Minister's monolithic opposition to the self-determination vote and to the warning sent by the leader of the left-wing independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras. The ERC President "cannot imagine" somebody "breaking the enormous unity" around the independence consultation vote, scheduled for the 9^th of November, which is "the only scenario" agreed on.  Homs insisted in the Catalan Government's "unequivocal commitment" to such a vote. However, he rejected making any speculation on how Catalan authorities should react "to things that have not passed", referring to the likely ban from the Spanish Constitutional Court to the November vote. "We are entering a new stage", he concluded.

Manos Limpias, an extreme-right and Spanish nationalist trade union, will file a judicial complaint against Carme Forcadell, President of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC), the grass-roots NGO that is organising the main campaign for independence from Spain. The far-right organisation will sue Forcadell for "provoking sedition", as they consider she is "the driving force" and "the leader of Catalan civil society", and the main promoter of "a road map" towards independence. In addition, Manos Limpias' Secretary General, Miguel Bernad, said they have "data" showing that "the consultation vote will take place" on the 9^th of November, even if the Spanish authorities ban it. The extreme-right organisation does not rule out the possibility of presenting similar complaints against the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras.

After the controversy of the last few weeks about whether the independence consultation initially scheduled on the 9^th of November might be postponed if the Spanish authorities were to ban it, the 4 Catalan Parliament groups supporting this vote appeared together on Wednesday and reinstated their commitment to such a consultation. They reaffirmed their unity of action and their will to vote even if the Constitutional Court bans the call, based on the Law on Consultation Votes to be approved by the Catalan Parliament in September. Leading figures from the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, the Catalan green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA and the radical left and independence party CUP emphasised that the "people had democratically elected to decide on their collective future through the polling station".

After doubts generated in the last few days around the possibility of postponing next November's independence vote and Tuesday's quarrel among the forces supporting self-determination, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has cooled tensions down. On Wednesday, Mas emphasised that the Catalan Government's only plan is to vote on this 9^th of November, as was agreed among a wide majority of parties. In addition, he also asked the parties to put partisanship aside and "to take risks and [act] smartly". Mas stated that, if the Spanish authorities ban the self-determination vote, the reaction will be agreed among all the parties supporting such a vote. With these words, Mas rejected the idea that the Catalan Government will automatically postpone the vote if the Constitutional Court bans it, as was suggested on Tuesday by the Catalan Vice President, Joana Ortega. Her words and previous statements launched an immediate response from all the other parties which insisted that Catalans had to vote on that day.

Manos Limpias, a Spanish far-right nationalist trade union, has finally filed a judicial complaint for corruption against the historical leader of Catalan nationalism and President of Catalonia between 1980 and 2003, Jordi Pujol, and his wife, Marta Ferrussola. For the last two years, there has been increasing news that allegedly link Pujol's sons to illegal businesses and hidden fortunes. On top of this, two weeks ago, Pujol confessed that his family had been hiding money from the tax authorities for 35 years. This immediately provoked a political earthquake since Pujol is an essential figure in Catalonia's and Spain's contemporary history: he worked to expand Catalonia's autonomy within Spain but in the last two years he started to support independence. Spanish nationalist forces believe that Pujol's fall will have a fatal effect on the self-determination process. However, there are also many rumours stating that the  Spanish authorities might have been protecting Pujol for decades since he was against independence.

In the last few days, the centre-right pro-Catalan state coalition CiU, which runs the Catalan Government, has sent several messages suggesting that the self-determination vote scheduled for the 9^th of November would not take place on that day if the Spanish authorities managed to declare it illegal, despite that fact that it would be backed by Catalan legislation. At first it was the President of the Catalan Executive, Artur Mas, who stated that "the only plan is to vote", being on the 9^th of November consultation or later through plebiscite elections. The last message was sent this Tuesday by the Catalan Vice President, Joana Ortega, who said that "if the [Spanish] State puts obstacles in front of the vote on the 9^th of November" the vote will be postponed. The rest of parties that support the self-determination vote – ERC, ICV-EUiA and CUP – replied to Ortega, saying that Catalans have to vote on that day. In addition, the two grass-roots organisations behind the pro-independence demonstrations of 2012, 2013 and 2014 have stressed that they "will not give up on voting on the 9^th of November".

On Friday the Spanish Tax Agency delivered a summons to the historical leader of Catalan nationalism, Jordi Pujol, who confessed two weeks ago that his family had non-declared money from his father's inheritance in fiscal paradises for more than 35 years. Also on Friday, the Barcelona judge investigating the case requested that Pujol hand in his father's last will and the document accepting the inheritance. In addition, the judge sent petitions to Andorra and Switzerland for financial information about Pujol, his wife and his 7 children. Several media outlets have reported that 4 of Pujol's sons could have fortunes abroad, allegedly out of tax control and coming from corrupt activities. Meanwhile, the person who chaired the Catalan Government between 1980 and 2003 and was essential in Spain's democratic transition and modern history, has been cast out of the party he founded (CDC) and has had all his official honours, pension and office taken away from him.

An independent Catalonia would be totally viable, according to a report conducted by the research institute from the bank, Credit Suisse. In addition it would improve its ranking on the United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) and reach the 20^th position while Spain would drop by three places and reach the 26^th position. The report claims that small countries tend to have a higher standard of living due to a number of factors, such as more efficient services, a higher chance of benefitting from globalisation and a more homogenous population. It uses these findings to predict the HDI of territories seeking independence, such as Catalonia, Scotland, Flanders and Quebec.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated on Tuesday that the self-determination process is following 3 principles: respect for "the law and dialogue", "but also democracy", which will guarantee that citizens are able to vote. He said that the Government "has done its homework" by "providing information" about the process and how to build a new state, by ensuring "participation" from civil society, by proving "a will to talk" with Spanish authorities, and by showing "determination" to go ahead with the mandate resulting from the last Catalan elections to organise such a vote. Mas highlighted that the vote will be legal since it will use Catalan legislation. However, he asked citizens for "psychological strength" for the months ahead and future "challenges". Mas also emphasised that Spain's "economic recovery" is mostly "coming from Catalonia", since Catalans are "leading" the statistics regarding job creation, exports, tourism, scientific research and foreign investment.

Mariano Rajoy, Spain's Prime Minister, admitted that he "does not know what will happen on the 9^th of November", the day on which a majority of Catalan parties agreed upon for holding a self-determination vote, which goes against the Spanish Government's will. However, Rajoy immediately added that the Catalan President, Artur Mas, told him that "he will not be doing anything illegal", in their Wednesday meeting. The Spanish establishment considers such a vote to be illegal while a few constitutional experts say that such a vote could take place if there was the political will to authorise it. A two-third majority of the Catalan Parliament is determined to use Catalonia's legal framework to call a legal vote. Besides, in the press conference held on the Friday before his holidays, Rajoy also admitted that the self-determination debate is not affecting the economy. However, he added that any step generating "uncertainty or doubts" will "not help" the economic recovery.

The Catalan National Assembly, a grass-roots organisation, and Òmnium Cultural, a non-profit association promoting Catalan culture, are behind the massive independence demonstrations of 2012, 2013 and 2014, and in July they presented their new campaign 'Now it's time, united for a new country'. They aimed to mobilize the Catalan people for the self-determination vote scheduled on November the 9^th. There will be events throughout Catalonia and abroad during the 2 months before Catalonia’s National Day (September the 11^th). On that day, a massive demonstration in the shape of a giant V, for 'Votar' (To Vote) and 'Victòria' (Victory), will take place in Barcelona, which is expected to become the largest rally in the Catalonia's history. In addition, more than 30 ANC groups abroad are organising a worldwide campaign #votecatalonia. The political marketing firm Blue State Digital, which managed Obama's digital campaigns, is involved in the initiative.

On Thursday, the Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, admitted that Catalonia will not be able to meet the strict 1% deficit target imposed by the Spanish Government for 2014. In fact, the Catalan Executive had previously warned on several occasions that this deficit target was not realistic, despite the great austerity efforts undertaken over the past four years. In addition, despite Spain's economic recovery of 2014 – which is led by Catalonia – and therefore the increase of taxable activity, the Spanish Government will reduce the Catalan executive's funds by €500 million this year while the deficit target becomes stricter. On Wednesday, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, already stated that, considering the austerity measures adopted since 2011, further budget cuts cannot be undertaken in 2014 without dramatically damaging basic public services such as healthcare and education. Instead of relaxing the deficit target or transferring pending funds and debts to the Catalan Government, the Spanish Finance Ministry will reduce the interest rate that the Autonomous Communities have to pay back to 1% for the loans of the Liquifidity Fund (FLA).