what to do in spain

They say that European legislation foresees the cancellation of the voting rights of an EU Member State if there is “a clear risk of serious […] and persistent breach” of the common values. The four MEPs denounce “the military threats” and “the tone used by the People’s Party and the Spanish Government”. They have sent a formal letter to the European Commissioner for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, Viviane Reding. They ask the EU to be vigilant and “to evaluate the real risks of a potential military intervention” by Spanish forces against Catalonia. If such a risk existed, the EU should suspend Spain’s voting rights in the European Council.

The day the United Kingdom and Scotland signed the agreement to organise the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the Spanish Justice Minister, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, states that the Spanish Government will not agree to organise or even negotiate on a referendum on Catalonia’s independence. Furthermore, the same day, Jaime Mayor Oreja, the leader of the Spanish Euro MPs from the People’s Party (PP), proposed “facing” the Catalan independence movement as was done earlier with ETA’s terrorism. Two weeks ago, Mayor Oreja had already linked the Catalan independence movement with the Basque terrorist group ETA. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, said that if Madrid does not authorise the referendum, Catalonia will appeal to European and international institutions.

An official study issued by the Catalan Finance Ministry shows that Catalan citizens have given €24.77 billion more to the Spanish pension and unemployment funds than they have received back from it. The study takes into account the contributions of Catalan citizens and companies between 1995 and 2010. Without the Catalan contributions, the Spanish Social Security system would have had a €86.33 billion deficit in the same period. The Catalan contribution to the Social Security system was negative in 1995-1996 and 2009-2010, while between 1997 and 2008 it showed a budget surplus. Without Catalonia, Spain’s Social Security would have only had a budget surplus between 2003 and 2007.

A poll taken by the Catalan Survey Institute points out that only 19.9% of Catalans would be against organising a referendum asking if Catalonia should be a new independent European state. 6% would be undecided. The poll also reflects electoral preferences in the next Catalan elections, scheduled on 25th November. 26.3% of citizens would vote for the ruling Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which would clearly win the elections. However, those undecided represent 34.6% of the people interviewed. The votes for the main opposition party in Catalonia, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), would plummet to only 3.1%. The parties clearly supporting the self-determination (CiU, ERC and ICV-EUiA) would become Catalonia’s first, second and third parties.

José Ignacio Wert, the Education Minister, made this statement at the Spanish Parliament, while defending the recentralisation measures he is trying to implement. Wert’s words have provoked major outrage in Catalonia. The Catalan Government, all the non-Spanish nationalist parties, trade unions and civil society organisations have qualified Wert’s statements as being “totalitarian”, “a barbarity”, and “pre-Constitutional”, reminding them of Franco times. Furthermore, many citizens channelled their outrage for Wert’s words through Twitter, making the related hashtag Spain’s main trending topic. Besides, results show Catalan students have better results in Spanish than Spain’s average.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, states that the claim for Catalonia’s independence during the last FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Clásico football game “damages Spain’s brand”. On the contrary, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, praised the demonstration for its peaceful and democratic nature, and for “projecting our identity to the world”. Furthermore, the Spokesperson for the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, considered García-Margallo’s statements to be “undemocratic” for not accepting “the free and democratic expression of the people at Camp Nou”. Thousands of Catalan independence flags were shown at the match – many more than in any other game ever. Furthermore, on several occasions, a large part of the stadium shouted pro-independence chants.

The ALDE and the Greens/EFA consider the statements made by Alejo Vidal-Quadras, Vice-President of the European Parliament and member of the People’s Party (PP), to be “a scandal”. Last week, three Catalan MEPs asked the EP President, Martin Schulz, either to push Vidal-Quadras to apologise or to adopt disciplinary measures against him. Schulz appealed to freedom of expression and said that Catalan voters should judge Vidal-Quadras, elected from a closed party list in a single Spanish constituency. Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE) and Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Greens/EFA) reject Schulz’s cold answer and ask for “a formal debate” on the issue. Now, Vidal-Quadras says he was being “ironical”.

However, CatalunyaBanc would need a maximum of €10.83 billion in the most stressed scenario. According to the independent audit by Oliver Wyman, with KPGM, Deloitte, PwC and Ernst & Young, the Spanish banking system would need a maximum of €53.75 billion in the worst case scenario. 4 banking groups would concentrate 86% of these additional funds. In total, 7 banking groups would need additional funds, while 7 groups would be strong enough, with their own resources, to resist a hypothetical scenario with a 6.5% recession between 2012 and 2014, 27% unemployment, a 85% drop in land prices and a 55% decrease in housing prices.

The Catalan President states that, “if the Constitution is always interpreted from a centralist point of view”, “Catalonia will have to quietly and democratically reflect on its own future” as “no legal framework can be eternally used to annul the majority, democratic, and peaceful will of a people”. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, and the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, met in Madrid 9 days after the 1.5 million strong demonstration for Catalonia’s independence. Rajoy categorically refused to negotiate a specific fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain because he said it does not fit into the Constitution. No one from the Spanish Government addressed the press after the meeting.

As part of the strategy to create state structures and to get a new fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain, the Catalan Government and the four Provincial Councils, all run by the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), have created the embryo of Catalonia’s Treasury. They will merge exiting structures, in terms of facilities, staff and resources, to create a single body to collect all taxes at local and Catalan level at no extra cost. The pillar for the future Catalan Treasury’s formal birth ceremony comes the day before the crucial meeting between Catalonia’s President, Artur Mas, and the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy. Rajoy has already said he will not accept a specific fiscal agreement for Catalonia.

In a very unusual movement, Juan Carlos I has issued a short but clear letter one week after the massive demonstration for Catalonia’s independence. The King emphasised the need to remain “united” and asked the people to retake the “values” of the “Democratic Transition”, such as “dialogue” and “the sacrifice of particular interests for the general good”. The Catalan Government does not feel “concerned” by the King’s letter. However, it states that Catalonia “offers solutions” and “does not chase pipe dreams”. Spanish nationalists celebrate the King’s words while PM Mariano Rajoy still remains silent. Catalan and Basque nationalists criticise the King for taking sides and not emphasising values such as “pluralism, diversity, tolerance, and respect for discrepancies”.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) is against independence but supports claims for greater self-government and fiscal autonomy for Catalonia. The PSC’s Secretary General, Pere Navarro, proposes a “preferential bilateral relationship” between Catalonia and the Spanish Government, within an “asymmetrical” federal Spain. However, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), which is formed by federated territorial parties such as the PSC, seems to evade the question, at least for the time being. The PSOE’s Secretary General visited Catalonia for the first time after the 1.5 million strong demonstration for independence and did not mention the word “federalism” a single time.

The Autonomous Communities are responsible for 18.7% of Spain’s global public debt, while they manage around 40% of the country’s public spending. The Spanish Government’s share represents 76.8% of Spain’s global debt, which reached €804.39 billion at the end of June. Spain’s debt is now 75.9% of the GDP. The Catalan Government has a debt of €43.95 billion. The day before, the Spanish Finance Minister announced that the Catalan Government had a 0.59% deficit for the first half of 2012. Furthermore, Catalonia suffers from a structural fiscal deficit due to Spain’s fiscal redistribution scheme, which annually takes away 8.5% of its GDP, a €17 billion annual solidarity contribution.

At a conference in Madrid, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, warned Spain about the “great mistake” of downplaying the massive demonstration for independence. No members of the Spanish Government or leaders of the Socialist Party (PSOE) attended the event, which is unusual. In front of a crowded audience with many foreign press, Catalan MPs and businesspeople, Mas explained that Catalonia “has been trying for decades to reform Spain to make it our state”. However, Catalans are now “tired” from “the lack of respect” and the “disloyalty”. “If Spain denies the fact of Catalonia being a nation”, “many issues will not be solved”. Then “it is logical for a people to solve their future “peacefully, democratically and in a strictly European way”.

However, the Commission also clarified Barroso’s words from late August. A Commission Spokesman said hours before the kick off of the independence demonstration that in the case of secession from Spain, Catalonia would no longer be part of the EU. A negotiation process to join the EU would be required. However, other EU sources stated that the hypothetical new state may have the same benefits of a “transitional” member. They also added that the accession process would be “faster and easier”. Catalan citizens have been net contributors to the EU for decades and are currently considered European Citizens, but this is “additional”, according to Barroso.