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Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

Exports from Catalonia increased by 3.1% in 2014, reaching €60.2 billion, meaning that more than 30% of the Catalan GDP is sold outside of Spain. Furthermore, Catalan exports grew more than those of Spain as a whole, which increased by 2.5% last year, reaching €240 billion. This means that 25.1% of all Spain’s exports come from Catalonia’s economy, some way ahead of the Madrid region, which produces 11.7% of Spain’s total exports. In addition, the growth rate of Catalan exports was much higher than the Eurozone average (exports from which grew by 1.8%) and also higher than that of EU Member States such as France (-0.2%), UK (-11.1%) and Italy (+2%). The figures posted this Wednesday confirm the good health of Catalonia’s export sector and the high degree of internationalisation of its economy.

The Catalan Government’s Deputy Minister for External Affairs, Roger Albinyana, announced the Executive’s aim to have a network of “about 50 delegations” throughout the world, representing Catalonia’s political, business and cultural interests abroad. The Catalan Government currently has 7 delegations abroad, after the new representations in Rome and Vienna start to work on Monday, when the representatives were appointed. The 5 others are located in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. In the coming “months and years”, the Catalan Government will continue to open new delegations. Regardless of the hypothetical independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive already has the powers to have its own External Action policy, recognised by the Catalan Statute of Autonomy from 2006, although with many limitations.

According to a study by the Professional Association of Economists of Catalonia (Col·legi d’Economistes), an independent Catalonia would obtain a much better grade from rating agencies than it currently gets, taking into account its diversified economy and higher GDP per capita than the European average. Specifically, it would obtain an A+ rating, 7 levels higher than the current BB ‘junk bond’, using Standard&Poor’s classification. The study highlights that without the current fiscal deficit with the rest of Spain, the rating would be “at least” that of the Basque Country and would enable the Catalan Government to access the international financial markets. Catalan taxpayers pay much more to the Spanish Government than the amount they get back in terms of services and infrastructure; a fiscal deficit equivalent to between €13bn and €17.5bn per year.

Adam Price, the former Member of Westminster Parliament and Harvard University expert, believes it “would be very difficult” to argue that an independent Catalan state would not be prosperous. In fact, he thinks Catalonia “would have done better” without being part of Spain. Price is an acclaimed economist and political expert and the author of a report written for Harvard University on the economic potential of smaller countries. In the report Price examines how smaller European economies have a higher chance of gaining economic success than larger ones. Studying small European nations, Price believes, without a doubt, that an independent Catalonia would have huge potential in the long run. However, he also stresses that “transition cost” are another debate.

Indignation at the Castor Project has increased due to the €1.35 billion payment issued by the Spanish Government to Escal UGS, the company behind the controversial offshore gas platform. The amount will be charged through gas bills to consumers over the next 30 years, starting on April 2016, making individual citizens pay the private-business bailout, partially funded through €1.4 billion worth of bonds from the European Union. This business project failed after a gas injection caused almost 1,000 small earthquakes in Southern Catalonia and northern Valencia. The Spanish Executive has been forced to compensate the company due to clause 14 of the 2008 Royal Decree, according to which the state would pay for the bailout in the event of the project failing to come to completion. 

Barcelona plays host this weekend to the 1^st Southern Europe Forum, under the slogan '#southrEUvolution'. Politicians from the European Alternative Left-wing parties and the leaders of the main social movements will meet in Catalonia to broaden political alliances. The main objective of the meeting is to create alternative policies for the south of Europe, different to the austerity measures promoted by the Troika. The forum has been promoted by the Catalan Green Socialist and post-Communist coalition ICV-EUiA, with the support of the Spanish United Left Party (IU) and the Greek Alternative Left Party Syriza. At the forum leading MEPs such as Pascal Durand, from the French Green Party and the European Green Party (EGP) co-president Monica Frassoni will also be present.  

The Catalan Green Socialist and post-Communist coalition ICV-EUiA has presented the manifesto 'Catalonia with Tsipras' supporting Syriza, the Alternative Left Party that according to the polls could win the upcoming Greek General Election. More than 2,500 people have already signed the document through Change.org. The manifesto states that a clear win for the Alexis Tsipras party would be best for Europeans, in order to "initiate a necessary rebellion" in Southern Europe. The leaders of the main Catalan trade unions and some actors, writers and academics have expressed their support for the text. Barcelona will host a meeting focused on these elections on the 24^th of January.  

The document will be sent to the United Nations, the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The Spanish Government “violates the Catalan people’s right to decide its own political future and bans the exercise of democracy through a referendum or an internationally standardised consultation vote”, reads the complaint, signed by 1,386,628 citizens and 3,703 elected representatives such as mayors and MPs. They complain about the “Spanish Government’s anti-democratic attitude”, which ignored an electoral mandate from 2012 to hold a legal and binding self-determination vote in Catalonia, among other facts. The signatures were collected during the symbolic vote on independence held on 9 November by the civil society organisations Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, as well as by the Association of Municipalities for Independence (AMI). 

Following the agreement reached last week between the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing pro-independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, on calling early elections in September as a plebiscite on Catalonia’s independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive’s budget for 2015 is now closer to definitive approval. On Monday, the ERC MPs started to withdraw their full amendments to the different sections of the Catalan Government’s budget. Now, the ERC is asking the CiU and the Government to debate their specific amendments on precise programmes in order to have “a fairer budget” which is less regional and more that of a country in its “national transition”, they said.

The European Commission has warned Spain that 6 Autonomous Communities, including Catalonia, should cancel their tax on large-sized shopping centres because it may represent indirect State aid benefiting smaller shops and therefore damaging free competition. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, announced legal actions to defend this tax, which was validated by the Constitutional Court. Catalonia’s shopping model has a great presence of small and local shops, mostly run by families with a small number of employees. In order to protect this model and make it compatible with new shopping malls and large-sized international shops, in 2000 the Catalan Parliament created a tax on shops larger than 2,500 square metres. Currently, it is set at €17 per year per square metre. The revenue collected is devoted to actions promoting local retail.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is also leader of the conservative and Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP), strongly criticised the announcement of early elections made by the Catalan President, Artur Mas, the evening before. Mas announced elections in Catalonia for 27 September this year, transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. These elections are the only way Catalans can vote on this issue, taking into account the Spanish Government’s total opposition to even talking about self-determination demands, which were backed by an absolute majority of citizens in the last Catalan elections (held in November 2012) which themselves were already a plebiscite on having a legal vote on independence. However, as opposed to the British Government, Rajoy refused to even discuss these demands, has not made any concessions, and has showed total opposition, which has even involved the criminal prosecution of the Catalan President.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has announced early elections to be held on the 27^th of September this year, which will become a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain. Before then, the Catalan Government and Parliament will continue to develop some basic state structures, such as Catalonia’s own tax administration and Social Security system. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing pro-independence party ERC have now “rebuilt” their parliamentary stability pact for the current term after weeks of public disagreements and confusion over the next steps of the self-determination process. After a long meeting on Wednesday evening between Mas, the ERC’s President Oriol Junqueras and representatives from the main civil society organisations supporting independence, they have also agreed on running separately but sharing the same road map to build an independent state from the day after the elections, if a majority of Catalans vote for this option. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, assessed on Tuesday the Executive’s work during 2014, which he found to be “positive” overall, although he admitted there are still many people in great need and many social and economic challenges ahead. Referring to the current debate on whether to call early elections transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain, Mas promised immediate decisions to be announced on Thursday. Before taking the definitive decision and after weeks of admitted “confusion”, the Catalan President wants to hold a last round of talks with the main civil society organisations supporting independence and the left-wing pro-independence party ERC – with whom the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU has shared a parliamentary stability agreement for the last 2 years. “I will not slack” in the self-determination process, Mas stated.

The left-wing pro-independence party ERC has accepted the last proposal put forward by the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, to run separately in early elections but with a large part of civil society representatives and independents being included in the President’s candidacy. However, the ERC has not ruled out the possibility of also including civil society representatives in its own list and wants elections in March. Any such elections should become a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. The Catalan President accused the ERC of “twisting” his proposal. Furthermore, sources of the Catalan Government criticised the ERC’s “intransigency” because “they have not moved from their initial stance” of running separately in elections taking place this winter. Mas initially wanted to run together but was not particularly in a hurry to call the elections.