unemployment

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and Barcelona-based Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) think tanks, together with an Italian and a Greek research centre, have presented a report stating that the economy of an independent Catalonia would grow more in the next 15 years than if the current 'status quo' was kept. The study analyses 3 different scenarios: the current model, an agreed independence process and a unilateral declaration of independence. In either case of independence, the Catalan economy would be in better shape in the long-run than if the current framework was kept, the researchers conclude. However, in the event of a unilateral process, there may be negative economic effects in the short-term, mostly due to uncertainties related to EU Membership. Nonetheless, they consider the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme – imposed by the Spanish Government – "unsustainable at macroeconomic level" for Catalonia.

According to 'Memòria Econòmica 2014' (an annual analysis promoted by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce), last year the Catalan economy registered its best performance since the start of the economic crisis. In particular, for the first time since 2007, positive net results in terms of employment were recorded. However, current GDP is still 6% below 2007 levels and will remain so until 2016. In addition, if growth continues at the current rate, employment will only reach 2007 levels in seven years, which means in 2021. According to the report's estimates, at the end of 2015, Catalonia will record a 3% GDP growth.

Catalonia was last month again the Spanish Autonomous Community with the most intense monthly and annual decline in registered unemployment, official data released on Thursday show. According to the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security, by the end of June 2015 there were 20,952 fewer people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) in comparison to May 2015, leaving the total number of registered unemployed individuals at 510,947. This drop is, in absolute terms, the lowest recorded for the month of June in the last 3 years. However, in relative terms, registered unemployment fell by -3.94%, the biggest decline for the month of June in 19 years. Compared to a year ago, the number of jobseekers decreased by 59,267 (-10.39%), thus marking a two-year period of consecutive annual decline in registered unemployment.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed and improved its economic growth forecasts for Spain, going from a 2.5% growth rate for 2015 forecast in April to a 3.1% one foreseen this June, and from 2% to 2.5% for 2016. However, the IMF has also issued recommendations and warnings, emphasising that Spain will have to carry out "additional fiscal efforts" and "structural reforms" in order not to jeopardise the country’s economic recovery. The IMF recommends that Spain reduce the costs of public healthcare and education by making users pay for part of the services. According to the international organisation, Autonomous Community governments – such as Catalonia's – should have greater fiscal responsibilities in such systems since they exclusively manage them. In this vein, the IMF has praised the fiscal consolidation efforts undertaken over the past few years by regional governments and has asked for an increase in their funding and fiscal powers, as well as for the adapting of the deficit targets to their needs.

Last month Catalonia was where the most intense monthly and annual drops in unemployment were registered in Spain. At the end of May, 531,899 people were on the Catalan Public Employment Service's (SOC) lists. This means 21,075 fewer jobseekers than in April 2015 (-3.81%), representing the most significant monthly drop registered for the month of May for 19 years (when the historical record started). Catalonia also registered a 10.2% annual drop in unemployment in comparison to May 2014 - representing 60,405 fewer people unemployed - the biggest annual decline since May 2000. It is has now accumulated 23 consecutive months of annual decline. In Spain as a whole, at the end of May 2015, the number of people registered as unemployed stood at 4.21 million, with 117,985 less jobseekers than in April 2015. An encouraging sign given that in the last 7 years registered unemployment had been falling at an average of 58,000 people from April to May.

Catalans are holding their municipal elections on Sunday, while the elections to the Catalan Parliament are to be held in September, as opposed to other parts of Spain, where they are voting for their regional parliaments on Sunday. These municipal elections come after 7 years of economic crisis and also with very uncertain political horizons. Two debates have dominated the campaign: Catalonia’s independence and the rise of new or secondary parties that promise to change the current model. For many people in Catalonia, Sunday’s elections will be a first stage of the ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence that is going to take place with the Catalan elections on 27 September. It is also the opportunity to support changing the current political, economic and social model, with the rise of alternative left coalitions. Furthermore, majorities and town halls go through significant changes, particularly in Barcelona and the cities of its Metropolitan Area, where there are no clear winners forecast and surprises are likely to happen.

Official data released on Tuesday by the Spanish Employment Ministry show that both Catalonia and Spain as a whole registered the largest monthly decline in unemployment for a month of April since 1996. In particular, Catalonia closed last month with 552,974 people registered on the Catalan Public Employment Service's list, which means 18,681 fewer jobseekers in comparison with March 2015, a 3.27% drop. In annual terms, registered unemployment in Catalonia fell by 9.62% (58,848 fewer people), which is the highest percentage decline since May 2000. These figures mean that registered unemployment in Catalonia has fallen for 22 consecutive months. In Spain as a whole, at the end of April 2015 the number of people registered as unemployed stood at 4,333,016, which means 118,923 fewer jobseekers than in March, representing a 2.67%. In annual terms, registered unemployment in Spain dropped by 7.5%, as 351,285 fewer people were registered as looking for a job.

The number of unemployed people in Catalonia has risen by 1,500 people during the first quarter of 2015. The percentage has increased for a second consecutive period although the figures are better than a year ago. According to figures from the Spanish Government's Labour Force Survey, released on Thursday, 758,000 people are out of work in Catalonia and the unemployment rate has risen in quarterly terms. However the first quarter of 2015 has 82,100 less unemployed people than those in the same period in 2014, when the rate was 22.1%. Throughout the whole of Spain, the unemployment rate also increased since the previous quarter, reaching 23.78%.

The Catalan Government announced on Tuesday a new programme to assist unemployed people aged 45 and over to return to the labour market and find a new job. The Executive has ordered Catalonia's Public Employment Service (SOC) to launch the programme, the details of which will be fine-tuned in the coming weeks. According to the Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, the plan will have a budget of around €50 million and 30,000 people should benefit from it. Puig highlighted that the number of people registered as unemployed has decreased for 21 consecutive months in annual terms, but there is still a great effort needed to improve the overall high unemployment figures. Furthermore, young people and those over 45 have the greatest difficulty finding a new job.

At the end of March 2015, there were 571,655 people registered as unemployed in Catalonia. This is 9,469 fewer jobseekers in comparison with February 2015, representing a 1.63% drop. It is also the largest monthly decline in absolute terms since 1996. In annual terms, this was the biggest drop in the last two decades, as the number of jobseekers fell by 52,812 people (-8.46%). Moreover, registered unemployment in Catalonia declined for the 21^st consecutive month in annual terms. In Spain as a whole, at the end of March 2015 the number of people registered as unemployed stood at 4.45 million, with 60,214 fewer jobseekers than in February (which represents a 1.33% drop, the largest decline in 13 years). In annual terms, registered unemployment fell by 343,927 (-7.17 %), a positive sign considering that during the last 6 years it had grown in the month of March by an average of more than 35,000 people.

The number of Catalans with Spanish nationality living abroad and registered with consulates rose by 9.31% between 1 January 2014 and 1 January 2015, according to data from the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE), which is a legally independent institution run by the Spanish Government. In early 2014, there were 221,444 Catalans living in a foreign country, while a year later this figure had risen to 242,070, thus registering a 20,626 person increase. Regarding Spain as a whole, on the 1 January 2015, there were 2,183,043 citizens living abroad and registered with consulates. This represents a 6.1% growth on the figures from January 2014, when there were 124,995 less Spaniards living abroad. 

Catalonia has a long history with immigration, welcoming foreigners from all over the world has left it with a cosmopolitan and multicultural nature. In more recent years, immigration has been well-documented by the Catalan Government and official statistics, which show various patterns. The first wave of people arriving in Catalonia, especially in the industrial capital of Barcelona, were domestic immigrants from within Spain, while later many came from South America and Northern Africa. The recent economic crisis caused a lull in these figures, but the number of foreign nationals from Asia and Europe (especially Italy and the UK) has increased over more recent years. Conscious of the need for sustainable co-living, Catalonia taken pains to accommodate its diverse population and the ACN spoke to several people about their experience moving to Barcelona.

At the end of February 2015, there were 581,124 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 1,645 fewer jobseekers than were registered at the end of January (582,769), a 0.28% drop. In addition, at the end of February 2015 there were 48,462 fewer registered jobseekers than a year ago, which marks the largest annual decline for registered unemployment in the last 17 years for a February month. This represents a 7.7% fall in the last 12 months. The data released on Tuesday shows an encouraging trend for Spain as a whole as well, since registered unemployment fell by 13,538 people in monthly terms, a 0.3% drop. In annual terms, the Spanish labour market posted a 6.24% drop, with 300,333 fewer registered jobseekers.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

According to a recent study published by the Swiss research centre, IMD World Competitiveness Centre, Catalonia would be the 38^th most competitive state in the world if it were independent. The list, headed by the United States, shows that an independent Catalonia would be 2 places above Spain, which currently occupies 40^th position (including Catalonia). The report highlights the strengths of Catalonia such as business efficiency, as well as the weaknesses, which stem from certain inefficiencies of the public sector. Apart from focusing on quantitative indicators, the study also has a section that is based on qualitative surveys of a country’s companies. Catalan executives consider Singapore, Germany, Ireland and the UAE to be the most lucrative for business development and ranked Catalonia 24^th on the list, which is 21 places above Spain.