unemployment rate

The largest employer’s association in Catalonia, Foment del Treball, expects that the economic recovery in both Catalonia and the whole of Spain will not lead to a growth in employment and consumption until late 2014 or early 2015, as explained in the Report on the Economic Situation published on Thursday. The Director of Foment’s Economics and Taxation Department, Salvador Guillermo, said in a press conference that the economic recovery is being “consolidated”. Nevertheless, he added that ongoing structural reforms in the energy sector, public administration or the financial system should continue. According to Guillermo, the reduction of public deficit must be slowed down in order to avoid any negative impact on the economic recovery. 

In February, 629,586 people were enrolled on the unemployment lists in Catalonia, representing a decrease of 4,285 unemployed people on the same month last year, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Employment and Social Security Ministry. It is also the sharpest decline for a month of February since 2004, when 5,138 fewer jobseekers were registered. With this latest drop in the unemployment figures, Catalonia has achieved eight consecutive months of registered unemployment reduction in annual terms. In the whole of Spain, unemployment stood at 4,812,486 people, down by 1,949 people in February. It is the first decrease for the month of February since the beginning of the crisis in 2007.

The President of Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, stated on Thursday that the independence process was not affecting Catalonia’s economic recovery. During a press conference, Valls emphasised that such a statement was based on concrete “facts”. He stressed that Catalonia had tripled the amount of incoming foreign investment compared to the Spanish average, and that the Catalan economy had also registered better figures in enterprise creation and business confidence, employment and other indicators showing an economic recovery According to the report on conjecture and economic perspectives, the Catalan GDP grew by 0.7% during the fourth quarter of 2013, whereas the Spanish GDP dropped by 0.1%. Valls also recalled that the consultation vote on the political future of Catalonia would involve “citizens and not businesses”, thus responding to the employers who recently voiced their opposition to Catalonia’s independence.

In annual terms, there were 27,946 less registered unemployed people in January 2014 than in January 2013, meaning a 4.22 % drop. Seven consecutive months of decreases in the registered unemployed figures had not been achieved since June 2007. Besides, in monthly terms, the latest figures also show a positive trend. Indeed, January is traditionally a month where unemployment increases, with the only drop recorded since 1997, the beginning of the series, dating back to January 1998. In January 2014, unemployment grew by 8,999 people compared to December 2013, the mildest increase registered in that month since 2007. Referring to these latest figures, the Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that he was “moderately optimistic”.

The Catalan business community is deeply annoyed with the Spanish Government for not publishing transparent data on Catalonia’s fiscal contribution to the rest of Spain and therefore not recognising the fiscal deficit. The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, was supposed to issue the so-called fiscal balances last December but their publication was inexplicably delayed. Last Friday, in late January, Montoro announced the fiscal balances would no longer be calculated and published in the present form; instead, he would publish in March the “regionalised public figures” stating the costs of public services per citizen because the fiscal balances were “incomplete and incoherent”. However, on Tuesday, the Minister recognised that they were “correct” but “wrongly used” to support Catalan independence claims.

Catalonia ended 2013 with an unemployment rate of 22.26% and a total of 820,400 people unemployed, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA) for the fourth quarter. In late 2013 Catalonia registered 64,700 fewer unemployed people compared to the last quarter of 2012. At Spanish level, the unemployment rate was set at 26.03 %, with a total of 5,896,300 unemployed people. At the end of 2013, there were 69,100 fewer unemployed than in the last quarter of 2012. Furthermore, between September and December there were 8,400 fewer jobseekers in Spain. In the same 3-month period there were 20,100 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia. The Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that these figures were “the best since the start of the crisis” since “for the first time, the number of employed has increased and the number of unemployed has decreased”.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

The “very moderate” growth expectations for 2014, between 0.5% and 1%, will make it “difficult” for the unemployment rates to fall below the current 27%. This was the conclusion of the 2014 Economic Report of Barcelona-based ESADE, one of the top business schools in the world. The main author of the report stressed that this “slow and costly” growth should contribute only in a “very reduced” way to creating new jobs in 2014. However, he also explained that the Labour Market Reform would have positive effects on employment levels in the medium and long term. The study indicates that consumption in 2014 will “remain restricted” due to the high unemployment rates and reduced wages.

Next to the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (who went to the White House), the President of the United States, Barack Obama, did not talk about Catalonia despite being asked about it directly by a journalist. Obama did not repeat the formula expressed by other international leaders – it is Spain’s internal matter – but instead preferred to avoid the issue. He did not explicitly back the Spanish PM, despite the fact that Rajoy had stated, only a few minutes earlier, that “Catalonia’s independence will not happen”. Rajoy’s meeting with Obama and the following press conference at the White House were also controversial because the Spanish Government banned several media that were covering the trip and only allowed one Catalan newspaper to attend it.

Speaking to the Economic Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, the European Commissioner for Employment, Lázló Andor, said that Spain should profit from its decentralised organisation to help fight youth unemployment. He suggested that the rest of Spain’s Autonomous Communities should follow the examples of Catalonia and Navarra to improve employment levels among youngsters. The European Commissioner said that Spanish authorities should take note of the plans launched by Catalonia and Navarra, where the youth unemployment situation “is better than the national average”. However, despite these levels being lower than in most of Spain, youth unemployment in Catalonia is worryingly high, at more than 53% in July.

The Catalan Government has forecasted a 0.9% economic growth for 2014 in its budget proposal for next year, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%). The positive figures are mostly due to the strength of the export sector – which will continue to improve its results. The main factor slowing down growth will be the internal demand, which will continue to decrease although it will do so at a lower pace. In addition, the Catalan Executive believes the unemployment rate will decrease and reach 23.1% by the end of the year. It is expected 2013 will end with a 23.7% unemployment rate, higher than the 22.6% rate registered at the end of 2012.

However, in annual terms, Catalonia registered a fourth consecutive drop in unemployment figures with a 1.93 % decrease compared to October 2012 and 12,474 fewer jobseekers. By the end of October 2013, 633,832 people were registered as unemployed at the offices of the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC), meaning a 2.08% increase since the month of September, with 12,921 extra people unemployed. These latest figures, which were released by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security, also indicate a third consecutive month of growth in unemployment. In the whole of Spain, registered unemployment also increased for the third consecutive month.

In Catalonia, the unemployment rate decreased by 32,500 people to reach 22.84%. The Spanish Labour Force Survey has recorded two consecutive semesters of decrease in the unemployment figures after new highs had been reached in early 2013. Catalonia is currently leading the country in terms of unemployment reduction: on the Spanish Scale, the latest figures indicate a drop in 72,800 people while the rate is set at 25.98%.

At Spanish level, unemployment increased both in monthly and annual terms. Catalonia is the Autonomous Community with the largest annual unemployment drop in absolute terms and the second highest in relative terms. The number of people registered as unemployed in Catalonia at the end of September dropped by 11,546 individuals compared to figures from a year ago, representing a 1.83% annual decrease. However, in monthly terms, registered unemployment increased by 1.51%, with 9,243 more jobseekers. September is a month with a traditional unemployment increase due to the end of summer season contracts. Last September’s unemployment increase was the lowest since 2008.

Following a decade of significant increases in the amount of foreign nationals in Catalonia, it appears that many are beginning to leave as job opportunities dry up. In 2000, the percentage of foreign nationals living in Catalonia was 2.9%, while just over a decade later in 2011 this figure had increased to 15.73%. However, in the past couple of years the amount is beginning to reduce: between 2009 and 2013, 44,000 foreign nationals left Catalonia. According to the Spokesperson of non-governmental organisation SOS Racisme, Jose Peñín, immigrants are leaving as “they have less stable contracts and work in more abusive conditions”.