spain

King Juan Carlos' succession process is not explicitly backed by the Centre-Right pro-Catalan State Coalition Convergència i Unió (CiU), which played a crucial role in Spain's Transition from dictatorship to democracy and guaranteed on many occasions Spain's stability. However, this time, the CiU has decided to abstain in the vote on the Law on Juan Carlos' abdication, as it was announced last week. The CiU accused Spain's two largest parties – the governing People's Party (PP) and the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – of having excluded them from this and previous processes. The bill was approved on Wednesday by 85% of the Spanish Parliament, but only with the votes from the PP, the PSOE and the Spanish nationalist and populist UPyD. The Catalan and Basque conservative nationalists have abstained, while the left-wing Catalan parties have voted against it. The CiU was an essential part of the consensus of the 1978 Constitution, which once again proves to be broken.

The Centre-Right pro-Catalan State Coalition, Convergència i Unió (CiU), which runs the Catalan Government and was an essential part of Spain's Transition from dictatorship to democracy, will not vote in favour of the law regulating the King's abdication. The CiU, which has played a crucial role in Spanish politics, has decided to abstain in the Spanish Parliament's vote, in line with its support of Catalonia's self-determination process. All other Catalan parties are expected to oppose the succession process, with the exception of the Catalan socialist Party (PSC) –part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – and the Catalan branch of the People's Party (PP). In his first speech after his father's abdication announcement, the soon-to-be Felipe VI promised "to serve […] our beloved Spain", "a nation, a political and social community, united, diverse, which deepens its root in a millenary history".

The South-African Archbishop Desmond Tutu has travelled to Barcelona to receive the XXVI Premi Internacional Catalunya, the highest tribute the Catalan Government accords following an independent jury's decision. The award recognises people who have made significant contributions to Humankind. Addressing journalists on Tuesday morning, ahead of the evening award ceremony in Barcelona, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate spoke of the Spanish authorities' necessity of an open dialogue about Catalan independence. Tutu was surprised that such a vote could take place in Scotland but not in Catalonia. He stated that Spain's denial of the strong support for self-rule only exacerbates the problem. At the press conference, the Archbishop also touched upon the subject of King Juan Carlos' abdication, saying he believed a monarchy could be a force for good when "it helps draw people together", although he also underlined that all human beings are equal.

Catalan parties, business associations and other institutions have reacted  to the abdication of King Juan Carlos announced this Monday morning. All the left-wing parties except the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) – which is part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – have called for a referendum on the monarchy's continuity and the instauration of a Republic. In fact, a series of demonstrations were held in several Catalan cities demanding a new Republic. The other widespread reaction came from those not questioning the monarchy, although all of them ask for a "modern King." Instead, most of them ask Crown Prince Felipe to be sensitive to the Catalans' will to self-determination and they expect he will act as a mediator to enable a negotiated way out to the current political conflict.

As King Juan Carlos I announced the end of his 38 year reign, he will be remembered as the Head of State who drove the transition to democracy after the dictatorship of Francisco Franco, and overcame the coup d'état on 23 February 1981. In 1969, Franco appointed him his successor, and he took the throne on 22 November 1975.  Within months King Juan Carlos had chosen Adolfo Suárez as the first Spanish Prime Minister after Franco's Dictatorship. Once the Spanish Constitution was approved in 1978 and parliamentary monarchy established after the 1981 coup, the King enjoyed years of relative stability as one of Europe´s most popular monarchs. However, since 2011, his image has deteriorated as a result of a long running corruption investigation into the business dealings of his daughter and her husband, and in 2012 his reputation was further tarnished by a €10,000 hunting trip to Botswana during Spain´s deep economic crisis.

After the abdication of King Juan Carlos was announced this Monday morning, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, made a statement in which he emphasised that Catalonia's self-determination process was continuing. Mas wished the Crown Prince and soon-to-be new King Felipe "good luck" and "to make wise decisions and be successful, because we want things to work out for Spain, and the monarchy represents the Spanish State." However, he asked the new King and the rest of Spanish institutions "to respect the Catalans' will" to hold a self-determination vote in order "to decide on our collective future, based on mutual respect and loyal cooperation". Such a vote has been scheduled by a large majority of Catalan parties for 9November, 2014.

All the political reactions to the death of former Spanish Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez highlight his crucial role leading Spain from Franco’s Dictatorship to Democracy, as well as his capacity to build consensus. However, Madrid-based politicians are stressing how he worked for the  unity of Spain and conviviality among its citizens. Meanwhile, Catalan parties are emphasising Suárez's courage in ending Franco's laws and how he worked to institutionalise what was already normal at street level. For instance, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, pointed out how Suárez restored Catalonia's autonomy in September 1977 before the approval of the Constitution in December 1978. Suárez, who had reached top positions within Franco's Regime, was appointed Prime Minister by King Juan Carlos in June 1976, seven months after the dictator's death.

In an article published on Tuesday in the prestigious ‘Financial Times’, the newspaper’s chief foreign affairs commentator, Gideon Rachman, deplored Madrid’s attitude towards Catalan independence claims, opposing it to the “peaceful” and “consensual” Scottish referendum process enabled by the British Government. The journalist underlined that “there are remarkably few examples of nations breaking up in a civilised way”, mentioning China’s relations with Taiwan, or Turkey’s attitude towards Kurdistan. “Even in democratic Europe, Spain is refusing to contemplate the idea of an independence referendum for Catalonia”, he added. London’s attitude regarding the Scottish case, on the other hand, should be viewed as “a model” for other separatist cases, recognising the UK as a union of nations and stressing the people’s right to decide.

Around 60 German businesspeople working in Catalonia have issued a manifesto against independence from Spain. They warn against “the dreadful consequences” that independence would bring for the Catalan economy. The manifesto signers, who work in companies that invested millions in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain, state that independence would represent the automatic expulsion from the European Union. They also add that “it is doubtful” it could still use the Euro. Furthermore, they “warn about the dangers of a nationalist fervour, which in the last century, has brought immeasurable suffering to Europe and which will neither bring anything good to Catalonia”. Besides, on the same day, the President of Spain’s main employer association, Juan Rosell, stated that independence would be “disastrous” for human relations. The Catalan Government respects their opinion but has refused to comment on the manifesto.

The Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), linked to the Catalan Government, published “an experimental poll” based on 1,830 interviews on 10 different future scenarios, such as an independent Catalonia within the European Union, an independent Catalonia being expelled from the EU and independence bringing a positive economic impact. In the event that the Spanish Government insists in not changing anything regarding the current relationship between Catalonia and Spain, 62.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum while 22.5% would oppose it and 7.8% would abstain. It is the highest-ever support to independence registered in an opinion poll. On the other hand, if the EU automatically expelled Catalonia if its citizens were to vote for independence, 45.4% would still vote “yes”, 37.6% would vote “no” and 12.7% would abstain. For all scenarios independence is the clear winner.

Banc Sabadell, the second largest banking company in Catalonia, has ended 2013 with a net profit of €247.8 million, three times more than in 2012, after consuming €1,736.6 million in provisions and allowances for non-payments of loans, impairment of property and other financial operations. Due to the new regulations of the Bank of Spain on credit repayment and the acquisitions of other banking companies, the percentage of delayed or unpaid loans has climbed to 13.63%, 46% more than in 2012. Without the refunding operations, it would have been fixed at 11.13 %. The bank’s core capital, which is the main solvency indicator, stood at 12% and, with the new Basel III, it was set at 10.1%. Jaume Guardiola, CEO of Sabadell, believes that this trend can be the “turning point” of a crisis that was first anticipated when the results for 2012 were announced.

The Bureau of the Spanish Parliament has accepted a debate on the Catalan Parliament’s bill requesting the transfer to the Catalan Executive of the powers to organise referendums, using Article 150.2 of the Spanish Constitution. The Bureau, totally controlled by the People’s Party (PP), has not discussed the contents and has only approved requesting the Catalan Parliament to send the bill’s full dossier, the step before putting the bill on the agenda. The motion would be debated in September, although there is a chance it could be rescheduled for June. However, Catalan parties will register an identical bill at the Spanish Parliament to discuss it even earlier, probably in March. The bill was approved by the Catalan Parliament with 87 ‘yes’ votes, 43 ‘no’ votes and 3 abstentions that considered the request was slowing down self-determination.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, stated in a TV interview on Monday evening that he has “a plan” to prevent Catalonia’s self-determination and “guaranteed” that “the independence of any Spanish territory will not happen while [he is] in office”. Rajoy emphasised that his plan’s guidelines are, firstly, “implementing the law”. The Spanish PM said he is “ready for any scenario that might happen”, but refused to disclose any measure. Secondly, he would be “working on increasing the bonds that have always united the whole Catalan people and the people living in Catalonia that are not born in Catalonia with the whole Spanish people”. Thirdly, “working to solve the problems of the Spanish and Catalan economies”, as well as the funding of the Catalan Government. However, Rajoy stated he “will not call” the Catalan President, Artur Mas, despite the offers to talk.

The Spanish Education Minister, José Ignacio Wert, emphasised the need to have a common and single history of Spain taught in all the Autonomous Communities. With the Education Reform he is currently proposing, the history curriculum will be imposed by Madrid and the Autonomous Communities will only be able to add a small portion referring to their own history. However, such additional contentswill be excluded from the final exams and therefore pupils will tend to ignorethem. With this initiative, Wert aims to impose a single interpretation of the historic facts affecting Spain’s history and nation-building. Lately, the Spanish Government, run by the People’s Party (PP), has repeatedly stated that Spain is “the oldest nation in Europe” and is now focusing on the education system to spread this idea.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.