referèndum

The Bureau of the Spanish Parliament has accepted a debate on the Catalan Parliament’s bill requesting the transfer to the Catalan Executive of the powers to organise referendums, using Article 150.2 of the Spanish Constitution. The Bureau, totally controlled by the People’s Party (PP), has not discussed the contents and has only approved requesting the Catalan Parliament to send the bill’s full dossier, the step before putting the bill on the agenda. The motion would be debated in September, although there is a chance it could be rescheduled for June. However, Catalan parties will register an identical bill at the Spanish Parliament to discuss it even earlier, probably in March. The bill was approved by the Catalan Parliament with 87 ‘yes’ votes, 43 ‘no’ votes and 3 abstentions that considered the request was slowing down self-determination.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, stated in a TV interview on Monday evening that he has “a plan” to prevent Catalonia’s self-determination and “guaranteed” that “the independence of any Spanish territory will not happen while [he is] in office”. Rajoy emphasised that his plan’s guidelines are, firstly, “implementing the law”. The Spanish PM said he is “ready for any scenario that might happen”, but refused to disclose any measure. Secondly, he would be “working on increasing the bonds that have always united the whole Catalan people and the people living in Catalonia that are not born in Catalonia with the whole Spanish people”. Thirdly, “working to solve the problems of the Spanish and Catalan economies”, as well as the funding of the Catalan Government. However, Rajoy stated he “will not call” the Catalan President, Artur Mas, despite the offers to talk.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy also said that an independent Scotland would be “out of the European Union, the United Nations and all the applicable international treaties for being part of the UK”. Regarding the Catalan Parliament’s bill to formally request the transfer of the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Executive, based on Article 150.2 of the Constitution, Rajoy has categorically rejected the idea. He stated that his stance on Catalonia’s self-determination “is clear” and “does not include nuances”. In addition, Rajoy said that he is “always open to dialogue” but that “it is impossible to talk” with Catalonia because of “a continuous process of unilateral decisions”. Furthermore, the Deputy Prime Minister insisted that a self-determination vote “cannot take place” and “goes against the Constitution”.

3 MPs of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) have voted ‘yes’ to the bill requesting the transfer of the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Government, and have thereby gone against the party’s leadership. The PSC ran in the last elections proposing a legal self-determination vote this term. But the increasing tensions with the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – to which the PSC is federated – made the party’s leadership run away from this promise. However, an important minority within the PSC is strongly against this move and continues defending Catalonia’s right to self-determination. Before this Thursday’s crucial vote at the Catalan Parliament, 6 of the PSC MPs (30% of the total) had publicly expressed their serious doubts about opposing the bill. Finally, 1 MP decided to resign from Parliament one day before the vote and 3 other MPs did not follow the party’s instructions and supported the bill.

The Catalan Parliament has approved a resolution to formally request the Spanish Parliament to transfer the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Government, following Article 150.2 of the Constitution. This mechanism will allow the Catalan Executive to directly call a self-determination referendum, a similar formula to the Scotland case. 87 MPs (64.4% of the Parliament) have backed the proposal and 43 MPs (31.8%) have voted against it. The 3 MPs of the radical left-wing and independence party CUP have abstained, arguing they do not think Spain has anything to say on Catalonia’s self-determination. Furthermore, 3 MPs from the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) have also backed the text, breaking the party leadership’s instructions. This vote is a true earthquake for the PSC, which might eventually split up.

The Mayor of Lleida, Angel Ros, announced he was quitting the Catalan Parliament since he rejects voting against self-determination on Thursday, as imposed by the leadership of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC). 4 other MPs might break from the party lines as well and a 6^th one - who had expressed serious doubts - finally announced he would follow the leadership instructions. They represent 30% of the PSC MPs, so their ‘rebellion’ is far from being an anecdote. In fact, the party leadership warned them they might even end up being expelled if they were breaking the ranks on this crucial vote. On Thursday, the Catalan Parliament will vote on an initiative asking the Spanish Parliament to transfer the powers to organise a referendum to the Catalan Government, following Article 150.2 of the Spanish Constitution. This formula – similar to the one used in Scotland – would enable the organisation of a legal self-determination referendum in Catalonia, something the PSC explicitly promised in the last elections but is now rejecting.

The Catalan Government accuses Madrid of continued “prejudices” since “appealing against” a measure “the very next minute” after it is announced “does not leave time to fully analyse it” and therefore “does not respect the rule of law”. A majority of Catalan parties is proposing a self-determination vote for the 9^th of November in accordance with the legal framework. There are 5 different ways to legally organise such a vote according to Constitutional experts. However, the Spanish Government is insisting that such a vote is illegal. The Spanish Justice Minister, Alberto Ruiz Gallardón stated on Tuesday: “if Mas [the Catalan President] signs a decree calling the consultation vote instead of [only] resigning himself to giving a statement, the very next minute, this decree will be taken to the Constitutional Court”. Furthermore, he added that “there is no doubt” that the vote “will be suspended” by the Court.

The Catalan Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, has ironically stated that the situation in Catalonia “must be the most international of political domestic issues in the wide world”, if the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy is talking about it before the US President. Homs exclaimed: “every time, people say it is an internal issue and that it would be a mistake to treat it internationally, but Rajoy cannot stop talking about it in his public appearances”. Homs praised the international community for their silence on the Catalan issue, as they have likely been “pressured” by Spain to voice their disapproval. However, he did not directly refer to Barack Obama, who had avoided commenting on Catalonia’s potential independence at the White House press conference on Monday evening.

Next to the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (who went to the White House), the President of the United States, Barack Obama, did not talk about Catalonia despite being asked about it directly by a journalist. Obama did not repeat the formula expressed by other international leaders – it is Spain’s internal matter – but instead preferred to avoid the issue. He did not explicitly back the Spanish PM, despite the fact that Rajoy had stated, only a few minutes earlier, that “Catalonia’s independence will not happen”. Rajoy’s meeting with Obama and the following press conference at the White House were also controversial because the Spanish Government banned several media that were covering the trip and only allowed one Catalan newspaper to attend it.

The Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, sent a letter to the President of the Spanish Parliament, Jesús Posada, asking him to create “a parliamentary body to talk about the renovation of the territorial model”. This was one of the conclusions of last week’s meeting between Rubalcaba and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is part of the PSOE. The final objective is to push for a broad Constitutional reform to create a true federal Spain and better fit Catalonia, providing an alternative from the current status quo or independence. However, the initiative faces a negative answer from the People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government and holds an absolute majority in the Parliament and Senate.

Artur Mas, President of the Catalan Government, signed an article published in New Europe’s special edition ‘Our world in 2014’, explaining why Catalans want to hold a self-determination vote on the 9^th of November, 2014. The European section of the publication includes articles from the French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, the Italian PM Enrico Letta, the UK Finance Minister George Osborne and two EU Commissioners, Neelie Kroes and Androulla Vassilliou, among others. In his article, Mas asked the Spanish Government to “abide by its professed democratic principles and to allow the referendum”. The Catalan President explained why a majority of Catalans are supporting independence from Spain due to historical, political, economic, cultural and identity-related reasons. “In twenty-first century Europe, we solve these disputes peacefully and democratically, with ballot boxes and votes” he stated.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s refusal to negotiate and allow the Catalans a consultation vote on independence “undermines the legitimacy of the Spanish political system” and is a violation of Catalonia’s democratic “right to express its own voice”. Such is the conclusion of Huw Evans, Law Professor at the Cardiff Metropolitan University. In a report entitled Law and Legitimacy: The denial of the Catalan voice, published by the Brussels think tank Centre Maurits Coppieters, Evans argues that Rajoy could authorise a referendum without breaching the Constitution. He states that Madrid’s current attitude “restricts (and, also […] denies) the right of the Catalan people to democratically pursue” independence.

Antoni Abad, the Chairman of the Terrassa-based employer’s association Cecot, forecasts “a small growth” of Catalonia’s GDP in 2014. However, Abad also warned against “the fragility” of the current situation since economic recovery is just starting and indicators are posting positive data but still with manifold limitations. When asked about the possible consequences of the political situation in Spain, Abad insisted the Cecot members “are not afraid” of the self-determination consultation vote. He reminded Spain that consultations are “structural elements” of democratic life, adding he was hoping for “rationality” and “dialogue” to impose themselves in the political sphere. Abad also denied the words of the Spanish Minister for Home Affairs, Jorge Fernandez Diaz, stating that the independence issue had not created any “conflicts” in Catalan families.

The former Chief of Staff of the French Minister for European Affairs and current member of the Conseil d’État, Yves Gounin, argues that the independence of Catalonia, Scotland or Flanders would not cause their immediate expulsion from the European Union but neither would it result in their automatic inclusion. Gounin states that a political negotiation should be undertaken; it would be “the most realistic” approach, he says. Therefore, according to this study published in the journal Politique Étrangère, independence and EU membership should be negotiated at the same time and therefore the implementation of EU Treaties would not be interrupted at any moment. Gounin underlines that there are legal and political arguments to defend that an independent Catalonia or Scotland would not be expelled from the EU. It is in “everybody’s” interest, he highlighted.

The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Durao Barroso, has responded to the letter sent in December by Artur Mas, the President of the Catalan Government. Mas had informed Barroso and the leaders of the EU Member States about Catalonia’s self-determination process and the recent agreement to organise a consultation vote on the 9^th of November. The Commission President “thanked” Mas for his letter and the information about “the latest political developments in Catalonia”. However, he rejected issuing further comments “on a question of internal organisation related to the constitutional arrangements in the Member States”. Furthermore, concerning Catalonia’s EU Membership, Barroso “recalls the position […] expressed on several occasions”.