recovery

The Catalan economy’s indicators are posting positive figures and the research department of the BBVA bank has reviewed its growth forecast for Catalonia for the current and the next years. According to the report issued on Thursday by the BBVA, the Catalan economy will grow by 1.3% in 2014 and by 1.8% in 2015, which are higher rates than those initially predicted. On top of this, 140,000 new jobs will be created in those two years, which represents a 4.3% employment growth. In addition, it puts an end to the negative trend that destroyed 17.3% of the existing jobs between 2008 and 2013. The BBVA also praises “the very significant effort” made by the Catalan Government to reduce public deficit in the last few years, although they will not be enough to meet the strict deficit objectives for 2014 and 2015, unilaterally imposed by the Spanish Government.

According to figures from the Spanish Institute of Statistics, prices in Catalonia have risen from -0.3% in Octoeber 2013 to an annual inflation rate of 0.1% in October this year, the same as that of September. Inflation has been kept low by falling prices of electricity, while the rising cost of fresh food has prevented negative inflation. In Spain, prices have risen from a -0.6% annual inflation registered 12 months ago to a negative inflation of -0.1%, accumulating four consecutive months of negative rates. The prices of fresh food and non-alcoholic beverages influenced the most the annual price increase in Catalonia, and thus offset the low performance in other sectors that are contributing to keep annual inflation close to zero in Catalonia, and in the negative for the last four months in the whole of Spain.

According to official data released by the Catalan Ministry of Economics and the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat), the Catalan economy grew by 0.5% between and July and September 2014, the latest in six consecutive quarters of positive economic growth. A signal that the recession is far left behind. The whole of Spain also grew by 0.5% in the same 3 months. In annual terms, Catalonia's GDP has grown by 1.8%, mainly thanks to the boost by the services sector,which has demonstrated an annual growth of 2.4%. The sector of industry grew by 1.5% and those of construction and agriculture decreased by -2.6% and -1% respectively. Idescat’s previous predictions for 2014 quarters has been reviewed: the 0.5% initially estimated for the first quarter increased to 0.7%, while the 0.6% for the second quarter dropped to 0.5%.

Figures released by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce on Monday showed that the economy of Catalonia is set to grow by 1.6% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015. The Chamber also predicted that by 2015, there will be a 2% rise in Spain’s GDP and 1.4% in that of the Eurozone countries average. According to the President of the Chamber, Miquel Valls, the recovery of Catalan and Spanish economies is "solid", but he stressed that the "austerity in wages" must be maintained. This report comes after the success of all Catalan banks passing the stress tests issued by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank, which 25 banks across Europe failed. Related economic news is that the unemployment figures released for third quarter of 2014 set Catalonia’s rate at 19.1% and Spain’s at 23.67%.

Spain's unemployment rate at the end of the third quarter stands at 23.67%, according to the latest Active Population Survey (EPA). The unemployment rate for Catalonia has fallen below 20% for the first time in the last 3 years and is set at 19.10%. The number of unemployed people in Catalonia has dropped by 44,400 in the third quarter of 2014, a decrease of 5.76% compared to the previous quarter. This is the biggest reduction since at least 2002, when the Spain's Statistical Institute began the series. Thanks to the creation of 69,100 new jobs in Catalonia over the last 12 months, there are now 34,800 more people employed in the third quarter. This makes Catalonia have the second highest unemployment drop in Spain, second only to Madrid Region (-48,200 people). The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, has called the figures are "encouraging" and "hopeful", although a 19.1% rate is still "very high".

Pimec and Foment, Catalonia’s largest employers’ associations, have expressed outrage at the Spanish Government’s budget proposal for 2015 and its planned investment in Catalonia. Both Foment, which groups the largest employers, and Pimec, who represents small and medium-sized enterprises, have criticised that the Spanish Government has allocated to Catalonia only 9.5% of Spain’s total investment, despite it contributing 19% of the country's GDP and having 16% of its population. Spokespersons for both organisations have said the shockingly low budget is at odds with Catalonia’s high productivity and represents "a missed opportunity", both for economic growth and political dialogue, considering the independence debate. According to Ramon Adell, from Foment, Catalonia "as the engine of recovery, deserves a greater investment in infrastructure."

In 2015, Catalonia will receive the lowest investment from the Spanish Government in the last 17 years, in relative terms. The Executive chaired by Mariano Rajoy will only spend 9.5% of the territorial investments in Catalonia, despite the fact that the Autonomous Community accounts for 19% of Spain's GDP and 16% of the country's population. The percentage is even lower than last year's, when Rajoy allocated 9.6% of the territorial investments to Catalonia, which leads Spain's economy. In the current political climate, when the relation between Catalonia and Spain is seriously questioned by a majority of Catalans, such figures are far from supporting the "better together" way.

Catalonia’s GDP recorded an annual increase of 1.4% in the second quarter of 2014, the best result since September 2008, according to official figures published on Friday by the Catalan Institute of Statistics (IDESCAT). The 1.8% increase in domestic demand means that the annual rate of Catalonia’s GDP is higher than Spain's average, and more than that of the European Union (EU28), both located at 1.2%. Not only is Government spending showing a favourable trend, but there has also been growth in the services sector, and those of industry and agriculture. From September 2014, the EU has set mandatory implementation of the new European System of Accounts (ESA 2010), which IDESCAT plans to have in place to coincide with the results of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Last July, Catalonia broke its export record ever achieved in a single month, reaching €5.67 billion. This marked a 6.9% growth from the same month in 2013. Furthermore, Catalan sales abroad reached another record high in the period between January and July of 2014, at €35.44 billion, an increase of 2.6% from last year's same period. Meanwhile, exports have increased throughout the rest of Spain by 1.3% between January and July in their 2013 figures. Nowhere is the export growth faster than in Catalonia, which counts for 25.2% of Spain's total.

The left-wing independence party ERC asked the Catalan President to join the Government "in order to protect the [self-determination] consultation vote" scheduled on the 9^th of November. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that they will talk about it in the coming days to strengthen the unity around November's vote. In addition, the Catalan Socialist party (PSC) also asked Mas to talk to them if the Constitutional Court ultimately bans the consultation vote. The People's Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, accused Mas of promoting "a soft dictatorship" in Catalonia. The green-socialist and post-communist coalition ICV stated they want a consultation vote with "credibility". The Spanish nationalist and populist C's said that Mas' time is finished and asked for early elections. Finally, the alternative left and radical independence party CUP advocated ignoring Spain's institutions and voting on the 9^th of November by any means.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated that his "full commitment" is to make sure that Catalans can vote on the 9^th of November self-determination consultation "with full democratic guarantees". In his opening speech at the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, Mas emphasised that his will is to make use of his entire term in office, which ends in November 2016, but only "if it is possible". He hinted that early elections could be called if November's vote could not be carried out with "enough democratic guarantees". In addition, Mas stressed the Government's "unequivocal commitment" to eradicate corruption. He also underlined that the Catalan economy is starting to recover from the economic crisis, leading Spain's recovery. However, he warned of the weak situation of public finances and of Catalonia's self-government because of Madrid's recentralisation and unilateral actions.

The day before the massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, once again rejected Catalonia's right to self-determination. Furthemore, Rajoy stated that a self-determination consultation vote or a unilateral declaration of independence would generate "a political problem and difficulties in the markets". Rajoy was answering to an MP from the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Josep Sánchez-Llibre. The Catalan MP stated that "what really threatens the [economic] recovery is that, in front of Catalonia's demands, [the Spanish Government] has not even issued half of a political answer that can allow the markets to believe in an agreement and not in it being on a collision course".

The value of homes in Catalonia increased by 1.6% during the second quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2013, according to the House Price Index of the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). In relation to the first quarter of this year, prices registered a 1.8% increase between March and June, whilst cumulatively over this year there was a 1.3% increase in property value in Catalonia. However, the prices of new flats rose by 8.7%, whilst second hand properties only saw a 0.1% growth in their value. In Spain as a whole, the House Price Index reached a 0.8% rate in annual terms, the first time this has happened at Spanish level since March 2008. 

The real estate market has stopped its downward trend and has started its recovery in Spain. Housing prices already registered an increase in September of 2013 in quarterly terms, but now the prices grew for the first time in annual terms, a phenomenon not registered for the last 6 years. By the end of June 2014, prices grew by 0.97% compared to June 2013. In quarterly terms, housing prices increased by 1.53% compared to March 2014. Since the start of the economic crisis in 2008, housing prices have plummeted an average of 32% throughout Spain, with prices equivalent to those registered in 2003. In the second quarter of 2014, Catalonia was the Autonomous Community with the second highest number of housing sales, registering 11,980 operations.

The Catalan economy grew by 1.3% from July 2013 to June 2014. However, the economic recovery has particularly sped up and got stronger over the second quarter of 2014, when it grew by 0.6% in quarterly terms, according to data released on Wednesday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The GDP growth between April and June was higher than the one registered during the first quarter of the year, set at 0.4%. With the 0.6% registered at the end of June, Catalonia has achieved 5 consecutive quarters of posting positive figures, leaving the recession more than a year behind. Regarding economic sectors, services have led the economic recovery, posting a 1.8% annual growth at the end of the first half of 2014.