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''The recovery has come and has come to stay,'' according to Salvador Guillermo, Director of the Economy of Catalonia's main association of business-owners, Foment del Treball. Guillermo, who coordinated the report published on Tuesday, said that the analysis of economic data confirms that the positive trends have been occurring a month earlier in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain, "which means that recovery is more entrenched'' in Catalonia. The agents of this recovery are internal demand (consumption and investment) and the fast pace of exports in Catalonia.

The so-called Consumer Price Index (IPC) – which represents the inflation rate – in May stood at 0.5% in Catalonia in annual terms. In April, it stood at 0.7% according to figures published on Friday by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). Across the whole of Spain, inflation increased by 0.2% in May, while in April a 0.4% inflation rate was recorded, the IPC data confirms.  Core inflation – which does not take into account the prices of energy and unprocessed food –  fell from 0.3% in April to 0.0% in May. The product groups that had a greater impact on May's IPC were food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.8%), recreation and culture (-1.1%) and hotels, cafes and restaurants (+0.5%).

Throughout this week the Fira de Barcelona's Montjuic exhibition venue in the Catalan capital is transformed into a business fair for start-ups and entrepreneurs. The BizBarcelona event takes place on Wednesday the 4^th and Thursday the 5^th of June and is the second edition of this innovative business fair. The event serves several purposes and contains as many as six different areas including e-commerce, the financial markets, exports, franchises, business consulting as well as cooperation and networking. The event offers various opportunities for established and future entrepreneurs. BizBarcelona is a welcome initiative. First quarter financial reports revealed a decrease in bankruptcy proceedings, and with a high unemployment rate in Catalonia and Spain it is hoped that these new companies can create jobs.

Registered unemployment in Catalonia has dropped to 592,304 people at the end of May 2014: the first time the figure has fallen below the 600,000 mark since August 2011. According to figures released by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security, between May 2013 and May 2014, registered unemployment dropped by 7.76 %, a reduction of 49,862 people. In only one month, unemployment decreased by 19,518 people from April to May, a 3.19 % drop. This has been the greatest monthly decrease recorded in May for 18 years. Furthermore, Catalonia has also experienced the greatest fall in unemployment of any Autonomous Community in Spain this last May, followed by the Region of Madrid.

In April, 12,645 jobseekers left the Catalan Public Employment Service's lists, which is the sharpest unemployment reduction for an April month since 1998. At the end of April there were 611,822 people registered as unemployed in Catalonia, a 2% drop on March figures and a 6.88% reduction compared to April 2013. This 6.88% annual drop is also the sharpest since June 2000. Furthermore, in annual terms, registered unemployment has been decreasing in Catalonia for the last 10 consecutive months, although April is traditionally a good month for employment due to the new contracts linked to Easter holidays. In the whole of Spain, registered unemployment decreased by 111,565, representing a 2.33% drop and leaving the total number of registered jobseekers at 4,684,301. In annual terms, it dropped by 6.11%, being the 7^th consecutive month with annual reductions.

At the end of March there were 840,200 unemployed people in Catalonia, 600 more than in December. This quarterly increase breaks the trend of 3 consecutive quarters with unemployment drops in Catalonia and puts the unemployment rate at 22.10%. However, in annual terms, Catalan unemployment was reduced by 108,800 on March 2013 figures, when the rate reached 24.45%. Unemployment has not decreased in annual terms in the first quarter of the year since 2007. The most negative news is the number of jobs lost between January and March 2014. In the first quarter of the year, 38,100 jobs were lost in Catalonia, 10,000 more than in the same period of 2013. In the whole of Spain, 184,600 jobs were lost between January and March 2014 and the unemployment rate reached 25.93%.

At the end of March 2014 there were 39,583 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia than twelve month earlier, which represents a 5.96% drop. It is the sharpest drop since June 2000. In addition, registered unemployment in Catalonia has been decreasing in annual terms for the last 9 consecutive months. On top of this, it is the third consecutive unemployment decline registered in a month of March. After this drop, the total number of people registered as unemployed at the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) was 624,467 people. In monthly terms, there were 5,119 fewer jobseekers at the end of March than in February. The fall in monthly terms is the sharpest registered in this month of the year since March 2005, before the economic crisis.

The largest employer’s association in Catalonia, Foment del Treball, expects that the economic recovery in both Catalonia and the whole of Spain will not lead to a growth in employment and consumption until late 2014 or early 2015, as explained in the Report on the Economic Situation published on Thursday. The Director of Foment’s Economics and Taxation Department, Salvador Guillermo, said in a press conference that the economic recovery is being “consolidated”. Nevertheless, he added that ongoing structural reforms in the energy sector, public administration or the financial system should continue. According to Guillermo, the reduction of public deficit must be slowed down in order to avoid any negative impact on the economic recovery. 

In February, 629,586 people were enrolled on the unemployment lists in Catalonia, representing a decrease of 4,285 unemployed people on the same month last year, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Employment and Social Security Ministry. It is also the sharpest decline for a month of February since 2004, when 5,138 fewer jobseekers were registered. With this latest drop in the unemployment figures, Catalonia has achieved eight consecutive months of registered unemployment reduction in annual terms. In the whole of Spain, unemployment stood at 4,812,486 people, down by 1,949 people in February. It is the first decrease for the month of February since the beginning of the crisis in 2007.

The President of Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, stated on Thursday that the independence process was not affecting Catalonia’s economic recovery. During a press conference, Valls emphasised that such a statement was based on concrete “facts”. He stressed that Catalonia had tripled the amount of incoming foreign investment compared to the Spanish average, and that the Catalan economy had also registered better figures in enterprise creation and business confidence, employment and other indicators showing an economic recovery According to the report on conjecture and economic perspectives, the Catalan GDP grew by 0.7% during the fourth quarter of 2013, whereas the Spanish GDP dropped by 0.1%. Valls also recalled that the consultation vote on the political future of Catalonia would involve “citizens and not businesses”, thus responding to the employers who recently voiced their opposition to Catalonia’s independence.

In annual terms, there were 27,946 less registered unemployed people in January 2014 than in January 2013, meaning a 4.22 % drop. Seven consecutive months of decreases in the registered unemployed figures had not been achieved since June 2007. Besides, in monthly terms, the latest figures also show a positive trend. Indeed, January is traditionally a month where unemployment increases, with the only drop recorded since 1997, the beginning of the series, dating back to January 1998. In January 2014, unemployment grew by 8,999 people compared to December 2013, the mildest increase registered in that month since 2007. Referring to these latest figures, the Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that he was “moderately optimistic”.

The Catalan business community is deeply annoyed with the Spanish Government for not publishing transparent data on Catalonia’s fiscal contribution to the rest of Spain and therefore not recognising the fiscal deficit. The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, was supposed to issue the so-called fiscal balances last December but their publication was inexplicably delayed. Last Friday, in late January, Montoro announced the fiscal balances would no longer be calculated and published in the present form; instead, he would publish in March the “regionalised public figures” stating the costs of public services per citizen because the fiscal balances were “incomplete and incoherent”. However, on Tuesday, the Minister recognised that they were “correct” but “wrongly used” to support Catalan independence claims.

Catalonia ended 2013 with an unemployment rate of 22.26% and a total of 820,400 people unemployed, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA) for the fourth quarter. In late 2013 Catalonia registered 64,700 fewer unemployed people compared to the last quarter of 2012. At Spanish level, the unemployment rate was set at 26.03 %, with a total of 5,896,300 unemployed people. At the end of 2013, there were 69,100 fewer unemployed than in the last quarter of 2012. Furthermore, between September and December there were 8,400 fewer jobseekers in Spain. In the same 3-month period there were 20,100 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia. The Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that these figures were “the best since the start of the crisis” since “for the first time, the number of employed has increased and the number of unemployed has decreased”.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

By the end of December, Catalonia registered a 0.2% annual inflation rate, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). This figure is the lowest recorded in Catalonia at the end of the year since December 1978, when the INE started providing figures for each of the Autonomous Communities. In the whole of Spain, prices ended 2013 posting an annual inflation rate of 0.3%, the lowest registered on a month of December since 1961; the very year such figures started being released. However, these are not the lowest annual inflation rates, since the record was set in July 2009, with a -0.9% annual rate in Catalonia. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.2% in December in Catalonia on November figures and by 0.1% in the whole of Spain. The price increase was mostly due to the growth in oil prices, while leisure, culture and clothing helped minimising the general increase.