psc

Catalonia and the Basque Country might be the only Autonomous Communities in Spain without a victory for the People’s Party (PP). The Socialists are likely to win once again in Catalonia, but they risk loosing 40% of their seats. If they slump even further then they risk being overtaken by the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) or even the PP. A quiet electoral campaign has come to an end, with three main unknown answers: if the Socialist party will get its worst results over the past few decades, if they will also lose in their stronghold of Catalonia, and how the international financial markets will react in the coming days.

In Catalonia, the PP would get its best results in history, and could become the second most voted party in the territory, a position disputed with the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU). The Socialist Party, which has won the Spanish elections in Catalonia for the last 32 years, might still win, but it will be a close battle with the CiU and the PP. A major surprise in Catalonia cannot be completely ruled out. In any case, on the contrary to previous elections and as it seemed some weeks ago, votes in Catalonia might not change the final results and the PP’s absolute majority would not depend on its Catalan supports.

Next November 20th, Spaniards will vote for the new Spanish Parliament. They will elect one of the lists running in their province, which is their constituency. Catalans will thus elect the lists running in the four Catalan provinces. Therefore, they will not directly elect Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (PSOE) or Mariano Rajoy (PP), but their party candidates in Catalonia, as well as parties only running in Catalonia, such as the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) or the Catalan Green Socialist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

According to polls, Catalonia might be essential to ensure the absolute majority to the People’s Party (PP) or to save the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) from getting its worst results ever. The Socialists risk loosing more than a third of its seats in Catalonia while the PP, far from winning in Catalonia, could get its best results. Catalan nationalists ‘Convergència i Unió’, who are the third largest group in the Spanish Parliament, could win the elections in Catalonia, ending the ten Socialist Party victories in a row in these elections.

Catalonia has a different political landscape than the rest of Spain, and it is where the People’s Party (PP) always gets its worst results. Polls indicate that in the next Spanish elections, the People’s Party will be very far from winning in Catalonia but it could get its best results winning between 12 and 14 seats. Looking to ensure an absolute majority in Spain, the PP’s leader Mariano Rajoy plans to better the party’s results in Catalonia and therefore decided to start the official campaign in a town from Barcelona Metropolitan Area.

The President of the Catalan Government, from the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist coalition CiU considered the statement “an important step” and stressed that they “are hoping for the terrorist group's total break up and the total abandonment of its weapons”. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party, ERC, asked the Spanish Government to quit its “ivory tower”, “as the United Kingdom did”, and “let the Basque and the Catalan peoples decide their future”. However, the Catalan Association of Terrorist Victims has criticised ETA’s announcement and said that it only hopes for ETA’s disappearance, but other individual victims have celebrated the news. ETA has killed more than 800 people, 50 of them in Catalonia.

The Debate on the State of the Nation ended at the Catalan Parliament with the approval of several resolutions. After three days of debate, the resolutions were voted on Friday. One of them condemns the way in which the Spanish Constitution amendment was negotiated and passed, as it did not take into account parties that participated in the Constitution drafting and approval, and it also interferes with the financial autonomy of Catalonia. Another motion demands the Catalan Government to present the budget for 2012 before October 10th next.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) decides not to break the Socialists’ unity and not to force a call for a binding referendum on the constitutional amendment. In addition, the PSC rejects the request of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) to include within the Constitution a limitation not only the public deficit but also a limitation on inter-regional fiscal redistribution. Moreover, the CiU stated that it has been excluded from the Constitution’s modification and therefore the Constitutional consensus is now broken.

A similar change happened in Girona Town Hall, where Carles Puigdemont, also from CiU, also became the first non-Socialist Mayor in the last 32 years, since the restoration of democracy. Barcelona and Girona Town Halls were constituted later than all the rest because of appeals regarding the electoral vote and the number of elected councillors. These two Mayoral offices consolidate CiU’s hegemony in Catalonia, after last May's municipal elections and after last November's Catalan Parliament elections.

After the presentation of the Catalan Government’s budget proposal at the Catalan Parliament, opposition parties criticised its content and the lack of debate on the subject. The Catalan Government needs support from opposition MPs or at least their abstention to approve the budget, which foresees a 2.66% deficit for 2011. The Spanish Vice President for Economy Elena Salgado insists that the mechanisms of deficit control “will be strictly implemented”.

The good results at the municipal elections give the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition ‘Convergència i Unió’ (CiU), running the Government, the support of citizens to carry on with the austerity measures and its plan to reduce public expenditure by 10%. After the Government’s approval, the budget will be discussed at the Catalan Parliament and approved by the end of July. CiU does not want to mix budget negotiations at the Parliament with local agreements after the municipal elections.

'Convergència i Unió' (CiU) increases its vote share across Catalonia and becomes the leading party in number of votes. The large victory backs the Catalan Government’s controversial austerity measures. The Catalan Government and Barcelona City Council will be run by the same party, CiU. The Catalan Socialist Party loses large cities and 22% of its votes across the country. The People’s Party becomes the third party and wins in Badalona with a discourse focused on illegal immigration. ERC loses around a third of its votes but other pro Catalan independence parties gain support. The xenophobic and extreme right PxC remains marginal but increases its base and enters the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. The turnout was 55%, one point higher than in 2007. The null or spoilt vote multiplied its share by three but remains marginal.

The Spanish Government risked losing an important vote at the Parliament if members of the Catalan Socialists had voted the same they did in the Senate. However, they voted together with the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE). By obliging the PSC to choose between its vote coherence and its loyalty to the PSOE, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition CiU dislocated the PSC in the middle of the municipal election campaign. The rejected motion had asked the Spanish Government to reconsider its stance and pay the Competitiveness Fund’s 1.45 billion euros in 2011.

In the last elections, the elimination of the tax was one of the main promises of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition, Convergència i Unió (CiU), which controls the Catalan Government. From January 1st 2011, first and second degree relatives will have a 99% bonus on this tax. The decision has been taken in the middle of the debate about public expenditure cuts.

Artur Mas hired one of his former political adversaries for the top position at the Ministry of Culture. Ferran Mascarell also held this position in 2006, in the left-wing government coalition. Now, he comes back with a centre-right executive. Mascarell has extensive experience in cultural management, in the public and private sectors. He had a successful career in the Barcelona City Council and he was recently on the board of the RBA Editorial House, in charge of audiovisual products.