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An independent Catalonia would benefit from transition measures that would guarantee the continuity of European Union agreements, thus staying within the Schengen Area and the Euro Zone. This is the most likely scenario in the event of independence, according to the Catalan Government's Advisory Council for the National Transition (CATN), which is a body formed of independent and prestigious academics. The CATN is issuing a series of reports on different aspects related to a hypothetical independent Catalan state. This expert group emphasises that there is "no legal basis" to conclude that Catalonia would be automatically expelled from the EU the moment it became independent, or to state that it would automatically join the Union as a new Member State. There is no provision in the Treaties and there are no precedents. The report concludes that Catalonia's EU membership will be decided in a negotiation process where political and economic interests will be at play.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry has drafted a new report on the consequences of an independent Catalonia, which predicts a 20% drop of the Catalan GDP. According to ‘El Periódico’ newspaper, the document - which will be sent to embassies throughout the world - foresees a fall in exports towards Europe and Spain, a decrease in foreign investments, a flight of talent, less tourism revenues because of the “lack of a common currency”, and a soar in Catalan debt which would reach 78.4% of the Catalan GDP since it would have to assume 18.9% of the Spanish Government's debt. The Catalan Minister for the Presidency and Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, said the report was merely “speculative”, adding that the Spanish Ministry was actually “campaigning” against self-determination. The Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs has asked Catalan authorities to back such claims with “empirical evidence”.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, stated that a unilateral declaration of independence would condemn Catalonia "to roam across space" and that it would be "excluded from the European Union for the centuries of the centuries". García-Margallo, who is one of the most vocal members of the Spanish Executive against Catalonia's independence, stated that such a scenario is "a high risk operation". He criticised the politicians supporting independence, who "put at risk a population that is essentially European", which goes against the will of a majority of Catalans "who want to be part of the European area". "Secession is extremely harmful for Spain but particularly harmful for Catalonia", he insisted. On the same day, the Candidate of the Greens to chair the European Commission, German Ska Keller, stated she was supporting Catalonia's right to self-determination.

The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy disclosed on Tuesday evening that the Spanish Deputy Minister for EU Affairs, Iñigo Méndez de Vigo had travelled to Barcelona on Sunday “to talk with” Viviane Reding and tell her “what is going on in this country”. Méndez de Vigo’s trip was decided after the European Commission Vice President had publicly called on Catalan and Spanish authorities to negotiate “without red-lines” to solve the conflict. Rajoy also said that he had spoken about Catalonia with the European Commission President, José Manuel Barroso, “and many other political leaders”. The Catalan Government’s Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, ironically stated that  the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry is putting “so much pressure […] for us not to be received anywhere [to talk about self-determination] that in the end [this attitude] opens doors for us”.

The Spanish Government replies that dialogue can only take place “within the law” and respecting “the national sovereignty”, “two red-lines” that cannot be questioned. The Catalan Government said the Commission should consider Catalonia as “a very good ally to build Europe’s future”. The day before, in Barcelona, Viviane Reding, European Commissioner for Justice, had asked the Spanish and Catalan authorities “to talk” with “an open attitude” and “without red-lines” in order to remain “united”. The European Commission broke its supposed neutrality in the political conflict regarding Catalonia’s future within Spain, despite it officially considers the issue to be Spain’s internal affair. The Commissioner for Justice, Citizenship and Fundamental Rights acknowledged “to understand” the Catalan claims, but she refused to say whether citizens should be allowed to hold a self-determination vote. However, she stated that if independence was declared, Catalonia would no longer be part of the EU.

The Catalan Executive, chaired by Artur Mas, has published a 50-page memorandum in reply to the report issued by the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, in late December against Catalan independence. Margallo’s document claimed that independence was “immoral” and “not a democratic option”. The 200-page report was distributed to all Spain’s embassies as a list of arguments to be used to lobby against Catalan independence at international level. The memo was written in a condescending tone and included many judgemental opinions, half-truths, partial quotes and even lies. One of them was that Catalonia recovered its self-government institutions thanks to the Constitution, which is false. The Catalan Government has replied with its own memo and has asked the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry to distribute it to all the embassies as well.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, said that Spain could “consider” the admission of an independent Scotland within the EU. In a front-page article published this Monday in the Financial Times, Margallo argued that if the Scottish people gained independence through a “legal” process, Spain would not interfere. However, the Minister warned that the Scots would have to “join the waiting line and ask for admission” to enter the EU. The article underlined that “Margallo’s nuanced stance towards Scotland stood in marked contrast to his uncompromising rhetoric on Catalonia”, “two fundamentally different” cases according to him. The President of the Catalan People’s Party – Margallo’s party - reacted to the interview and stated that his words had been misinterpreted: Spain would assess Scotland’s admission but would not approve it.

Two Spanish Ministers have sent two warning messages on the same day. On the one hand, the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, announced “a 25% or 30%” of “immediate” loss of wealth for an independent Catalonia “according to several studies”, which have not been mentioned by name. Margallo warned Catalans about the “harmful and lethal consequences” that independence would bring. He also stated that the self-determination process can also cause “an employment loss” since it is hurting Spain’s external image. On the other hand, the Spanish Justice Minister, Alberto Ruíz Gallardón, guaranteed that “Spain has the necessary tools to defend […] the national sovereignty, which is in the hands of its citizens as a whole”. Furthermore, Gallardón emphasised that “Spain is a great nation that is worth living in and loving, and which is worth fighting for”.

The Spanish Minister for Foreign Affairs, José Manuel García-Margallo, has stated that the Spanish Government's position regarding the independence of Scotland and its inclusion in the EU will depend on the British Government. The “crucial” point will be whether London considers the process to be legal or not. This statement was made after a Catalan MP accused the Spanish Government of being “allergic to ballot boxes”. Indeed, the Spanish Prime Minister had expressed quite a different opinion on the subject, in November. He had stated that if Scotland and Catalonia became independent, they would be excluded from the EU, and would have to re-apply for membership, also suggesting a possible veto from Madrid.

With the title ‘Spain against Catalonia: an historical overview (1714-2014)’, this academic symposium aims to discuss the political, economic, social and cultural repression the Spanish State has carried out against Catalan institutions and people throughout the last 300 years. The event will offer more than 20 lectures given by prestigious university chairs. It is organised by Catalonia’s Science and Language Academy (IEC) and by the Centre of Contemporary History of Catalonia, which is linked to the Catalan Government. The symposium has raised controversy with its title. The People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, has made cancelling the event a condition for holding a dialogue with the Catalan Executive. Furthermore, the PP, the anti-Catalan nationalism Ciutadans (C’s) and the Spanish nationalist and populist UPyD have filed a complaint against the symposium for “spreading hate”. Paradoxically, UPyD compared the symposium with “Nazism”.

The tension between the Spanish and the Catalan Executives is increasing. The Spanish Government refused to allow the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, to deliver a short welcoming speech to the participants of the First Economic Forum of the Western Mediterranean. This event will take place in Barcelona on Wednesday, within the headquarters of the Union for the Mediterranean Secretariat (UFM), a building owned by the Catalan Government. It will bring together 10 Ministers of Foreign Affairs and it will be part of the 5+5 Dialogue, which is formed by 5 EU Member States and 5 North African countries. The Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, will chair the meeting and he only allowed Mas to come as a part of his delegation, Mas will be permitted to join the meeting but not to speak. In similar meetings, presidents of other Spanish Autonomous Communities, including Catalonia, have been allowed to address participants.

In two exclusive interviews with the Catalan News Agency, the Prime Ministers of Latvia and Lithuania answered questions on Catalonia’s independence and self-determination process. The statements were badly received by the Spanish Government. The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister summoned the Latvian and Lithuanian ambassadors in Madrid and met with them on Monday morning. Despite the video showing how the Lithuanian PM literally stated “each country has to find its own way” and “has the right to self-determination” referring to Catalonia, the country’s Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a note stating that the press had offered a “biased and wrong interpretation”. Additionally, Latvia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry also issued a note saying the interpretation was “biased”. However, at the same time, a Spokesperson of the Latvian PM stated he had nothing “to take back” from the interview, in which he was asked about recognising an independent Catalonia and stated “if there is legitimacy in their process, then I would say, theoretically, 'why not?'”.

In an exclusive interview with the CNA, the Prime Minister of Latvia, Valdis Dombrovskis, was asked if his country would recognise an independent Catalonia. Dombrovskis answered: “if there is legitimacy in their process, then I would say, theoretically, 'why not?'”, opening the door to  recognition. The statement has been badly received in Madrid and the Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García Margallo, requested an urgent meeting with Latvia’s Ambassador in Madrid in order to clarify the issue. The Spanish Deputy Minister for the European Union, Iñigo Méndez de Vigo, will also be present at the meeting.

The day before the National Day of Catalonia and the ‘Catalan Way towards independence’ human chain, Spain’s Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García Margallo, stated that the Spanish Government “will never accept an agreed” self-determination referendum with Catalonia. The statement comes a few days after it was revealed that the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the Catalan President Artur Mas have been negotiating to find an agreed way to solve the current situation. He also stated that “any independence process would have to come from a unilateral declaration of independence”, which would have “catastrophic consequences” for Spain and “particularly for Catalonia”. However, Margallo added that a new territorial model and financial scheme should be negotiated to stop “the detachment” from Spain that exists in Catalonia.

The Spanish Government has presented its project to approve an External Action Law aiming to “centralise services” and to have the Autonomous Communities’ external action “coordinated and subordinated” to the principles and objectives of the Spanish Foreign Affairs Ministry. The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, has “invited” the Autonomous Communities to integrate their teams into those of the Spanish embassies. However, he also recognised that many Spanish embassies and consulates lack business services to assist companies and attract foreign investment. The Catalan Government’s offices abroad are mostly focused on these economic objectives.