gdp

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and Barcelona-based Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) think tanks, together with an Italian and a Greek research centre, have presented a report stating that the economy of an independent Catalonia would grow more in the next 15 years than if the current 'status quo' was kept. The study analyses 3 different scenarios: the current model, an agreed independence process and a unilateral declaration of independence. In either case of independence, the Catalan economy would be in better shape in the long-run than if the current framework was kept, the researchers conclude. However, in the event of a unilateral process, there may be negative economic effects in the short-term, mostly due to uncertainties related to EU Membership. Nonetheless, they consider the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme – imposed by the Spanish Government – "unsustainable at macroeconomic level" for Catalonia.

"Between 2015 and 2016 the Catalan Government will open new Trade & Investment offices in Belgrade, Tehran, Accra, Tel Aviv and Lima and enlarge its San Francisco-based one", Catalan Business Minister, Felip Puig, announced on Monday. Similarly, the Catalan Executive recently launched a new 'technological antenna' in Boston (Massachusetts) and will soon do the same in Panama, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Senegal and Angola, enlarging its network of business promotion offices abroad. The Minister said that in 2014, Catalan companies exported more than 51% of the Catalan Gross Domestic Product and the Executive is set on further enhancing their internationalisation. "Official data seem to confirm that companies with a stronger global presence suffered the economic crisis less and the Government wants to support them", he concluded.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed and improved its economic growth forecasts for Spain, going from a 2.5% growth rate for 2015 forecast in April to a 3.1% one foreseen this June, and from 2% to 2.5% for 2016. However, the IMF has also issued recommendations and warnings, emphasising that Spain will have to carry out "additional fiscal efforts" and "structural reforms" in order not to jeopardise the country’s economic recovery. The IMF recommends that Spain reduce the costs of public healthcare and education by making users pay for part of the services. According to the international organisation, Autonomous Community governments – such as Catalonia's – should have greater fiscal responsibilities in such systems since they exclusively manage them. In this vein, the IMF has praised the fiscal consolidation efforts undertaken over the past few years by regional governments and has asked for an increase in their funding and fiscal powers, as well as for the adapting of the deficit targets to their needs.

The Catalan economy has now accumulated 8 consecutive quarters of economic growth, posting a 0.9% increase in GDP between January and March, according to provisional data released on Thursday by the Catalan Finance Ministry and the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). Regarding inter-annual figures, the Catalan economy had grown by 2.4% by the end of the first quarter of 2015 compared to figures from the same period in 2014. These last figures confirm a strengthening of inter-annual growth, since last December it reached 1.9%, and an overall strengthening of the Catalan economy and its recovery from the crisis of the last years. The recovery of the internal demand and the continuing good performance of the export and tourism sectors are the main engines behind the positive figures from the first quarter of 2015. In addition, the industrial sector has been growing for the last 3 years and construction has started to grow again after almost 7 years of continuous decline.

Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce has predicted that the Catalan economy will grow by 2.7% in 2015 and 3% in 2016. The latest estimates made by the Chamber in February foresaw a growth of 2.5% in the Catalan GDP for this year. The President of the Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, said that this growth "has a lot to do with the surprising recovery of domestic demand, driven by job creation, and increased confidence in the economy." Valls also said that the depreciation of the euro and oil prices are factors that have contributed to the rise in GDP. Besides, the Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2015 according to the IMF or by 2.8% or 2.9% according to the Bank of Spain and the Spanish Government respectively.

The GDP of Catalonia increased by 1.5% during 2014, according to the definitive figures released by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) on Friday. However, on the same day, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) published its economic growth figures for 2014 and announced that the Catalan economy had grown by 1.4% last year, the same rate as Spain. In any case, both figures are quite positive after many years of economic crisis and slowdown. In fact, 2014 has been the best year since 2007, when the Catalan economy grew by 3.2% according to the Idescat. The final figure for 2014 is higher than the provisional 1.2% growth rate previously announced. Following European Union instructions, the calculations for last year include R&D activities, as well as prostitution and trafficking of drugs and tobacco.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

Another positive figure has emerged to confirm the economic recovery after years of crisis. Catalonia’s GDP grew by 1.2% over the course of 2014, which are the best figures since 2007, before the financial crisis, according to early data released on Thursday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The figure is higher than the 0.9% economic growth foreseen in the Catalan Government’s budget for 2014 (approved in late 2013) but is lower than an early forecast made in March, when a 1.5% growth was predicted. Besides this growth in the Catalan economy, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.4%, according to early data released by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Furthermore, the Catalan economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to September figures and by 1.5% in annual terms. In the first, second, and third quarters it grew by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively (in quarterly terms).

Despite a decrease in Russian visitors, Catalonia increased the number of international tourists it hosted during 2014. Some 16.7 million foreigners travelled to Catalonia last year, which sets a new historic record. In addition, it represents a 7.2% increase on 2013 figures. International visitors spent more than €15 billion during their stay, 6.1% more than in 2013. Therefore, foreign tourism accounted for some 7.5% of Catalonia’s entire GDP during 2014. Each tourist spent an average of €900 during their stay. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, presented the figures on Wednesday and emphasised that the objective for future years is not so much to increase the number of tourists but rather to increase the revenue which they bring in. 

The Catalan economy grew by 1.5% at the end of the 3^rd quarter of 2014 in annual terms, while at the end of June it was growing at a rate of 1.3%. Catalonia has therefore accumulated 4 consecutive quarters with positive annual economic growth. However, although the economic recovery has slowed somewhat, growth remains positive, as other figures show. In quarterly terms, Catalonia’s GDP increased by 0.3% between July and September, which represents a drop from the 0.5% growth registered for April – June and also for January – March. Meanwhile, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.6% in annual terms at the end of September and by 0.5% in quarterly terms. The European Union is posting the same growth rates as Catalonia: 1.5% in annual terms and 0.3% in quarterly figures.

The Catalan economy’s indicators are posting positive figures and the research department of the BBVA bank has reviewed its growth forecast for Catalonia for the current and the next years. According to the report issued on Thursday by the BBVA, the Catalan economy will grow by 1.3% in 2014 and by 1.8% in 2015, which are higher rates than those initially predicted. On top of this, 140,000 new jobs will be created in those two years, which represents a 4.3% employment growth. In addition, it puts an end to the negative trend that destroyed 17.3% of the existing jobs between 2008 and 2013. The BBVA also praises “the very significant effort” made by the Catalan Government to reduce public deficit in the last few years, although they will not be enough to meet the strict deficit objectives for 2014 and 2015, unilaterally imposed by the Spanish Government.

On Sunday the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) approved another solemn declaration proposing a Constitutional Reform, after it already did so in July 2013. Once again the PSOE has not detailed their proposal, but insists on building a true federal model, going beyond the current Autonomous Community system. The People's Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government – opposes such a reform although they "agree to talk" about it. The PSOE wants the PP to "immediately" approve the creation of a Constitutional Reform committee at the Spanish Parliament and set expert hearings to debate ideas. However, they do not want "to rush" to solve Catalonia's "urgent problem", as explained by the President of Andalusia and PSOE's Chairperson, Susana Díaz. Meanwhile, the alternative left party Podemos, which could win the next Spanish elections, has elected Pablo Iglesias as its Secretary General, who has promised a broad Constitutional Reform. Iglesias recognises Catalonia's right to self-determination but considers that the Catalan Government cannot approve a unilateral declaration of independence.

According to official data released by the Catalan Ministry of Economics and the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat), the Catalan economy grew by 0.5% between and July and September 2014, the latest in six consecutive quarters of positive economic growth. A signal that the recession is far left behind. The whole of Spain also grew by 0.5% in the same 3 months. In annual terms, Catalonia's GDP has grown by 1.8%, mainly thanks to the boost by the services sector,which has demonstrated an annual growth of 2.4%. The sector of industry grew by 1.5% and those of construction and agriculture decreased by -2.6% and -1% respectively. Idescat’s previous predictions for 2014 quarters has been reviewed: the 0.5% initially estimated for the first quarter increased to 0.7%, while the 0.6% for the second quarter dropped to 0.5%.

Figures released by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce on Monday showed that the economy of Catalonia is set to grow by 1.6% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015. The Chamber also predicted that by 2015, there will be a 2% rise in Spain’s GDP and 1.4% in that of the Eurozone countries average. According to the President of the Chamber, Miquel Valls, the recovery of Catalan and Spanish economies is "solid", but he stressed that the "austerity in wages" must be maintained. This report comes after the success of all Catalan banks passing the stress tests issued by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank, which 25 banks across Europe failed. Related economic news is that the unemployment figures released for third quarter of 2014 set Catalonia’s rate at 19.1% and Spain’s at 23.67%.

Catalonia’s GDP recorded an annual increase of 1.4% in the second quarter of 2014, the best result since September 2008, according to official figures published on Friday by the Catalan Institute of Statistics (IDESCAT). The 1.8% increase in domestic demand means that the annual rate of Catalonia’s GDP is higher than Spain's average, and more than that of the European Union (EU28), both located at 1.2%. Not only is Government spending showing a favourable trend, but there has also been growth in the services sector, and those of industry and agriculture. From September 2014, the EU has set mandatory implementation of the new European System of Accounts (ESA 2010), which IDESCAT plans to have in place to coincide with the results of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2014.