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European Commission now expects GDP to grow 2.9% this year

The Catalan Ministry for Economy and Tax Office presented this Wednesday the data of the macroeconomic chart to be included in the budget for 2017, which the Catalan executive expects to pass next week.  According to this document, the Catalan economy’s expected growth will be 3.4%, 0.5% more than the growth forecast for the Spanish economy, which is expected to be 2.9%. Regarding 2017, the chart keeps the figure released last May which foresaw 2.7% growth. According to the Catalan Vice-president and Minister for Economy and Tax Office, Oriol Junqueras, this figure is “considerably higher” than the expected growth for the Eurozone (1.5%). The budget for 2017 also foresees the creation of 160,000 jobs between 2016 and 2017. 

47.7% of Catalans would vote for independence while 42.4% would opt to keep the current status quo. This is the first time that ‘yes’ surpasses ‘no’ since 2014, when the 9-N symbolic vote on independence was held. Moreover, the percentage of those who don’t support Catalonia’s independence has dropped by 5 points, in comparison to the last poll released by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), in March 2016. The survey, run by the Government, also showed that governing cross-party list, pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sí’ would win the elections again, if they were called in the coming weeks, obtaining between 60 and 62 MPs in the Parliament; currently they hold 62 seats. Alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ would come second, nearly doubling the number of seats they got in the 27-S Catalan Elections. 

The President of Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce Miquel Valls has recognised that there is "an important concern" among many business owners about Catalonia's self-determination process and the economic consequences resulting from the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September and which will be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence. A few months ago, Valls presented a report from the Chamber of Commerce stating that the self-determination process of the last few years had not affected the economy, as exports, tourism and direct foreign investment were growing at a higher rate in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain. However, as the 'de facto' plebiscite approaches and the political landscape becomes more uncertain due to the independence road map and threats from Spanish institutions, business owners are increasingly worried. In this vein, Valls urged the political parties to detail their economic proposals for after the September elections.

The Catalan economy has now accumulated 8 consecutive quarters of economic growth, posting a 0.9% increase in GDP between January and March, according to provisional data released on Thursday by the Catalan Finance Ministry and the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). Regarding inter-annual figures, the Catalan economy had grown by 2.4% by the end of the first quarter of 2015 compared to figures from the same period in 2014. These last figures confirm a strengthening of inter-annual growth, since last December it reached 1.9%, and an overall strengthening of the Catalan economy and its recovery from the crisis of the last years. The recovery of the internal demand and the continuing good performance of the export and tourism sectors are the main engines behind the positive figures from the first quarter of 2015. In addition, the industrial sector has been growing for the last 3 years and construction has started to grow again after almost 7 years of continuous decline.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

The Catalan economy’s indicators are posting positive figures and the research department of the BBVA bank has reviewed its growth forecast for Catalonia for the current and the next years. According to the report issued on Thursday by the BBVA, the Catalan economy will grow by 1.3% in 2014 and by 1.8% in 2015, which are higher rates than those initially predicted. On top of this, 140,000 new jobs will be created in those two years, which represents a 4.3% employment growth. In addition, it puts an end to the negative trend that destroyed 17.3% of the existing jobs between 2008 and 2013. The BBVA also praises “the very significant effort” made by the Catalan Government to reduce public deficit in the last few years, although they will not be enough to meet the strict deficit objectives for 2014 and 2015, unilaterally imposed by the Spanish Government.

The pace of the Catalan economic recovery is "accelerating" according to Miquel Valls, the President of Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce. This is especially apparent in the second quarter of this year, which saw the interannual GDP grow by 1.3%, compared to the 0.4% growth registered in the first quarter of 2014. This rapid acceleration will oblige the Chamber to review in its autumn report its economic forecasts for Catalonia in 2014 and 2015, which are currently set at 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. Although there is still uncertainty to exactly what shape the new economic climate will take, the new predictions of growth could be above 1.5% for 2014 and 2% in 2015, indicated Valls.

The Catalan Government forecasts that unemployment will fall to 21.7% in 2014, and will be below 20% in 2015. This is according to the Macroeconomic Forecasts report published by the Catalan Ministry of the Economy on Monday. The report confirms the recovery of the Catalan economy, which has accumulated positive growth since the second quarter of 2013. For 2015, the Catalan Government expects the economy to grow 2.1%.

Brussels believes it is "unlikely" to relapse into a second recession but warned that the possibility "can not be excluded". The European Commission has not lowered its growth forecast for Spain or the whole of the Euro area despite the financial turbulences of the last weeks.

The data corresponded to the end of June. The Spanish Statistics Institute confirmed the data, proving the prediction by the Bank of Spain of a slowdown in the economy.