fiscal balances

Following the agreement reached last week between the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing pro-independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, on calling early elections in September as a plebiscite on Catalonia’s independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive’s budget for 2015 is now closer to definitive approval. On Monday, the ERC MPs started to withdraw their full amendments to the different sections of the Catalan Government’s budget. Now, the ERC is asking the CiU and the Government to debate their specific amendments on precise programmes in order to have “a fairer budget” which is less regional and more that of a country in its “national transition”, they said.

The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, has confirmed a new fiscal measure to increase the Autonomous Communities’ revenue, benefiting the Catalan Government as well. After the Council on Fiscal and Financial Policies (CPFF) held on Tuesday evening, Montoro confirmed that interest rates will be set at 0% for the loans given to the regional governments since 2012 through the Liquidity Fund (FLA). The measure will also be in place for 2015. However, the Autonomous Communities that have already met the deficit targets will also be granted a 0% rate for 2016 and 2017. The Catalan Government welcomes the measure but is sceptical about its details. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, demanded an entirely new funding scheme, since the current one expired a year ago. Montoro is not renewing the inter-territorial funding scheme and instead is using this loan system, which obliges regional governments to return the transferred funds.

The Catalan Government presented on Tuesday its budget proposal for 2015, which has a €22.48 billion spending but only a €19.98 billion revenue. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, insisted that spending cannot be further reduced since no further budget cuts can be implemented without seriously damaging public services. In fact, the current budget keeps social spending levels of 2014, which represent 71.2% of the new budget. In addition, public employees' full salary will be restored, after it had been lowered for the last 3 years. The 2015 budget posts a 0.7% deficit (€1.44 billion). However, there is a €2.5 billion difference between spending and revenue that should mostly be covered with €2.19 billion from Spanish Government's pending debts. However, Mas-Colell does not rule out being granted a higher deficit target, since the current one is "unfair" and is not in line with the Catalan Government's austerity measures already adopted. Furthermore, the Spanish Government has reduced funds from the regular funding scheme by 10.7% between 2013 and 2015, a €2 billion reduction, despite the economy is recovering. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, confirmed that Spain and Catalonia are already now in a situation of “open conflict”, after the criminal prosecution launched against him and two other members of his Cabinet. However, Mas asked the Spanish Government to end its “angry” attitude and start negotiating, proposing ways out of the current situation. The Catalan President added that the international community will ask the Spanish Government to sit and talk if the current open conflict finally generates “concerns” at an international level. Mas was addressing an economic forum with the main representatives of Catalonia’s business community. The Spanish Minister for the Economy, Luís de Guindos, was also present and they were in friendly conversation for a little while. De Guindos emphasized that the Spanish Government has issued “bailouts for Catalonia in difficult moments”.

The European Commission has warned Spain about its budget for 2015 and the possibility of meeting the global deficit target of 4.2%. It has asked the Spanish Government to adopt the necessary measures to guarantee that the 2015 budget will respect the Stability and Growth Pact. The Spanish Minister for the Economy answered back and affirmed that no additional measures will be adopted since the planned budget and the forecast economic growth “are enough”. The Commission also demanded that the Spanish Government put “more pressure” on the Autonomous Communities that will not meet their deficit target for 2014, which is likely the case of Catalonia. Brussels directly asked for the implementation of “corrective measures” in these cases. However, the Commission did not make any comment on whether such deficit targets unilaterally imposed by Madrid are fair or realistic. In fact, the Catalan Finance Minister accused the Spanish Government of putting the blame on the Autonomous Communities and “discrediting” them, in order to recentralise powers. 

On Wednesday, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cirstobal Montoro, refused to start negotiating and launching a new funding scheme for the Autonomous Communities before 2016, even though the current model had to be reviewed before January 2014. The Catalan Government has been insisting on its review since 2012, since the system does not properly fund basic public services such as healthcare and education in times of economic crisis, areas which are entirely managed by the Autonomous Communities. In addition, Catalonia suffers a permanently high fiscal deficit: each year Catalan taxpayers have to give away some 8.5% of Catalonia’s annual GDP to fund services and infrastructure in poorer regions in Spain. The problem is that after such transfers, public services in the poorer parts of Spain have more money per inhabitant than the Catalan ones and basic infrastructure in Catalonia is not built. The Spanish Government has been postponing the new model, despite the territorial tensions and the self-determination demands.

On Sunday the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) approved another solemn declaration proposing a Constitutional Reform, after it already did so in July 2013. Once again the PSOE has not detailed their proposal, but insists on building a true federal model, going beyond the current Autonomous Community system. The People's Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government – opposes such a reform although they "agree to talk" about it. The PSOE wants the PP to "immediately" approve the creation of a Constitutional Reform committee at the Spanish Parliament and set expert hearings to debate ideas. However, they do not want "to rush" to solve Catalonia's "urgent problem", as explained by the President of Andalusia and PSOE's Chairperson, Susana Díaz. Meanwhile, the alternative left party Podemos, which could win the next Spanish elections, has elected Pablo Iglesias as its Secretary General, who has promised a broad Constitutional Reform. Iglesias recognises Catalonia's right to self-determination but considers that the Catalan Government cannot approve a unilateral declaration of independence.

The day after 2.3 million citizens gave their opinion on Catalonia's independence, the reactions of Spanish and Catalan parties did not bring great surprises. The PP, which runs the Spanish Government, considered the vote "illegal" and announced potential legal actions. In addition, they stated that "a silent majority" did not vote. The Spanish and Catalan Socialist parties (PSOE and PSC) insisted on a Constitutional Reform and rejected an independence referendum. Populist party Ciutadans (C's) asked for early elections, while Spanish nationalist UPyD wanted Catalonia's autonomy to be suspended. Parties supporting self-determination praised Sunday's vote. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU wants to explore negotiations, although Liberal CDC is sceptical about the results. The left-wing independence party ERC and the alternative left and radical independence CUP rejected negotiations with Madrid. The green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA asked for a binding referendum.

On Sunday, Catalans are being called to give their opinion about independence in a participatory process, organised by the Catalan Government in cooperation with more than 40,000 volunteers and many town halls, which replaces the original consultation vote also scheduled for the 9^th of November. The Spanish Government appealed against the first vote, the Constitutional Court suspended it, the Catalan Government launched an alternative process and the Spanish Government filed a new appeal, accepted by the Constitutional Court. However, this time the non-binding participatory has been maintained with a wide consensus among Catalan institutions a wide representation from the civil society. These are the three last steps of an intense self-determination process, which started with the approval and trimming of the Catalan Statute of Autonomy and was shaped by four massive demonstrations and a series of "no" and threats by the Spanish authorities. Here is a summary of the main milestones of this process before the massive pro-independence demonstration of 2012.

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.

Andreu Mas-Colell, the Catalan Government's Minister for Finance, emphasised that he cannot implement further budget cuts without "severely deteriorating" basic public services. After Catalonia's ministerial spending having dropped by an average of 20.3% with continuous budget cuts since 2010, public spending reduction has reached its "limit", argued Mas-Colell. The Catalan Government has exclusive control over public healthcare, education and social policies, while most of its revenue depends on transfers from the the Spanish Executive, which collects the taxes paid by Catalan citizens. Once again, Mas-Colell accused the Spanish Government of "strangling" Catalonia's finances by recentralising power. He announced he will not carry out an additional €3.3 billion budget reduction in 2015 and asked Madrid to honour pending debts, modify the too-strict deficit targets and review Catalonia's funding scheme.

The left-wing independence party ERC asked the Catalan President to join the Government "in order to protect the [self-determination] consultation vote" scheduled on the 9^th of November. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that they will talk about it in the coming days to strengthen the unity around November's vote. In addition, the Catalan Socialist party (PSC) also asked Mas to talk to them if the Constitutional Court ultimately bans the consultation vote. The People's Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, accused Mas of promoting "a soft dictatorship" in Catalonia. The green-socialist and post-communist coalition ICV stated they want a consultation vote with "credibility". The Spanish nationalist and populist C's said that Mas' time is finished and asked for early elections. Finally, the alternative left and radical independence party CUP advocated ignoring Spain's institutions and voting on the 9^th of November by any means.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated that his "full commitment" is to make sure that Catalans can vote on the 9^th of November self-determination consultation "with full democratic guarantees". In his opening speech at the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, Mas emphasised that his will is to make use of his entire term in office, which ends in November 2016, but only "if it is possible". He hinted that early elections could be called if November's vote could not be carried out with "enough democratic guarantees". In addition, Mas stressed the Government's "unequivocal commitment" to eradicate corruption. He also underlined that the Catalan economy is starting to recover from the economic crisis, leading Spain's recovery. However, he warned of the weak situation of public finances and of Catalonia's self-government because of Madrid's recentralisation and unilateral actions.

In 2015 the employees of the Catalan Government and related institutions and public companies will receive their full salary once again after having suffered a 7.5% reduction over the last 3 years. The Spokesperson for the Catalan Government and Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, announced the measure on Tuesday, after the weekly Cabinet meeting. Furthermore, the Executive will also stop the 15% reduction of working hours and salary of temporary workers in the public sector. Those austerity measures were approved in the 2012 budget as a drastic way to cut public spending in order to reduce the public deficit. The Spanish Government has been unilaterally imposing strict deficit targets on the Catalan Executive while it maintained an unfair inter-territorial fiscal scheme with Catalonia and reduced its resources. In fact, the Spanish Government and most of the other Autonomous Communities did not reduce public salaries in the worst years of economic crisis, while the Catalan Government was the first one to launch the ambitious austerity plan.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated once again that the self-determination consultation vote will take place on the 9^th of November but he also added that "things have to be done in the right way". In front of businesspeople at an event of Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce, Mas stressed that "both things have to come together", meaning voting and doing things right. He underlined that "this means always respecting an existing legal framework". After the controversies on whether the vote should take place if the Constitutional Court bans it, Mas insisted that the call will be based on Catalan legislation and that the Court might not ban it in the end. Besides, he admitted that Catalonia's "freedom" would come with some economic costs, but that those of continuing in the current situation would be much higher. Mas also said that Pujol's scandal "will not affect" him or the Catalan Government.