finances

The Catalan economy’s indicators are posting positive figures and the research department of the BBVA bank has reviewed its growth forecast for Catalonia for the current and the next years. According to the report issued on Thursday by the BBVA, the Catalan economy will grow by 1.3% in 2014 and by 1.8% in 2015, which are higher rates than those initially predicted. On top of this, 140,000 new jobs will be created in those two years, which represents a 4.3% employment growth. In addition, it puts an end to the negative trend that destroyed 17.3% of the existing jobs between 2008 and 2013. The BBVA also praises “the very significant effort” made by the Catalan Government to reduce public deficit in the last few years, although they will not be enough to meet the strict deficit objectives for 2014 and 2015, unilaterally imposed by the Spanish Government.

On Wednesday, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cirstobal Montoro, refused to start negotiating and launching a new funding scheme for the Autonomous Communities before 2016, even though the current model had to be reviewed before January 2014. The Catalan Government has been insisting on its review since 2012, since the system does not properly fund basic public services such as healthcare and education in times of economic crisis, areas which are entirely managed by the Autonomous Communities. In addition, Catalonia suffers a permanently high fiscal deficit: each year Catalan taxpayers have to give away some 8.5% of Catalonia’s annual GDP to fund services and infrastructure in poorer regions in Spain. The problem is that after such transfers, public services in the poorer parts of Spain have more money per inhabitant than the Catalan ones and basic infrastructure in Catalonia is not built. The Spanish Government has been postponing the new model, despite the territorial tensions and the self-determination demands.

On Friday, the Spanish Government approved the €1,350 million compensation to Escal UGS, the company behind the controversial Castor Project, a submarine facility built to store 1.3 billion tonnes worth of gas reserves off the Ebro Delta coast. This project failed after it was found to have caused almost 1,000 small earthquakes. This amount will be financed through increased tariffs to gas consumers over the next 30 years, resulting in public compensation for a private investment. The Spanish Government is obliged to pay the developer Escal UGS, because of a clause in the 2008 Royal Decree whereby the State would agree to compensate the company should the project be unable to be completed. An appeal of this law was rejected by the Spanish Supreme Court last October. The Spanish Government has argued that this solution is cheaper than operating the project. The Catalan Government however, which had opposed the project from the start, has appealed this decision to the Constitutional Court.

The 18^th Edition of the Barcelona Meeting Point will take place between 29 October and 2 November in Fira de Barcelona's Montjuic venue. The trade fair is a real estate exhibition that brings together buyers and sellers to network and learn about the latest industry trends. This year there will be 265 participating companies from 23 countries. According to the show’s President, Enric Lacalle, it will be the first edition to open in a recovering housing sector, after 6 years of crisis and setbacks. The real estate market is strengthening; there was a 36.6% increase in the acquisition of houses by foreigners in 2013 and a 12.5% rise in housing sales throughout Spain. In addition, real estate investment in Barcelona is expected to exceed €1.6 billion in 2014, 30% more than last year. In fact, 21 international investment funds will participate in the trade fair. The show will also include a series of talks and presentations, and offer financing options for property purchase.

While the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled on the 9^th of November approaches, the Catalan Government has additional priorities on its plate, starting with the approval of its budget for 2015. However, right now the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU does not have enough parliamentary support to approve it. Its parliamentary ally, the left-wing independence party ERC, is reluctant to back the new budget after the Catalan Government cancelled the original consultation vote. The ERC wants to start preparing the first budget of an independent state and on Tuesday it offered to extend the 2014 budget. However, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, announced on Wednesday he will bring the budget proposal to the Parliament anyway. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) offered itself as an ally, but Mas asked them to back the alternative consultation vote. The PSC replied that if the question is changed, "we can talk about everything".

Figures released by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce on Monday showed that the economy of Catalonia is set to grow by 1.6% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015. The Chamber also predicted that by 2015, there will be a 2% rise in Spain’s GDP and 1.4% in that of the Eurozone countries average. According to the President of the Chamber, Miquel Valls, the recovery of Catalan and Spanish economies is "solid", but he stressed that the "austerity in wages" must be maintained. This report comes after the success of all Catalan banks passing the stress tests issued by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank, which 25 banks across Europe failed. Related economic news is that the unemployment figures released for third quarter of 2014 set Catalonia’s rate at 19.1% and Spain’s at 23.67%.

The Catalan banking system boasts a strong image after the publication on Sunday of the 2014 EU-wide stress test results, issued by the European Banking Authority (EBA). All the financial entities based in Catalonia have sailed through the EBA stress test, showing they could face the most adverse economic developments with only their own resources. In the most difficult scenario, Barcelona-based CaixaBank – which is the largest bank in the Spanish market – reached a 9.3% equity ratio (CET1), Banc Sabadell got an 8.3% and Catalunya Banc an 8%. The minimum required was 5.5%, which was not reached by 24 of the 123 European banks analysed. Only one Spanish entity, Madrid-based Liberbank, would need additional capital in the worst case scenario.

In 2015, Catalonia will receive the lowest investment from the Spanish Government in the last 17 years, in relative terms. The Executive chaired by Mariano Rajoy will only spend 9.5% of the territorial investments in Catalonia, despite the fact that the Autonomous Community accounts for 19% of Spain's GDP and 16% of the country's population. The percentage is even lower than last year's, when Rajoy allocated 9.6% of the territorial investments to Catalonia, which leads Spain's economy. In the current political climate, when the relation between Catalonia and Spain is seriously questioned by a majority of Catalans, such figures are far from supporting the "better together" way.

Andreu Mas-Colell, the Catalan Government's Minister for Finance, emphasised that he cannot implement further budget cuts without "severely deteriorating" basic public services. After Catalonia's ministerial spending having dropped by an average of 20.3% with continuous budget cuts since 2010, public spending reduction has reached its "limit", argued Mas-Colell. The Catalan Government has exclusive control over public healthcare, education and social policies, while most of its revenue depends on transfers from the the Spanish Executive, which collects the taxes paid by Catalan citizens. Once again, Mas-Colell accused the Spanish Government of "strangling" Catalonia's finances by recentralising power. He announced he will not carry out an additional €3.3 billion budget reduction in 2015 and asked Madrid to honour pending debts, modify the too-strict deficit targets and review Catalonia's funding scheme.

In 2015 the employees of the Catalan Government and related institutions and public companies will receive their full salary once again after having suffered a 7.5% reduction over the last 3 years. The Spokesperson for the Catalan Government and Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, announced the measure on Tuesday, after the weekly Cabinet meeting. Furthermore, the Executive will also stop the 15% reduction of working hours and salary of temporary workers in the public sector. Those austerity measures were approved in the 2012 budget as a drastic way to cut public spending in order to reduce the public deficit. The Spanish Government has been unilaterally imposing strict deficit targets on the Catalan Executive while it maintained an unfair inter-territorial fiscal scheme with Catalonia and reduced its resources. In fact, the Spanish Government and most of the other Autonomous Communities did not reduce public salaries in the worst years of economic crisis, while the Catalan Government was the first one to launch the ambitious austerity plan.

Barcelona-based Caixabank has come to an agreement with Barclays Bank PLC to buy Barclays Bank SAU for €800 million. The purchase of Spain's banking business of the UK company includes 550,000 new customers, a network of 270 branches and nearly 2,400 employees. However, the agreement excludes Barclay's Spanish investment banking business and Barclaycard, which will remain in the hands of the British entity. It is expected that the transaction will become effective later this year. The restructuring process following this acquisition will cost CaixaBank an estimated €300 million. However, the elimination of duplications is expected to save the Catalan bank €70 billion gross in 2015, €80 billion in 2016 and €150 million a year from then on.

The real estate market has stopped its downward trend and has started its recovery in Spain. Housing prices already registered an increase in September of 2013 in quarterly terms, but now the prices grew for the first time in annual terms, a phenomenon not registered for the last 6 years. By the end of June 2014, prices grew by 0.97% compared to June 2013. In quarterly terms, housing prices increased by 1.53% compared to March 2014. Since the start of the economic crisis in 2008, housing prices have plummeted an average of 32% throughout Spain, with prices equivalent to those registered in 2003. In the second quarter of 2014, Catalonia was the Autonomous Community with the second highest number of housing sales, registering 11,980 operations.

On Thursday, the Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, admitted that Catalonia will not be able to meet the strict 1% deficit target imposed by the Spanish Government for 2014. In fact, the Catalan Executive had previously warned on several occasions that this deficit target was not realistic, despite the great austerity efforts undertaken over the past four years. In addition, despite Spain's economic recovery of 2014 – which is led by Catalonia – and therefore the increase of taxable activity, the Spanish Government will reduce the Catalan executive's funds by €500 million this year while the deficit target becomes stricter. On Wednesday, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, already stated that, considering the austerity measures adopted since 2011, further budget cuts cannot be undertaken in 2014 without dramatically damaging basic public services such as healthcare and education. Instead of relaxing the deficit target or transferring pending funds and debts to the Catalan Government, the Spanish Finance Ministry will reduce the interest rate that the Autonomous Communities have to pay back to 1% for the loans of the Liquifidity Fund (FLA).

FC Barcelona's Economic Vice President, Javier Faus, has given a press conference on Tuesday to review the 2013/14 finances, revealing that the Catalan club has made its second highest profit ever of €41 million a figure previously only topped by the 49 million euros in the 2011/12 season. Furthermore, Barça posted a record income of €530 million. Faus also explained that in the four seasons since 2010/11, when the new Board came into power, the club has an accumulated profit of €113 million. In addition, The 2013/14 season also witnessed a reduction in the net debt by 44 million euros, meaning that since the new Board took over, this figure has decreased by 143 million, and as of June 30 of this year now stands at 287 million euros, while four years ago it was 431 million.

On Tuesday, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, rejected to review the funding scheme of the Autonomous Communities to grant them more resources, despite the fact that the Catalan Government is under-budgeted. On Wednesday, the Spanish Finance Ministry downplayed Catalonia's fiscal deficit by issuing the so-called fiscal balances, which calculate the inter-territorial fiscal transfers, posting a significantly low Catalan contribution. According to the Spanish Government's new calculations, Catalonia gave away €8.46 billion in 2011, representing 4.35% of its GDP. The figure is significantly lower than the Catalan Government's calculations: €15.01 billion and €11.09 billion, using two complementary methodologies used by the Spanish Executive in 2008 and agreed among independent university experts.