federalism

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) obtained 7 MPs in the last Spanish Elections, half of what they obtained in 2011. Although their partner in Spain, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) was the second force in the 350-seat Spanish Parliament, PSC suffered a huge decline in Catalonia, mainly due to its refusal to hold a referendum on independence and also because it is regarded as a party from the ‘establishment’ in comparison to new forces such as Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’ and Alternative Left ‘Podemos’. To try to reverse this negative trend, PSC decided to change its lead candidate for the upcoming Spanish Elections, to be held on the 26^th of June. Former Spanish Minister for Defence, Carme Chacón, was replaced by Meritxell Batet, who has insisted on reforming the Spanish Constitution in order to solve the political problem between Catalonia and Spain.

The leadership of the Christian-Democrat party UDC supports Catalonia's self-determination but it is against full independence; it supports the creation of a Catalan State with greater powers than it currently has while remaining within Spain, which should embrace its plurinational nature and become a confederal country. However, an important part of UDC's base does support independence and has been trying to force an open debate and consultation on it within the party, in order to set the official party stance on this issue. Currently, the leadership's vision represents UDC's traditional stance on this issue, but the party does not have an official stance on independence yet. This situation has provoked tensions within the small party but also with their allies for the last three-and-a-half decades, the Liberal party CDC, which is the largest force within the two-party coalition CiU that currently runs the Catalan Government. UDC announced an internal consultation on 14 June to fix the party's definitive stance on this debate. However, the leadership has presented a question that avoids independence; a formulation that has created quite some controversy among UDC members.

The support for independence is at its lowest ebb of the last two years according to the latest survey from the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO), published on Friday. 48% of Catalan citizens are against independence from Spain, while 44.1% are in favour of it. The figures confirm the trend observed in the last CEO survey released in December, when the percentage of those opposing independence (45.3%) overtook those in favour (44.5%) for the first time since 2012. During the last months there have been significant quarrels among the pro-independence parties and there was already the general feeling that the movement was losing supports. This also coincides with a greater mobilisation of the 'no' side, which has focused on spreading doubt and uncertainty about the independence project, and the appearance of new parties at Spanish level that are promising to carry out great changes in the democratic and economic systems.

On Monday, the National Executive Commission of the centre-right pro-Catalan State Coalition CiU, which is its leading committee, has explicitly referred to last week's crisis. Last Tuesday, the CiU MPs in the Spanish Parliament voted differently, showing a split within the coalition, coinciding with the two integrated parties: the Liberal and pro-independence force CDC (the largest one) on one side and the Christian-Democrat and pro-Spanish unity party UDC on the other. The CiU's Spokesperson in the Spanish Parliament and leader of the UDC, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, believed the CDC MPs had not obeyed his voting instructions to support the Penal Code's reform, while the Liberal MPs were insisting that the CiU group had previously agreed on abstaining. Now, the CiU leadership considers the crisis to be over and highlighted their "full support" for Duran i Lleida.

Miquel Iceta, First Secretary of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), is currently rejecting a vote on independence and is proposing a broad Constitutional Reform to grant Catalonia a better fitting within a truly federal Spain. On Wednesday evening, Iceta exposed his proposals in a conference, emulating what the main pro-independence leaders – Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras – had done one and two weeks ago. On Thursday, he was interviewed by a radio station about his proposals and he was asked about would happen if Catalans were to reject the Constitutional Reform he is pushing for. In such scenario, the leader of the PSC – which is part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – stated that he would support the organisation of a referendum on independence. However, before voting on breaking up with Spain, Iceta insisted on the need to vote on a new agreement set through a Constitutional Reform.

Miquel Iceta, First Secretary of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), proposed his road map for the coming two years: no early elections and broad Constitutional Reform to better fit Catalonia into a federal Spain. On Wednesday Iceta held his own conference after those of the Catalan President and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, and the left-wing independence party (ERC), Oriol Junqueras. While the two others support independence, Iceta opposes it. He totally rejected the road maps proposed by Mas and Junqueras and insisted on the need to work "on the real problems of Catalans", such as poverty, unemployment, budget cuts in public healthcare, etc. However, the PSC leader admitted that "there will be no solution without a vote", but "a real vote". Iceta said that before breaking up with Spain, Catalans should be allowed to vote on "a new agreement" to remain in Spain. In order to facilitate such a new agreement, he proposed that the Spanish Government cancel part of the Autonomous Communities' debt.

After months of speculation, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, the leader of the Christian-Democrat party UDC – which is the smallest force within the governing  two-party centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU – presented his new political initiative to build an alternative option between the current territorial model and independence from Spain. Duran has been advocating for the creation of a confederated Catalan State within a more decentralised Spain, which would recognise Catalonia's nationhood, respect Catalan language and launch a fairer inter-territorial fiscal scheme for Catalan interests. With the platform 'Construïm' ('We build', in English), Duran is now trying to reach new potential voters "who feel orphaned from any political party"; voters worried about "social issues" and the economy, "beyond the debate about independence". With early elections on the horizon, the initiative is likely to represent the split of the CiU, which has been the main actor of Catalan politics for the last 35 years.

On Sunday the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) approved another solemn declaration proposing a Constitutional Reform, after it already did so in July 2013. Once again the PSOE has not detailed their proposal, but insists on building a true federal model, going beyond the current Autonomous Community system. The People's Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government – opposes such a reform although they "agree to talk" about it. The PSOE wants the PP to "immediately" approve the creation of a Constitutional Reform committee at the Spanish Parliament and set expert hearings to debate ideas. However, they do not want "to rush" to solve Catalonia's "urgent problem", as explained by the President of Andalusia and PSOE's Chairperson, Susana Díaz. Meanwhile, the alternative left party Podemos, which could win the next Spanish elections, has elected Pablo Iglesias as its Secretary General, who has promised a broad Constitutional Reform. Iglesias recognises Catalonia's right to self-determination but considers that the Catalan Government cannot approve a unilateral declaration of independence.

Josep Maria Vila d'Abadal, the President of the Association of Municipalities for Independence (AMI), wanted to reassure the mayors that have offered municipal venues to host polling stations on Sunday, particularly in small towns and villages where the Catalan Government does not have facilities of its own. "Mayors do not have to be afraid of anything […] because their legal coverage is guaranteed" stated Vila d'Abadal, who is also the Mayor of Vic (a city in Central Catalonia). He also announced that the AMI – which co-organised the massive pro-independence demonstrations of 2012, 2013 and 2014 – and the Catalan Association of Municipalities will send a letter on Friday reassuring mayors. According to Vila d'Abadal "the future of Catalonia […] as a people" is at stake on November 9. According to him, after Sunday's vote, the most likely scenario is the one leading Catalans towards independence.

The People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government and holds an absolute majority in the Parliament and Senate, closed the door on launching a broad debate on Spain’s territorial organisation and on reforming the Constitution accordingly. The objective of this reform would be to keep Catalonia within Spain by answering some of the Catalan claims and working towards an improved relationship. “We are not willing to open debates that divide the Spaniards”, stated Alfonso Alonso, the PP Spokesperson at the Spanish Parliament. The Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, had sent a letter to the President of the Spanish Parliament, asking him to create “a body” to debate on a broad territorial reform.

The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), led by Mas and running the Catalan Government, emphasised that “today we are writing history”. In addition, the Christian-Democrat force within the two-party coalition CiU, UDC, highlighted that having an “inclusive and clear” question was possible. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) recognised it was not their preferred question but it is now theirs it directly asks about independence. The Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) pointed out that the question also suits those defending a Catalan State within a federal Spain. The radical left-wing and independence party CUP accepts the question in order to have the widest possible pact. The parties appeared together before the press to present the pact and answer questions, joined by the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, who announced the question and date.

According to a poll from the Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), 54.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” to independence while 22.1% would vote “no” and 15.7% are undecided. The poll shows similar percentages than the other polls issued in the last few months from several different institutions and companies. However, the poll indicates that for the first time, independence is the clear preferred alternative among possible formulas for the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. Independence would be the preferred scenario for 48.5% of Catalans, while those in favour of a federal Spain with Catalonia having greater powers represent 21.3% of the interviewees. Finally, the Catalans that prefer maintaining the current status quo amount to 18.6%.

Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, the leader of Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC) – which is the Christian-Democrat party and smaller force within the two-party Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – insisted that he does not want independence from Spain, but a Catalan state within a Spanish Confederation. Duran – who is also CiU’s ‘number 2’ – has been proposing this formula for years. However, in the last few months and particularly on the occasion of the 400-kilometre human chain, Duran has emphasised his stance, while the larger party within CiU – the Liberal Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC) – was increasingly supporting independence. Nevertheless, Duran insisted that Catalonia must vote in a self-determination referendum, where he will defend a third way “between independence and submission”.