eurozone

The President of the employer’s association Cercle Català de Negocis (CCN), Albert Pont, stated that part of the Spanish Government’s debt is “odious” and therefore Catalonia cannot recognise this “illegitimate debt”. However, Pont underlined the “willingness” to pay for the proportionate share of the rest of the debt, which should be calculated “item by item”. In an exclusive interview with the CNA, he denounced a public debt generated “for the benefit of no more than a few companies” that “provide works, services and infrastructures” for the Spanish Government. “If Spain does not recognise the independence of Catalonia, Spain should assume its debt completely and the Catalan Government its own debt”, he warned. In addition, Pont denounced the fact that the Spanish Executive is taking away “between €16 billion and €18 billion” from Catalonia each year, a fiscal deficit amounting to “around 9%” of the Catalan GDP. “The IMF already established that fiscal deficits exceeding 4% of the GDP of a territory amounted to colonial relations”, he highlighted. Besides, he explained that “the average custom duty is between 1.4% and 1.5%”. However, Pont ruled out this possibility since a “political solution” will be reached to keep Catalonia within the EU.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy also said that an independent Scotland would be “out of the European Union, the United Nations and all the applicable international treaties for being part of the UK”. Regarding the Catalan Parliament’s bill to formally request the transfer of the powers to organise referendums to the Catalan Executive, based on Article 150.2 of the Constitution, Rajoy has categorically rejected the idea. He stated that his stance on Catalonia’s self-determination “is clear” and “does not include nuances”. In addition, Rajoy said that he is “always open to dialogue” but that “it is impossible to talk” with Catalonia because of “a continuous process of unilateral decisions”. Furthermore, the Deputy Prime Minister insisted that a self-determination vote “cannot take place” and “goes against the Constitution”.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, emphasised that an independent Catalonia would “want to remain” within the European Union. Mas highlighted the need to reach “a transition agreement” to ensure the uninterrupted continuity of an independent Catalonia within “the Eurozone, the EU, the Schengen Area and the NATO”. In addition, Mas insisted that, if the Spanish Government bans the self-determination referendum, he will have to call plebiscitary elections to give Catalans the opportunity to vote on their future. Besides, Mas announced he “will quit politics soon”; “at most” he will be in office for just “another term” to “push forward” Catalonia’s self-determination process.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, replied that “nobody believes” in the “apocalyptic” message sent by the Governor of the Bank of Spain, who was appointed by the current Spanish Government in 2012. Mas asked Luís María Linde for “caution” and “to serve the whole of Spain and do not take sides”. Linde stated in Madrid that “independence is unviable”. He argued that the European Central Bank only funds Member States and thus Catalonia would be “obliged to issue its own currency” and have “its own banking supervisor”. On the same day, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, said that if Catalonia were independent it would have “to abandon the Euro” and this could even lead to putting the entire Eurozone at risk. However, in September the European Commission confirmed that an independent Catalonia could continue to use the Euro in different scenarios.

Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG – the group formed by British Airways and Iberia, guaranteed that its subsidiary airline Vueling will continue having Barcelona El Prat Airport as its main base if Catalonia becomes an independent country and even if it is forced to abandon the European Union. “We will continue in Barcelona”, he emphasised on Tuesday in a meeting with press reporters from the Chinese city of Chengdu, according to an article published by Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia. Walsh was in China as British Airways was unveiling a new route linking this city with London.

Brussels confirmed on Friday the possibility of continuing to have the Euro as currency while not being part of the European Union. On Thursday the Catalan President, Artur Mas, emphasised that “Catalonia will have the Euro as its currency” whatever happens regarding its independence from Spain. Mas’ statement was immediately criticised by Madrid-based media, which are completely opposed to Catalonia’s self-determination and are arguing against it. In the last few days, a debate has been launched about whether an independent Catalonia would still be part of the EU. The Commission Spokesperson for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Simon O’Connor, emphasised that it is possible for a state to use the Euro as its currency independently of its EU membership. He named the examples of Monaco, Andorra and Montenegro, among others.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, wanted to clarify some doubts about Catalonia’s EU membership in the event of becoming an independent state, specifically regarding economic issues. The Catalan Government is insisting that the treaties do not say that a separated part would automatically be expelled from the EU and that the issue would require a political negotiation. However, the Catalan President emphasised on Thursday that what is crystal clear is that “whatever Catalonia decides [regarding its independence from Spain], it will have the Euro as its currency”. Mas was answering the international investors behind BCN World, a €4.5 billion leisure resort. On Wednesday they stated that they do not care whether Catalonia remains in Spain or not, but they do care whether it has the euro and remains within the EU internal market.

The former leader of the European Union diplomacy and now an International Relations professor at the Barcelona-based ESADE business school, Javier Solana, stated that it is “difficult” to believe that such a measure could be implemented in Spain or Italy. Solana, who chairs the EsadeGeo Centre for Global Economy and Geopolitics, highlighted the fact that “it is an unprecedented decision to make all depositors pay” such a tax. According to Solana, this could create “insecurity” and it is “an unfair decision for honest money savers”, despite the measure targeting those who have manipulated Cyprus’ financial system.

Despite initial fears of violent incidents the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting has been held peacefully. 8,000 police officers guarded the event by literally occupying the city. Besides, the ‘indignados’ movement demobilized their forces, and no anti-system protests took place.

The President of the European Central Bank, whose Governing Council met in Barcelona on May 3rd, praised the Spanish Government’s “significant effort” made in a “very short period of time” to approve structural reforms. However, Mario Draghi, asked Spain “to persevere” in the strategy based on austerity and accomplish further reforms. The ECB’s President emphasised Europe’s need to adopt measures strengthening economic growth but without abandoning the principles of austerity. Draghi recommended continuing to reduce public spending in order to control the deficit. As expected, the ECB is maintaining the interest rate at 1%.

Coinciding with the European Central Bank Governing Council organised in Barcelona, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, met with Mario Draghi and other members of the ECB Governing Council. Mas took the opportunity to explain to the ECB the Catalan Government’s austerity measures and its efforts to reduce Catalonia’s public deficit. He also spoke of his party’s support to all the reforms taken at Spanish level, despite being unpopular. However, Mas warned the ECB President that reducing the deficit too fast in the middle of an economic recession might worsen the crisis.

Kenneth Rogoff, currently professor at Harvard, predicts that Spain has a “high chance” of being rescued by the European Union. He also ads that, if it were not rescued, even France could fall.