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Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

The Catalan Government Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, has ironically stated that the situation in Catalonia “must be the most international of political domestic issues in the wide world”, if the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy is talking about it before the US President. Homs exclaimed: “every time, people say it is an internal issue and that it would be a mistake to treat it internationally, but Rajoy cannot stop talking about it in his public appearances”. Homs praised the international community for their silence on the Catalan issue, as they have likely been “pressured” by Spain to voice their disapproval. However, he did not directly refer to Barack Obama, who had avoided commenting on Catalonia’s potential independence at the White House press conference on Monday evening.

Next to the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (who went to the White House), the President of the United States, Barack Obama, did not talk about Catalonia despite being asked about it directly by a journalist. Obama did not repeat the formula expressed by other international leaders – it is Spain’s internal matter – but instead preferred to avoid the issue. He did not explicitly back the Spanish PM, despite the fact that Rajoy had stated, only a few minutes earlier, that “Catalonia’s independence will not happen”. Rajoy’s meeting with Obama and the following press conference at the White House were also controversial because the Spanish Government banned several media that were covering the trip and only allowed one Catalan newspaper to attend it.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC), the grassroots organisation that organised the two massive demonstrations for Catalonia’s independence in 2012 and 2013, is working on another initiative to allow Catalan citizens to hold a self-determination vote. This past weekend it installed 700 stands throughout Catalonia with 3,000 attorneys-in-fact to collect signatures for an independence referendum and, if this is deemed impossible, the unilateral declaration of independence, in accordance with international law. The ‘Sign a Vote for Independence’ initiative started last June and will continue during the upcoming months, but on Saturday and Sunday, a special push was given to boost the process. The ANC said the massive signature collecting had been “a success”. Figures will be provided next week although the campaign is still ongoing.

Artur Mas, President of the Catalan Government, signed an article published in New Europe’s special edition ‘Our world in 2014’, explaining why Catalans want to hold a self-determination vote on the 9^th of November, 2014. The European section of the publication includes articles from the French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, the Italian PM Enrico Letta, the UK Finance Minister George Osborne and two EU Commissioners, Neelie Kroes and Androulla Vassilliou, among others. In his article, Mas asked the Spanish Government to “abide by its professed democratic principles and to allow the referendum”. The Catalan President explained why a majority of Catalans are supporting independence from Spain due to historical, political, economic, cultural and identity-related reasons. “In twenty-first century Europe, we solve these disputes peacefully and democratically, with ballot boxes and votes” he stated.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s refusal to negotiate and allow the Catalans a consultation vote on independence “undermines the legitimacy of the Spanish political system” and is a violation of Catalonia’s democratic “right to express its own voice”. Such is the conclusion of Huw Evans, Law Professor at the Cardiff Metropolitan University. In a report entitled Law and Legitimacy: The denial of the Catalan voice, published by the Brussels think tank Centre Maurits Coppieters, Evans argues that Rajoy could authorise a referendum without breaching the Constitution. He states that Madrid’s current attitude “restricts (and, also […] denies) the right of the Catalan people to democratically pursue” independence.

The former Chief of Staff of the French Minister for European Affairs and current member of the Conseil d’État, Yves Gounin, argues that the independence of Catalonia, Scotland or Flanders would not cause their immediate expulsion from the European Union but neither would it result in their automatic inclusion. Gounin states that a political negotiation should be undertaken; it would be “the most realistic” approach, he says. Therefore, according to this study published in the journal Politique Étrangère, independence and EU membership should be negotiated at the same time and therefore the implementation of EU Treaties would not be interrupted at any moment. Gounin underlines that there are legal and political arguments to defend that an independent Catalonia or Scotland would not be expelled from the EU. It is in “everybody’s” interest, he highlighted.

The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Durao Barroso, has responded to the letter sent in December by Artur Mas, the President of the Catalan Government. Mas had informed Barroso and the leaders of the EU Member States about Catalonia’s self-determination process and the recent agreement to organise a consultation vote on the 9^th of November. The Commission President “thanked” Mas for his letter and the information about “the latest political developments in Catalonia”. However, he rejected issuing further comments “on a question of internal organisation related to the constitutional arrangements in the Member States”. Furthermore, concerning Catalonia’s EU Membership, Barroso “recalls the position […] expressed on several occasions”.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, insisted this Tuesday he will organise a self-determination vote within the legal framework on the date agreed upon by four political groups 3 weeks ago. In a press conference following the first Cabinet Meeting of 2014, Mas ruled out the possibility of making changes in the government he chairs on the short-term, after speculations that the Catalan Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) could sit in the Cabinet, formed by members from the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) and independents. In addition, he identified “a cross slope” in the economic, social and political context, referring to a slight recovery, after 6 “terrible and fearsome years”.

The Catalan President has sent a letter to the international leaders, detailing the agreement to hold a referendum in Catalonia, and urging them to encourage this “peaceful, democratic, transparent and democratic process”. In the letter, Mas explains that he is seeking to reach an agreement with the Spanish Government so the consultation can take place. He also states that there are five “legal and constitutional options” to authorize it.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, emphasised that an independent Catalonia would “want to remain” within the European Union. Mas highlighted the need to reach “a transition agreement” to ensure the uninterrupted continuity of an independent Catalonia within “the Eurozone, the EU, the Schengen Area and the NATO”. In addition, Mas insisted that, if the Spanish Government bans the self-determination referendum, he will have to call plebiscitary elections to give Catalans the opportunity to vote on their future. Besides, Mas announced he “will quit politics soon”; “at most” he will be in office for just “another term” to “push forward” Catalonia’s self-determination process.

The Catalan Government’s Advisory Council for the National Transition (CATN), formed of renowned independent experts, emphasised that Catalonia’s independence from Spain would not represent breaking their affective and historical bounds. Furthermore, they insisted on the need to continue and even to increase cooperation “based on a new principle of equality and mutual respect between both parties”. They have suggested different ways to cooperate, through different structures. For instance, they proposed the creation of the ‘Iberian Council’ bringing together Catalonia and Spain, as well as Portugal and Andorra if they wished to, which would mirror the Nordic Council or the Benelux. Furthermore, the CATN issued three other reports, including a detailed analysis of Catalonia’s tax agency.

The civil society organisation Súmate, bringing together Spanish-speaking Catalans who support independence from Spain, presented its local branch in Mataró, a coastal city in Greater Barcelona. On Tuesday evening, half an hour after the event’s kick off, a group of about six Fascists carrying Spanish flags interrupted the presentation and tried to stop it. They shouted insults against participants and carried banners against the association. “You are a submarine” of pro-independence parties and “You are sold to the ‘nazionalist’ tyranny” were some of the slogans. Ironically, these Fascists called the attendees of a democratic debate on Catalan nationalism ‘Nazis’. Spanish nationalism has compared Catalonia’s claims to Nazism on several occasions, while Madrid’s establishment and intellectuals have barely protested. 

Andreu Mas-Colell, Catalan Finance Minister, considered the People’s Party (PP) to be “obstructionist” for blocking the approval of the Catalan Government’s budget for 2014, which was initially scheduled for this week. On Tuesday evening the PP – which runs the Spanish Government – confirmed it was freezing the implementation of the €29.31 billion budget because it included €5 million (0.0176% of the total spending) to fund “electoral processes and citizen consultations”. Mas-Colell warned that by delaying the budget’s implementation, the Catalan Government will lose revenue coming from new taxes and therefore it will have more difficulties meeting the deficit targets for 2014. All the parties in the Catalan Parliament criticised the PP’s initiative except the anti-Catalan nationalism Ciutadans (C’s), which backed the action.

On Monday the People’s Party (PP) announced they were considering freezing the 2014 Catalan Government’s budget of €29.31 billion. The reason is that they include €5 million (0.017% of the total spending) to fund “electoral processes and citizen consultations”, which they fear could fund a self-determination vote. The Catalan Government has the power to organise a consultation process, as well as to modify small items once the budget is approved. The PP was waiting for the Spanish Finance Minister’s green light, since blocking the budget’s approval could have consequences on the objective to reduce public deficit and on meeting the targets imposed by the EU. Cristóbal Montoro argued that, since the blocking would “only last some 30 days”, there is no such danger.