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According to polls, Catalonia might be essential to ensure the absolute majority to the People’s Party (PP) or to save the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) from getting its worst results ever. The Socialists risk loosing more than a third of its seats in Catalonia while the PP, far from winning in Catalonia, could get its best results. Catalan nationalists ‘Convergència i Unió’, who are the third largest group in the Spanish Parliament, could win the elections in Catalonia, ending the ten Socialist Party victories in a row in these elections.

The Debate on the State of the Nation ended at the Catalan Parliament with the approval of several resolutions. After three days of debate, the resolutions were voted on Friday. One of them condemns the way in which the Spanish Constitution amendment was negotiated and passed, as it did not take into account parties that participated in the Constitution drafting and approval, and it also interferes with the financial autonomy of Catalonia. Another motion demands the Catalan Government to present the budget for 2012 before October 10th next.

After the presentation of the Catalan Government’s budget proposal at the Catalan Parliament, opposition parties criticised its content and the lack of debate on the subject. The Catalan Government needs support from opposition MPs or at least their abstention to approve the budget, which foresees a 2.66% deficit for 2011. The Spanish Vice President for Economy Elena Salgado insists that the mechanisms of deficit control “will be strictly implemented”.

'Convergència i Unió' (CiU) increases its vote share across Catalonia and becomes the leading party in number of votes. The large victory backs the Catalan Government’s controversial austerity measures. The Catalan Government and Barcelona City Council will be run by the same party, CiU. The Catalan Socialist Party loses large cities and 22% of its votes across the country. The People’s Party becomes the third party and wins in Badalona with a discourse focused on illegal immigration. ERC loses around a third of its votes but other pro Catalan independence parties gain support. The xenophobic and extreme right PxC remains marginal but increases its base and enters the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. The turnout was 55%, one point higher than in 2007. The null or spoilt vote multiplied its share by three but remains marginal.

The Catalan Parliament voted on Artur Mas’ investiture today, but an absolute majority was needed. Mas only received the 62 votes of his group MPs. The other 6 parties voted “no”. The next voting will be on Thursday, the 23rd of December, when only a simple majority will be needed. It is expected that some parties will abstain to facilitate Mas' investiture.

As expected, Núria de Gispert became the first woman to chair the Catalan Parliament, which has its origins in the 13th Century and is one of the oldest Parliaments in the world. The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) holds 4 of the 7 positions within the Bureau, including the chair. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) has 2 posts and the Catalan People’s Party (PPC), 1. The 4 smaller parties were not represented in the Bureau.

The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition, ‘Convergència i Unió’ (CiU) wins. The Centre-Right forces get a clear majority in the Catalan Parliament. The governing Left-Wing parties collapse. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) gets the worst results in history, which could be fatal for Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero future’s re-election. The speech on immigration control, the economic crisis and Spanish identity gives the Catalan People’s Party (PPC) their best results ever in Catalonia. Catalan Nationalist forces globally increase their absolute majority, despite the collapse of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC). A new populist independence party ‘Solidaritat per la Independència’ (SI), former FC Barcelona’s President Joan Laporta’s party, enters into the Parliament. The Anti-Catalan Nationalist Party ‘Ciudadanos’ (C’s) maintains its 3 seats. The Catalan Green Socialist Party (ICV-EUiA) loses 2 seats.

Exit polls predict that Artur Mas, CiU’s leader, will very likely be able to govern alone, with between 63-66 seats. The Catalan Socialist Party may collapse, losing more than 10 seats and getting between 24 and 27 seats. The parties in the 3-party governing coalition are losing a lot of support. The Catalan People’s Party (PPC) may become the 3rd force, with 15-17 seats. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) may drop to between 11-13 seats. The Catalan Green Socialist Party (ICV-EUiA) may loose some support and get between 8 and 10 seats. The former FC Barcelona’s President Joan Laporta’s party (SI) could enter into the Parliament with 3-4 seats. The Anti-Catalan Nationalism Party (C’s) may get the same results with around 3 seats. The Right-Wing Catalan Independence Party, Reagrupament (Rgt), could be at the limit of entering into the Parliament with 1 seat.

The 7 years of the Left-Wing 3-party coalition may end on Sunday and CiU may once again rule the Catalan Government. Spain is looking carefully at these elections: the Socialists may collapse, the People’s Party may win seats thanks to its anti-immigration speech, and if CiU wins, they could help Zapatero to pass economic reforms. Europe should look at these elections: the future of the Euro is in Zapatero’s hands, but Zapatero may be in CiU’s. The campaign finished at midnight on Friday. Saturday is the “reflexion day”, when campaigning is forbidden. Sunday the 28th of November is Election Day. The parties’ candidates with Parliamentary representation presented their projects to CNA for a foreign audience.

The only one? Not anymore. Last night, the televised debate among the leaders of the 6 parties with parliamentary representation ended in a compromise for a second debate tomorrow, this time only between the 2 main leaders: Artur Mas from the CiU and the most likely new president, and the incumbent, José Montilla from PSC, who will likely be defeated according to the polls.

Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds – Esquerra Unida i Alternativa (ICV-EUiA) is a coalition of several political forces, which has 2 main pillars. The main one is the ICV, which is an Eco-Socialist party, and strongly Catalanist. The second one is EUiA, which is a coalition of small pro-Communist parties, linked to the Spanish Izquierda Unida. ICV-EUiA has been in the 3-party governing coalition for the last 7 years. Its current leader is Joan Herrera.

Artur Mas, José Montilla, Joan Puigcercós, the PPC, ICV-EUiA, CiU, Ciutadans, the Catalan Parliament, the Catalan Government… What is all this? Those not familiar with the Catalan political ecosystem maybe become easily lost. Here you will find some keys to better understand what’s going on these days.

On Sunday the 28th of November, Catalans will elect their new Parliament, which will then elect the new Catalan Government for the next 4-year term. These elections are very likely to change the Catalan political landscape, becoming a barometer of support for the Socialist party in Catalonia. The elections may have consequences for all of Spain. All the polls point to the main opposition force, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition Convergència i Unió (CiU), as just below the absolute majority.