elections

After weeks of negotiations, the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing pro-independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, have still not reached an agreement on whether to call early elections and whether to run together or separately. These elections should become a ‘de facto’ referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain. On Friday, it seemed they were close to an agreement, but in the evening it was obvious they had still some issues to discuss. During the weekend representatives from both the CiU and the ERC called on each other to close the deal. However, on Monday, the deal was yet to be closed and the main civil society organisations behind the massive pro-independence demonstrations from 2012, 2013 and 2014 are starting to lose their patience. Furthermore, the rest of the political parties have been highly critical of the long weeks of talks.

The left-wing pro-independence party ERC has accepted the last proposal put forward by the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, to run separately in early elections but with a large part of civil society representatives and independents being included in the President’s candidacy. However, the ERC has not ruled out the possibility of also including civil society representatives in its own list and wants elections in March. Any such elections should become a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. The Catalan President accused the ERC of “twisting” his proposal. Furthermore, sources of the Catalan Government criticised the ERC’s “intransigency” because “they have not moved from their initial stance” of running separately in elections taking place this winter. Mas initially wanted to run together but was not particularly in a hurry to call the elections. 

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, has sent a letter to the President of the opposition left-wing pro-independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, in which he has proposed 3 different formulas for early elections being transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain. Mas and Junqueras disagree about whether to run together or separately, and also whether these elections should be to firstly negotiate independence with Spain and later ratify independence through a referendum, or to directly proclaim independence and draft a Constitution. On Friday, after weeks of negotiations between Mas, Junqueras and the main civil society organisations backing independence, the Catalan President is making a public move to unblock the current situation, which is discouraging many pro-independence supporters. 

Josep Maria Bartomeu, President of FC Barcelona, held a press conference on Wednesday to announce early elections to be held at the end of the current season. Bartomeu also confirmed that he will run. “We believe that calling elections is the best option to lower the tension that is currently present at the club”, he stated. Last week’s confirmation of FIFA’s ban on FC Barcelona by the CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) was the last ingredient in a storm that has raged for months. FIFA will prevent the Catalan club from signing any new player until Christmas 2015 as a sanction for signing underage players from foreign countries. Following the CAS’ definitive verdict, Barça’s Football Director, Andoni Zubizarreta, was fired earlier this week.

Public employees of the Catalan Executive will receive their full salary in 2015. For the last 3 years, they have earned some 7% less in order to meet the strict deficit targets unilaterally imposed by the Spanish Government. The Catalan Government has approved a decree on Tuesday setting the full salary’s restitution, but the measure will not be “100% guaranteed until the new budget for 2015 is approved”, stated the Catalan Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing independence party ERC are currently negotiating this new budget, although the ERC has thus far been reluctant to support it. The CiU and the ERC have been negotiating for the last few weeks over whether to call early elections in order to transform them into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence, and whether they should run together or not. The 2015 budget is also part of this debate.

For the first time in the last two years, the number of people opposing independence from Spain would be more than those supporting the separation, according to an opinion poll released on Friday by the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO). 45.3% of the interviewees would oppose independence, while 44.5% would support it. According to the CEO’s Director, Jordi Argelaguet, these figures indicate “a technical draw”, since there is only a 9-person difference out of the 1,000 interviews carried out in early December, following the 9 November’s symbolic self-determination vote. However, the figures show two important trends: the higher mobilisation of citizens opposing independence and the slight decrease of support for independence. 7.5% of those interviewed would be undecided and 2.8% preferred not to answer the question.

The left-wing independence party ERC has joined the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU in allowing the Catalan Government’s budget bill for 2015 to continue its parliamentary approval process. Although critical of the budget proposal, the ERC backed the centre-right coalition in the hope that Catalan President and CiU leader Artur Mas will call early elections in the coming weeks, which are likely to be transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. The CiU and the ERC have a different approach towards any such elections and have been negotiating for a number of weeks. The approval of the 2015 budget has become an additional element of the talks, a fact which has been criticised by the other parties. On Thursday, the CiU and the ERC rejected the full amendments filed by the rest of opposition parties. 

The Spanish Government has welcomed a European Council decision which emphasises that "territorial integrity" is "an essential function" of each Member State. Furthermore, the EU institution will "respect" the "national identities of Member States inherent in their fundamental political and constitutional structures, inclusive of regional and local self-government". Such statements are included within a more general declaration about respecting the rule of law within the European Union, issued after recent events in Hungary. However, the Spanish Government managed to include such references to the document, in the middle of the debate about Catalonia's potential independence from Spain and its continuity within the EU. EU Treaties would have to be reformed to include Catalonia, but they would also have to be reformed in order to kick it out of the EU, since there are no specific provisions on this case.

The left-wing independence party ERC announced it will not block the Catalan Government's budget proposal for 2015, which should allow the bill to continue its parliamentary approval process. ERC's decision comes within the negotiations with the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU to run together or separately in early Catalan elections that should be transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. The CiU is missing 18 MPs to get the absolute majority and it needs the votes or the abstention from at least one other group to approve next year's budget. The ERC and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) are the only two groups that could enable the bill to pass, although they do not seem willing to do so. By not blocking the budget, the ERC is "facilitating" an agreement with the CiU. However, they are expecting the new budget not to be approved in the end because early elections should be called, although they "do not rule out any scenario".

Miquel Iceta, First Secretary of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), proposed his road map for the coming two years: no early elections and broad Constitutional Reform to better fit Catalonia into a federal Spain. On Wednesday Iceta held his own conference after those of the Catalan President and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, and the left-wing independence party (ERC), Oriol Junqueras. While the two others support independence, Iceta opposes it. He totally rejected the road maps proposed by Mas and Junqueras and insisted on the need to work "on the real problems of Catalans", such as poverty, unemployment, budget cuts in public healthcare, etc. However, the PSC leader admitted that "there will be no solution without a vote", but "a real vote". Iceta said that before breaking up with Spain, Catalans should be allowed to vote on "a new agreement" to remain in Spain. In order to facilitate such a new agreement, he proposed that the Spanish Government cancel part of the Autonomous Communities' debt.

Meetings between pro-independence politicians and civil society organisations are being held and will increase over the next few days, in order to explore the possibilities of forming a shared electoral list to run in early Catalan Parliament elections, which should be transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence from Spain. However there are two main obstacles for this scenario. Firstly, the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, is reluctant to call early elections if a shared candidature with the left-wing pro-independence party ERC - open to many independents - is not formed. Secondly, the President of the ERC, Oriol Junqueras, wants to run separately, highlighting the need to debate on social issues and corruption as well. This Wednesday, Mas and Junqueras met and have agreed to increase their talks in the coming days.

Early elections at the Catalan Parliament transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence is the only formula left to allow citizens to hold a self-determination vote. However, parties supporting self-determination, and particularly those supporting independence, do not share the same approach about how to ensure it will become a true plebiscite, nor on the exact steps that should follow if they were to win.  The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, wants to run through a broad single list grouping many ideologies together. However, left-wing parties are against this formula and want a debate on social issues and corruption. Both approaches pretend to be the one that guarantees the highest number of pro-independence votes. At present, parties and civil society organisations are holding intense talks to explore a consensual way out.

The President of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has explained his own road map to allow citizens to vote on independence from Spain and build a new state. Junqueras proposed running in immediate early elections through different pro-independence lists with shared elements and opened to independents, in order to respect diversity. The ERC leader differed from the proposal of running through a single electoral list made by the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas. Junqueras insisted on the need to answer to the social and economic concerns of many citizens in addition to those about independence. Should they altogether obtain a majority, the different pro-independence candidatures should form a national unity government and start building the new state from day one. He particularly emphasised the need to include those who did not voted for independence in the constituent process, which should be finally ratified in a referendum.

Once again the Spanish Government and the People’s Party (PP) have closed the door to making any concession to Catalonia with the objective of reducing support for independence. On Saturday, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, travelled to Catalonia for the first time since last May’s European Elections to participate in a closed-door PP event. Rajoy insisted on affirming that November 9’s symbolic self-determination vote had been “a failure” of the pro-independence forces. He accused the Catalan President of “heading nowhere” and of ignoring “2 out of 3 Catalans”, a figure arrived at by adding all the people who did not vote on November 9. Once again, Rajoy refused any negotiation or to make any concession. On Monday, the PP’s leader in Catalonia, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, stated that “Catalonia’s solution does not include third ways [built] with concessions”. Furthermore, the PP asked for a greater presence of the Spanish Government in Catalonia, which means recentralization.

The Emeritus Professor at the University of Amsterdam and political scientist, Meindert Fennema, spoke with the CNA about the Catalan independence process. According to this recognised expert in populism throughout Europe, the "Catalan process is not populist". Fennema emphasised that the origins of European populism and the Catalan independence movement are rooted in different historical contexts, and pointed out that the two have indisputable differences. One great contrast is that "populism started as an anti-immigrant movement", while "for historical reasons, Catalans have always embraced their immigrants". Moreover, the Catalan attitude towards government and the European Union integration is totally different than those adopted in populist stances, he highlighted. Furthermore he asserted that the claims that the Catalan independence process is a populist movement are false.