economy

The President of the employer’s association Cercle Català de Negocis (CCN), Albert Pont, stated that part of the Spanish Government’s debt is “odious” and therefore Catalonia cannot recognise this “illegitimate debt”. However, Pont underlined the “willingness” to pay for the proportionate share of the rest of the debt, which should be calculated “item by item”. In an exclusive interview with the CNA, he denounced a public debt generated “for the benefit of no more than a few companies” that “provide works, services and infrastructures” for the Spanish Government. “If Spain does not recognise the independence of Catalonia, Spain should assume its debt completely and the Catalan Government its own debt”, he warned. In addition, Pont denounced the fact that the Spanish Executive is taking away “between €16 billion and €18 billion” from Catalonia each year, a fiscal deficit amounting to “around 9%” of the Catalan GDP. “The IMF already established that fiscal deficits exceeding 4% of the GDP of a territory amounted to colonial relations”, he highlighted. Besides, he explained that “the average custom duty is between 1.4% and 1.5%”. However, Pont ruled out this possibility since a “political solution” will be reached to keep Catalonia within the EU.

The economic crisis and especially the recession starting in 2009 have contributed to the growing weight of the underground economy in Catalonia and in Spain, according to a study presented on Wednesday by the Spanish Ministry of Finance’s Union of Technicians (Gestha). This study is entitled ‘L’economia submergida passa factura. Avançament del frau a Espanya durant la crisi’ (Underground economy takes its toll. Growing fraud in Spain during the crisis) and is led by Jordi Sardà, a professor at Tarragona’s Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV). It reveals that according to the latest figures (from 2012) the underground economy has absorbed 24.6% of Catalonia’s GDP, hiding €47.36 billion. In 2009 the weight of illegal activity amounted to 22.3 %, meaning that between 2009 and 2012 some €4.6 billion were hidden.

The Catalan business community is deeply annoyed with the Spanish Government for not publishing transparent data on Catalonia’s fiscal contribution to the rest of Spain and therefore not recognising the fiscal deficit. The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, was supposed to issue the so-called fiscal balances last December but their publication was inexplicably delayed. Last Friday, in late January, Montoro announced the fiscal balances would no longer be calculated and published in the present form; instead, he would publish in March the “regionalised public figures” stating the costs of public services per citizen because the fiscal balances were “incomplete and incoherent”. However, on Tuesday, the Minister recognised that they were “correct” but “wrongly used” to support Catalan independence claims.

Last year, Catalonia was the leading Autonomous Community in Spain for foreign tourism spending, which generated €14.02 billion, 13.4 % more than in 2012, according to the Tourist Expenditure Survey (EGATUR) of the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism. The average spending per stay in Catalonia amounted to €903 per foreign visitor, 4.9% more than in 2012, while the daily spending was set at €120 per person, 1.4 % more than the previous year. Catalonia accounted for 23.7 % of foreign tourism spending in Spain, which reached €59.08 billion. Besides, tourism spending grew more in Catalonia than in any other Autonomous Communities in Spain and is well above the Spanish 9.6 % average increase over the previous year.

According to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE), the 49.26 million overnight stays registered in 2013 amounted to a 1.82% increase on the previous year, thanks to a 5.34% rise for foreign guests. On the other hand, due to the economic crisis, the number of overnight stays for Spaniards fell by 6.82%. The number of visitors who stayed in one of Catalonia’s 2,122 hotels in 2013 reached a total of 16.240 million people, an increase of 0.02 % over 2012. The number of foreign guests also increased, by 3.62 %, while the number of Spanish visitors fell by 5.66 %. Catalan hotels registered a 55.55% occupancy rate, above the 55.51% posted in 2012.

Catalonia ended 2013 with an unemployment rate of 22.26% and a total of 820,400 people unemployed, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA) for the fourth quarter. In late 2013 Catalonia registered 64,700 fewer unemployed people compared to the last quarter of 2012. At Spanish level, the unemployment rate was set at 26.03 %, with a total of 5,896,300 unemployed people. At the end of 2013, there were 69,100 fewer unemployed than in the last quarter of 2012. Furthermore, between September and December there were 8,400 fewer jobseekers in Spain. In the same 3-month period there were 20,100 fewer jobseekers in Catalonia. The Catalan Deputy Minister for Employment stated that these figures were “the best since the start of the crisis” since “for the first time, the number of employed has increased and the number of unemployed has decreased”.

In 2013, Catalonia was the first tourist destination in Spain. It received15.6 million foreign visitors, meaning 25.7 % of the total number of international tourists in Spain (one in four). The figure represents an 8% increase over the previous year. The Balearic Islands were in second place, welcoming over 11 million tourists (18.3%), a 7.2% increase. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, stressed that tourist spending also increased significantly, generating €14.2 billion in 2013, that is to say 14% more than the previous year. At Spanish level, the number of foreign visitors reached a new record: Spain welcomed 60.6 million tourists in 2013, making it the third favourite travel destination in the world, behind France and the United States.

Rating agency Moody’s warns that Catalan independence from Spain might have “a major adverse impact on Spain’s economy” but also that “Catalonia itself could also suffer” if the break–up is not friendly. In a forecast about the Spanish economy published this week, the New York-based company analyses potential risks that might damage the expected economic recovery. Moody’s praise the high level of exports, based on a higher competitiveness reached by lowering salaries. However, the report, signed by Zach Witton, highlights that “debt reduction by households and businesses, elevated unemployment, the housing market correction, and tight credit will drag on growth”.

By the end of December, Catalonia registered a 0.2% annual inflation rate, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). This figure is the lowest recorded in Catalonia at the end of the year since December 1978, when the INE started providing figures for each of the Autonomous Communities. In the whole of Spain, prices ended 2013 posting an annual inflation rate of 0.3%, the lowest registered on a month of December since 1961; the very year such figures started being released. However, these are not the lowest annual inflation rates, since the record was set in July 2009, with a -0.9% annual rate in Catalonia. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.2% in December in Catalonia on November figures and by 0.1% in the whole of Spain. The price increase was mostly due to the growth in oil prices, while leisure, culture and clothing helped minimising the general increase.

In the coming weeks, the management of Volkswagen Group should decide where to produce its latest SUV model, designed in the SEAT Technical Centre in Martorell (Greater Barcelona) and featuring two versions, one for the Catalan brand and the other one for Skoda. The President of the SEAT Workers Committee in Martorell, Matias Carnero, argued that the Catalonia-based factory was the most competitive to produce the vehicle. These past weeks, some sources have asserted that Martorell’s main rival, the Skoda plant in the Czech Republic, would ultimately be chosen. Indeed, it is believed that the President of SEAT Jürgen Stackmann hinted at such a fact in several internal meetings. However, Matias Carnero insisted that the Martorell factory had never been completely ruled out.

The “very moderate” growth expectations for 2014, between 0.5% and 1%, will make it “difficult” for the unemployment rates to fall below the current 27%. This was the conclusion of the 2014 Economic Report of Barcelona-based ESADE, one of the top business schools in the world. The main author of the report stressed that this “slow and costly” growth should contribute only in a “very reduced” way to creating new jobs in 2014. However, he also explained that the Labour Market Reform would have positive effects on employment levels in the medium and long term. The study indicates that consumption in 2014 will “remain restricted” due to the high unemployment rates and reduced wages.

Next to the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (who went to the White House), the President of the United States, Barack Obama, did not talk about Catalonia despite being asked about it directly by a journalist. Obama did not repeat the formula expressed by other international leaders – it is Spain’s internal matter – but instead preferred to avoid the issue. He did not explicitly back the Spanish PM, despite the fact that Rajoy had stated, only a few minutes earlier, that “Catalonia’s independence will not happen”. Rajoy’s meeting with Obama and the following press conference at the White House were also controversial because the Spanish Government banned several media that were covering the trip and only allowed one Catalan newspaper to attend it.

The Catalan Government has welcomed the 138 proposals issued by a council of business associations, trade unions, academic experts and leading professionals, who form the so-called ‘Agreement for the Industry’ platform. The President of the Catalan Executive, Artur Mas, stated that those proposals are “a possible seed” for a broader agreement: a National Pact for the Industry that will define the priorities and main guidelines of Catalonia’s industrial policy for the next decade. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment said that the 138 proposals coincide with “between 70 and 80%” of the Executive’s industrial policies. However he pointed out that the Government couldn’t bring all of them on board for budget or jurisdiction limitations.

The Catalan Government will file several formal demands for payment of the €2.02 billion the Spanish Government legally owes Catalonia from the 2008-2013 period. The money represents 1% of Catalonia’s GDP or 7% of the Catalan Government’s budget. According to the Statute of Autonomy, which was approved by the Spanish Parliament and came into force in 2006, the Spanish Government was obliged to invest a percentage equal to or higher than Catalonia’s share of Spain’s GDP between 2007 and 2013 in order to compensate for an historical lack of infrastructure investment. If it was not doing so, the Spanish Executive had to compensate Catalonia financially. The measure was adopted after exhaustive negotiations and was essential to the approval of this law by the Catalan people through a binding referendum. However, the Spanish Government never honoured it. Madrid compensated Catalonia for the lack of investment in 2007, but not for the remaining years.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, insisted this Tuesday he will organise a self-determination vote within the legal framework on the date agreed upon by four political groups 3 weeks ago. In a press conference following the first Cabinet Meeting of 2014, Mas ruled out the possibility of making changes in the government he chairs on the short-term, after speculations that the Catalan Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) could sit in the Cabinet, formed by members from the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) and independents. In addition, he identified “a cross slope” in the economic, social and political context, referring to a slight recovery, after 6 “terrible and fearsome years”.