deficit

The Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, “regretted” on Tuesday evening the “confusion” about having announced in October he was cancelling a €1.76 billion transfer to the Catalan Government. Without this scheduled payment, the Catalan Executive is having serious problems to fund the 1.58% deficit approved for 2013. “These things can happen” said Montoro. In late October – 10 weeks before the end of the year – the Spanish Minister announced that the Catalan Government would not receive the €1.76 billion requested from the Liquidity Fund for the Autonomous Communities (FLA) since this money would be used by the Service Provider Fund to pay for arrear invoices. A week ago, the Catalan Government confirmed Montoro would transfer the €1.76 billion.

The Catalan Executive says it has the Spanish Government’s commitment to send the €1.76 billion that the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, announced in late October would not be transferred. This money corresponds to the loan to fund the Catalan Government’s deficit target increase from 0.7% to 1.58% in 2013 approved in July by the Spanish Executive. However, in late October – 10 weeks before the end of the year, Montoro said that this amount would be deducted from the fund to pay the Catalan Government’s service providers. This meant that Catalonia was missing €1.76 billion to fund public services and departments for the last part of the year. Negotiations during the last 4 weeks have modified Montoro’s October decision.

The Catalan Government has presented its budget proposal for 2014, which posts a 1% deficit, representing a 35.5% annual reduction and amounting to €1.98 billion, in line with the 2014 deficit targets imposed by the Spanish Government. The budget prioritises healthcare, education and social policies, which represent 71% of the total non-financial spending. Non-financial spending grows by 0.2% and reaches €20.30 billion, while the total spending amounts to €29.31 billion. The Catalan Finance Minister stressed that spending had not been reduced this year since in the last 3 years it had already dropped by 22%. Budget cuts “have reached their limit”, as otherwise “social cohesion” and “the Welfare State” would “be at risk” he said. In 2014 the Catalan Executive will spend the same per inhabitant as it was doing in 2004 taking into account inflation (€1,901).The adjustment for 2014 focuses on increasing revenue by €3.2 billion, mostly through new taxes (€910 million) and the sales of assets and privatisations (€2.32 billion). On top of this, the Catalan Government forecasts a 0.9% economic growth for 2014, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%).

The Catalan Government has forecasted a 0.9% economic growth for 2014 in its budget proposal for next year, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%). The positive figures are mostly due to the strength of the export sector – which will continue to improve its results. The main factor slowing down growth will be the internal demand, which will continue to decrease although it will do so at a lower pace. In addition, the Catalan Executive believes the unemployment rate will decrease and reach 23.1% by the end of the year. It is expected 2013 will end with a 23.7% unemployment rate, higher than the 22.6% rate registered at the end of 2012.

The Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, considered that “to reform the Constitution in order to satisfy those who will not be satisfied”, referring to the citizens supporting Catalonia’s independence from Spain, who represent more than 50% of Catalans according to polls, would be “a great mistake”. Answering a question from the former Catalan President José Montilla, Rajoy stated before the Senate that “Spain and national sovereignty are not negotiable”. However, despite these red lines, Rajoy affirmed that his attitude towards Catalonia is “to talk” in order to find a negotiated way out. More than 80% of Catalans would like to hold a self-determination vote in Catalonia.

In the last few days, there has been an attempt to build bridges between Catalonia and Spain, despite the visible increase of tension between the two governments. In public the Catalan and Spanish Executives are heading for a collision but at the same time discreet manoeuvres explore alternative ways out. This Tuesday, the ‘number 2’ of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – Josep Antoni Duran I Lleida acknowledged that he met with the Spanish Prime Minister and leader of the People’s Party (PP) Mariano Rajoy on the 16^th October. Besides, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, met on Friday with the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) to talk about a constitutional change. Today, the Spokesperson of the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, stated that Catalonia is waiting for an offer from the Spanish establishment. Although “there is no deadline” for this offer, the self-determination process will not be waiting for it, although if it arrives it will be studied.

During the first two thirds of 2013, the Catalan Government deficit amounted to €2.05 billion, equivalent to 1.06% of Catalonia’s GDP. The figure corresponds to 67% of the 1.58% deficit target imposed by the Spanish Government to the Catalan Executive for the whole year 2013. Meanwhile, the entire Spanish public sector posted a deficit corresponding to 5.07% of Spain’s GDP in the same period, although data from municipalities is still pending to be included. The figure already represents 78% of the total 6.5% deficit target that the European Union allowed Spain for the entire year 2013.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas is the most senior public figure in Catalonia, just after the King of Spain and the Spanish Prime Minister. However, at Thursday’s scheduled dinner with the main Catalan business association ‘Foment’ and the Spanish Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, a last-minute change in the protocol put Mas in second place. The Catalan President considered that “conditions had changed” and as a protest he announced he was not going to the dinner. Instead, the Catalan Minister for Business and Employment was representing him. ‘Foment’ has been ambivalent regarding Catalonia’s self-determination process, although it supports the claim for finding a negotiated way out of the current political situation by organising a legal referendum.

The Spanish Government has sent a Budget Plan to the European Commission, following the new rules giving Brussels greater control on Member State finances. The plan’s scope includes all government levels in Spain. In the plan, the Spanish Government imposes a global budget adjustment of €8 billion on the Autonomous Community governments, including Catalonia’s, to be achieved within the next two years. €2.14 billion would come from increasing revenue next year, since Madrid considers that the Autonomous Communities can still increase their own taxes, particularly those linked to the environment. €1.93 billion would come from further budget cuts. This would total €4.07 billion in 2014, which would roughly be repeated in 2015.

The Catalan Government will receive €1.7 billion less from the Spanish Liquidity Fund (FLA) in 2013 than had been previously foreseen. The news was announced by the Spanish Government in mid-October, with only 10 weeks left before the end of the year. Madrid has justified the decision by linking the FLA to the plan to lend money to public bodies in order to enable them to pay suppliers. The money to pay suppliers will now be deducted from the FLA, changing the previous conditions. As a consequence, the Catalan Government will not be able to fund the 1.58% deficit it had allowed, since the FLA is its only access to liquidity. Now, Catalonia will only have money for the previously-foreseen 0.7% deficit. The Catalan Executive feels “tricked” as “it is not understandable that the Spanish Government agrees to a greater deficit and later cannot fund this deficit”.

Nils Schmid, Vice President of Baden-Württemberg and regional Minister for Finance and the Economy, said in an exclusive interview with the CNA that Catalans are the ones who have to decide whether they want to remain within Spain or to become independent. This process should “of course […] be based on a referendum”. The Leader of the Social-Democrats (SPD) in this state also added that his party is proposing to include the possibility of holding referendums at national level in Germany, which is currently not envisaged by the German Constitution. However, he “cannot imagine” an independence referendum for Baden-Württemberg. On other issues, Schmid pointed out that “fiscal consolidation is not enough” and has to come with “structural reforms” and policies to stimulate growth. He also welcomed Catalans who are going to Germany to find job opportunities.

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, and the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) agreed on speeding up the process of building “state structures” and drafting the “most social budget” in Catalonia’s recent history. In addition, Mas criticised the ‘third way’ between independence from Spain and the current situation proposed by the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and CiU’s ‘number 2’, saying that Catalans “have been trying” this way “for the last 100 years” and “it has never worked”. Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP) and Ciutadans (C’s) called on Mas to stop the self-determination process. However, the main Catalan parties, from left to right and representing 77% of the parliamentary seats, presented a common text supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination through a legal vote.

On the occasion of the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, called the Debate on General Policy, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, asked the political parties to work on a broad “triple agreement” on the exact date, question and legal framework for holding a self-determination vote. Furthermore, Mas stated that he wanted this agreement to be reached before the end of the year, in order to have the road paved for holding the vote in 2014. However, he did not say whether the question will be exclusively about Catalonia’s independence from Spain or whether a third way will also be included as an option. Besides, Mas re-affirmed his will to negotiate with the Spanish Government on the legal formula for organising a referendum. However, he also stressed that if Madrid completely rejects talks on holding a self-determination vote, there is nothing to negotiate on.

The ambulance service has gone on strike from Monday to Thursday because of a 9.2% drop in staff wages. However, the provision of basic services is guaranteed, such as emergencies – including accidents and intra-hospital journeys – and the transportation of oncology and haemodialysis patients with scheduled treatments. The Catalan Health Ministry and the trade union CCOO showed a disagreement on the strike’s success. According to the Catalan Government, the demonstration was only followed by 8% of the workers on its first day, while the CCOO stated that 90% of the non-essential services have not been provided. The owners of the ambulance providers announced significant salary reductions in July. After talks with unions and the mediation of the Catalan Labour Court, an agreement has not been reached to avoid the strike.

This coming 11^th of September – which is Catalonia’s National Day – pro-independence supporters have organised a gigantic human chain called the ‘Catalan Way Towards Independence’ that will cross Catalonia from North to South stretching 400 km and passing through some of the main cities, such as Barcelona, Girona and Tarragona. After having organised the 1.5 million-strong demonstration of 2012, the civil society platform Catalan National Assembly is preparing a new massive demonstration that calls for independence from Spain. This year’s peculiar demonstration is inspired by the ‘Baltic Way’ of 1989, which gathered 2 million people forming a 670 km-long human chain crossing Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The ‘Baltic Way’ was organised exactly 24 years ago and issued a manifesto that read “a common European home can only by set up if all European nations are granted a free right to self-determination”.