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47.7% of Catalans would vote for independence while 42.4% would opt to keep the current status quo. This is the first time that ‘yes’ surpasses ‘no’ since 2014, when the 9-N symbolic vote on independence was held. Moreover, the percentage of those who don’t support Catalonia’s independence has dropped by 5 points, in comparison to the last poll released by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), in March 2016. The survey, run by the Government, also showed that governing cross-party list, pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sí’ would win the elections again, if they were called in the coming weeks, obtaining between 60 and 62 MPs in the Parliament; currently they hold 62 seats. Alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ would come second, nearly doubling the number of seats they got in the 27-S Catalan Elections. 

Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, accepted pro-independence radical left CUP’s demand to hold a meeting “in the coming days” in order to discuss Puigdemont’s approach to the vote of confidence. Indeed, the vote that the Catalan President will submit himself to in September is regarded differently by the two main pro-independence parties in the Parliament. While governing cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’ considers voting in favour of Puigdemont’s presidency and backing the budget for 2017 “indivisible”, CUP understands that renewing the confidence in Puigdemont is part of the agreed pro-independence roadmap but not necessarily linked to the bill. The Catalan President extended the invitation to other political forces as well.

Pro-independence forces, governing cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’ and radical left CUP, approved this Monday an agreed proposal which foresees the following steps to take on the roadmap towards Catalonia’s independence. The document establishes that the “Constitutive Process” will be divided into three stages: first there will be a participative process amongst the citizens, the second phase will imply passing the so-called three laws of disconnection, calling for new elections and writing the draft of the Catalan Constitution. At this point, the text mentions a “democratic unilateral mechanism which will allow to call for the Constitutive Assembly”, the body which will be responsible for writing the Catalan Constitution. The last stage will be a referendum to put this new Constitution to vote. 

The pro-independence parties in the Catalan Chamber, governing cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’ and radical left CUP, have expressed their differences regarding the vote of confidence on Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, which will be held in September. While ‘Junts Pel Sí’ consider voting in favour of Puigdemont’s presidency to imply backing the budget for 2017, CUP see things differently and stated that renewing the confidence in Puigdemont is part of the agreed pro-independence roadmap but not necessarily linked to the bill. The Catalan Government’s spokeswoman, Neus Munté, considers the budget an “indispensable tool” for the pro-independence roadmap to move forward.

Radical left pro-independence CUP have formally asked Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, to convene a summit at Catalan Government headquarters in order to agree on the terms of a unilateral referendum on independence. This is CUP’s preferred formula, since in view of the last Spanish Election results, they consider ultimately holding a referendum in Catalonia agreed with the Spanish State to be no longer possible. CUP has suggested inviting to this summit all groups which are for holding a referendum, meaning pro-independence cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’, alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ and also alternative left ‘En Comú Podem’, which is not represented in the Catalan Parliament but won the recent Spanish Elections in Catalonia. According to CUP, the unilateral referendum on independence should be “binding” and take place within a year.

Six of the 15 members of radical left pro-independence CUP’s national secretariat stepped down this Friday. In a joint letter, they reported “sectarian and Machiavellian attitudes” regarding the decision-making process which led to the failed investiture of former Catalan President, Artur Mas and also the anti-capitalists’ veto on the draft budget for 2016. The signers insisted that their decision is “irrevocable” and accused CUP of “moving away from the pro-independence strategy” assumed by the party’s programme. CUP’s national secretariat spokesman, Xevi Generó, announced that the process to choose new members will start next Monday.

The possibility of holding a unilateral referendum on independence has not been rejected by the Catalan Government. According to Catalan Government Spokeswoman, Neus Munté, this option will be considered as long as it has “total democratic legitimacy” and “international homologation”. However, Munté emphasised that the roadmap towards independence, which foresaw an 18^-month term of office and constitutive elections afterwards, is still “in force”. “We don’t give up on the pro-independence roadmap but we are open, of course, to listening to all those options which would go in the same direction”, she stated. The possible celebration of a unilateral referendum on independence was first raised by radical left pro-independence CUP in the last weeks and it has been brought into the spotlight of the Spanish electoral campaign by several Catalan parties.

The Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, rebuffed on Thursday a request by the radical left-wing party CUP to “rebuild bridges” of trust after their veto of the 2016 draft budget bill. “The best bridges are those that you do not burn”, he said in a plenary session in the Catalan Parliament. The Catalan Government, led by the pro-independence coalition ‘Junts pel Sí’, expected the parliamentary support of the anti-capitalists following an agreement between the two parties in January that saw former Catalan President Artur Mas stepping aside and Puigdemont taking office. But CUP presented an amendment to the budget bill, the most important law of the parliamentary term, thus making it impossible for the Government to pass it. Following this, Puigdemont announced he will submit himself to a vote of confidence in September. CUP MP Mireia Boya said that the pro-independence forces should “rebuild bridges” from “today”, adding that the anti-capitalists feel “responsible but not guilty” for the current situation. Meanwhile, sources close to the Government suggested to the CNA that Puigdemont will use the summer to widen support for his government and depend less on CUP.

CUP’s veto on the budget for 2016 has provoked not only the extension of the bill for 2015 but also other major political consequences. One of them is the vote of confidence that Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, announced he will submit himself to. “I trusted you and I defended you until the end”stated Puigdemont, addressing radical left pro-independence CUP and added that the lefties “let down the hopes of millions of people”. Puigdemont considers the conditions which led to the agreement between the pro-independence forces after the 27-S elections to “have now changed”and therefore it will be up to the Parliament to decide whether to restore confidence in the current Government or call for new elections. “We can’t continue like this, we go nowhere with such a volatile basis”, he admitted.

Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont considers pro-independence radical left CUP’s veto on the bill for 2016 to “mark a turning point” and assumes that the stability agreement reached between pro-independence forces CUP and cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’ is now broken. However, Puigdemont nuanced that this doesn’t mean that the current term of office is over but assured that from now on ‘Junts Pel Sí’ will rule in minority, with the 62 MPs they have in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament. During a meeting with the Catalan executive held this morning, right before the debate over the budget, Puigdemont stated that the bill for 2016 won’t be passed “at any price” and that the Government’s project is not “for sale” as the main goal continues to be achieving independence

The stability of the parliamentary term in office and the relationship between the Catalan Government and the radical left-wing party CUP are at risk after the latter decided on Tuesday to maintain its total opposition to the 2016 draft budget bill. The Catalan Vice President and Catalan Minister for Tax Office, Oriol Junqueras, said that the decision will have “extremely severe consequences” and that “social services” will be particularly affected. The Catalan Government spokeswoman, Neus Munté, warned that the stability of the current term was “hit” and regretted that CUP didn’t respect the agreement with the pro-independence cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’, the main party in the Parliament, through which they committed to “guarantee parliamentarian stability”. Munté also warned that CUP’s veto “will have consequences” but emphasised the government’s aim to “continue working to put Catalonia at the gates of independence”. CUP’s rejection of the bill, which they considered insufficient and still too “autonomic”, forces the Catalan Government to extend the 2015 budget.

Catalan Vice President and Catalan Minister for Economy and Tax Office, Oriol Junqueras “totally” rejected the idea that Catalonia will face new elections if pro-independence radical left CUP reject the draft budget for 2016 presented by the Government. In an interview with Catalunya Radio, he urged pro-independence cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’ and CUP to “make the most of the 72 seats majority in the Parliament” rather than thinking about potential new elections. Junqueras also refused to start negotiating with other groups in the Catalan Chamber if CUP keeps up their veto on the bill, as it would mean “renouncing the pro-independence roadmap”.

The draft budget for 2016 presented by Catalan Vice President and Catalan Minister for Economy and Tax Office, Oriol Junqueras, doesn’t have enough support to be passed by the Parliament. Although Junqueras described the budget as “realistic”and “socially committed”, pro-independence radical left CUP considered it insufficient and still too “autonomic”, and claimed that the draft didn’t “reflect the pro-independence declaration proposal”approved by the Catalan Chamber on the 9^th of November. Thus, CUP presented their veto and urged the Catalan Government to present a new draft which would include the anti-capitalists’ proposals, such as disobeying the deficit target imposed by the Spanish executive and carrying out a deeper reform of the tax system. Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, warned that in order to “complete the task”and put Catalonia “at the gates of independence”the Parliament should at least be allowed to process the budget. This Friday, Puigdemont accused CUP of being “destroyers”if they continue to be carried along by “ideological prejudices”and maintain their veto on the bill.

Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont together with Catalan Vice President and Minister for Economy, Oriol Junqueras met this Wednesday with radical left pro-independence CUP MPs, Anna Gabriel and Joan Garriga in order to discuss their differences over the draft budget presented by the Catalan Government. Puigdemont and Junqueras refused to go back on the budget proposal for 2016 despite CUP’s veto. “If we want to complete our task, the Parliament has to process the budget”, stated Puigdemont during the plenary session this morning. He insisted that it is necessary to agree on the numbers in order to move forward. On the other hand, the anti-capitalists reaffirmed their position and insisted on their veto. The CUP MPs warned during their meeting with the Catalan Government that “it would be nonsense to put the draft to vote because it won’t go any forward” and emphasised that the present proposal leaves “no room for negotiation”.

There won’t be any agreement on the draft budget for 2016 unless the Catalan Government presents a new proposal including radical left CUP’s “proposals, demands and points of view”. This is what CUP MP, Eulàlia Reguant stated this Tuesday after registering theamendment to the entire budget proposal that the Catalan Vice President and Minister of Economy, Oriol Junqueras, presented last week. One of the anti-capitalists’ demands is to disobey the Spanish Government deficit targets and promote “more ambitious” tax reforms. On the other hand, the Catalan Secretary for Economy, Pere Aragonès warned that it’s “necessary” to pass the budget in order to put Catalonia “at the gates of independence”.