ciutadans

If new elections were to be called in Catalonia today, the winner would be governing cross-party pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sí’, which would still have between 60 and 62 seats in the 135-seat Parliament. Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’, which is currently the main party in the opposition with 25 MPs would get between 15 and 21 seats. The highest increase according to a poll released this Friday would be for alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ (CSQP) which would get 19-20 MPs compared to the 11 seats it currently has in the Chamber. On the other hand, radical left pro-independence CUP would drop from 10 seats to 6-8. Regarding pro-independence support amongst Catalans, the poll shows a return to the tie situation which has been the most common result of the polls. Thus, 44.9% of Catalans would support independence, while 45.1% would vote against it.

The conservative People’s Party (PP) and the liberal Ciutadans sealed on Sunday an agreement that they hope will gain enough votes in the Spanish Congress to allow Mariano Rajoy to be appointed as Spanish president. The deal comes after a week of intense negotiations between the two parties and could put an end to an eight-month deadlock in Spain, which has been without a functioning government since December 2015. PP and C’s have agreed on a 150-point plan that includes economic, social and institutional measures. Amongst them, a controversial commitment to introduce a trilingual model in schools that would de facto suspend the current Catalan immersion system and frontal opposition to any kind of independence referendum.

The conservative People’s Party (PP) and liberal unionist Ciutadans (C’s) are negotiating in order to form a stable majority for a new government in Spain and Catalonia is one of the main issues on the table. The MP from Ciutadans Jorge Soler has confirmed that the so-called ‘Catalan package’ of demands from C’s to the PP includes changing the school model, even though education is a devolved power in Catalonia. The current school model has been in place for more than 30 years and is widely recognised by school teachers unions, associations and experts, as well as families. In Catalan schools, Catalan is the language of instruction in order to guarantee that all pupils end their studies knowing both Catalan, which not everyone learns at home, and Spanish, which is widely used both in the media and on the street. However, C’s has always campaigned against this system, saying that it discriminates against Spanish families that want their children to be taught in the Spanish language. That’s why they’re asking the PP to scrap the system and introduce a trilingual model with Spanish, English and Catalan. Some of the other ‘Catalan-package’ demands of C’s is a new fiscal system and the prioritisation of key infrastructure projects such as the Mediterranean Corridor. Both PP and C’s frontally reject a referendum on independence in Catalonia.

The spokesman in the Catalan Parliament of the liberal and unionist party Ciutadans, Carlos Carrizosa, said in an interview with the CNA that voters in Catalonia will have to go to the polls next year because, according to him, the current government will collapse. “This very unstable government has the support of an unreliable and dangerous ally, the CUP, and it will not be able to survive beyond 2017. There will be elections and their result will worsen”, he stated. In September last year, Junts pel Sí and CUP together achieved 48% of the vote. According to Carrizosa, they won’t be able to improve this result in a new election, and this will mark the beginning of the end of the independence process. The Catalan government roadmap towards independence, led by President Carles Puigdemont, already foresees the call of an early constituent election next year.

47.7% of Catalans would vote for independence while 42.4% would opt to keep the current status quo. This is the first time that ‘yes’ surpasses ‘no’ since 2014, when the 9-N symbolic vote on independence was held. Moreover, the percentage of those who don’t support Catalonia’s independence has dropped by 5 points, in comparison to the last poll released by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), in March 2016. The survey, run by the Government, also showed that governing cross-party list, pro-independence ‘Junts Pel Sí’ would win the elections again, if they were called in the coming weeks, obtaining between 60 and 62 MPs in the Parliament; currently they hold 62 seats. Alternative left alliance ‘Catalunya Sí que es Pot’ would come second, nearly doubling the number of seats they got in the 27-S Catalan Elections. 

Catalan Government Spokeswoman, Neus Munté stressed the need for the Spanish parties to reach an agreement to guarantee the governability of the State and added that it would be “terrible” to call for General Elections again. Munté stated that the Spanish Government has been “inactive” for many months and warned that not taking decisions has consequences for all citizens. Munté’s statements come on the same day that current Spanish President, Mariano Rajoy, started his round of talks after the 26-J Spanish Elections. This Tuesday he met with Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’, which came fourth in the last Elections and alternative left coalition ‘Unidos Podemos’, who were the third force in the Spanish Parliament.  

Liberal ‘Convergència’ (CDC) will be from now on named the ‘Catalan Democratic Party’. This is what 871 people voted for at this weekend’s 18^th Congress of the party, while 657 opted for the other final option, the ‘Catalan National Party’. The aim of the Congress was to reinvent CDC, which ruled in Catalonia together with Christian Democrats ‘Unió’ for nearly 30 years, and adapt the party to “the new challenges ahead”. The ‘Catalan Democratic Party’ is defined as a pro-independence party instead of sovereigntist, which CDC used to be. Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, celebrated that the new party “is at the Government’s, Parliament’s and Catalan society’s disposal” to help him achieve the task which he was entrusted with, that is to say putting Catalonia at the gates of independence.

Current Spanish President, Mariano Rajoy, stated that he “won’t renounce his right to rule” after his party, the Conservative People’s Party (PP) emerged victorious with 135 MPs from the Spanish Elections but without an absolute majority. Rajoy’s first choice is to reach an agreement with the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’ but admitted that “if this would not be possible” he is open to governing in minority with occasional support from these forces. He also opened the door to possible agreements with ‘Ciutadans’, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNB) and the Canarian Coalition (CC), which would give them 175 MPs, only one seat away from the absolute majority in the 350-seat Spanish Parliament. According to Rajoy’s agenda, “it will be essential” to reach an agreement within a month.

The Spanish Elections prove that Spain remains unchangeable, according to Catalonia’s pro-independence parties. “The only change possible is through building an independent and republican Catalonia”, stated Catalan Vice President and pro-independence ERC’s leader, Oriol Junqueras, in reference to alternative left ‘En Comú Podem’, who have repeatedly insisted on holding a referendum on independence agreed with Spain. In this vein, Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont noted that the possibility of ultimately holding a referendum “is not in good health” and lamented that “nothing has changed” in Spain. On the other hand, the leader of the PP and current Spanish President, Mariano Rajoy, celebrated his victory in Madrid and assured that his party “will defend all Spaniards”. The Conservative leader pointed out that “democrats and freedom” have won the election.

Alternative left coalition ‘En Comú Podem’ has won the 2016 Spanish Elections in Catalonia. The party, which has Barcelona mayor Ada Colau as its strongest asset, obtained 12 MPs, the same number of MPs as in the last Spanish Elections, held in December 2015. Pro-independence left-wing ERC also repeated the same results as 2015, with 9 seats and CDC, which ran under the name ‘Democràcia i Llibertat’ in the last Spanish Elections, also got the same result and obtained 8 MPs. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) added one seat to their 7 existing seats in the Spanish Parliament, the Conservative People’s Party (PP) got 6 MPs, one more than in the last Elections, and Spanish Unionist Ciutadans was the only party to lose a seat and has now 4 MPs. In the whole of Spain PP again won the elections and improved their results, with 137 MPs, 14 more than in December 2015. Thus, the political panorama in Catalonia and Spain remains the same as after the last Spanish Elections.

Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’ obtained 40 MPs in the last Spanish Elections, held in December 2015. This was the highest figure ever achieved by a Catalan party. Indeed, besides being one of the most fierce opponents to Catalonia’s push for independence and having denied Catalonia’s right for self-determination, this young party was born and raised in Catalonia and has a Catalan candidate running for Spanish President, Albert Rivera - two aspects which have been emphasised by the party during this recently started electoral campaign. In a press conference at CNA headquarters,‘Ciutadans’ candidate for Barcelona, Juan Carlos Girauta, also defended his condition of being Catalan and called for those “pro-independence supporters” who chose this option because they were “upset” with Spain, to vote for ‘Ciutadans’. “We want to explain to them the advantages of our project”, he said, which is “building a Spain which is worth it”. 

Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont considers pro-independence radical left CUP’s veto on the bill for 2016 to “mark a turning point” and assumes that the stability agreement reached between pro-independence forces CUP and cross-party list ‘Junts Pel Sí’ is now broken. However, Puigdemont nuanced that this doesn’t mean that the current term of office is over but assured that from now on ‘Junts Pel Sí’ will rule in minority, with the 62 MPs they have in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament. During a meeting with the Catalan executive held this morning, right before the debate over the budget, Puigdemont stated that the bill for 2016 won’t be passed “at any price” and that the Government’s project is not “for sale” as the main goal continues to be achieving independence

Spain’s Constitutional Court (TC) has approved the appeals presented by Spanish Unionist ‘Ciutadans’, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the Conservative Catalan People’s Party (PPC) in November in relation to the pro-independence declaration approved by the Parliament. The three parties presented writs of protection and considered that the pro-independence forces’ agreed declaration to start building a new country violated citizens’ right of participation and that of the parliamentary representatives, as the Spokesperson Bureau was convened before PPC constituted themselves as a parliamentary group. This Tuesday, the magistrates in the TC partially upheld the appeals. The content of the pro-independence forces’ agreed declaration was already suspended by the TC in December, and declared it unconstitutional and, therefore, invalid. 

The time for the main Spanish parties to continue negotiating and agree to form new government appears to be coming to an end. To explore if any of the candidates is likely to obtain the necessary support to be invested as new Spanish President, Philip VI announced a new round of meetings to take place on the 25^th and 26^th of April. If the formations fail to reach an agreement and the investiture deadlock continues, the Royal Household will “procced to the dissolution of both chambers”, the Spanish Parliament and the Senate, “and call for new elections within the terms established by the Spanish Constitution”. Conservative People’s Party (PP) leader, Mariano Rajoy, has been acting as Spanish President since the 20^th of December 2015, as elections showed a fragmented scenario, where none of the parties obtained an absolute majority nor achieved any agreement to form government.