catalan way

The pro-independence cross-party list for the forthcoming 27 September Catalan elections, which will be transformed into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence, will be symbolically closed by the last 3 Presidents of the Catalan Parliament and by the current Bayern Munich coach, Pep Guardiola. They will occupy the symbolic last 4 positions on the 85-name list for the Province of Barcelona, with one name for each of the 85 MPs aiming to be elected in this constituency, the main one of the 4 Catalan provinces. None of them stand a chance of being elected, as in order for one of them to earn a parliamentary seat citizens would have to vote almost exclusively for that particular list, which is very far from likely. However, their presence in the Junts pel Sí list (‘Together for the Yes’) is likely to be a magnet for attracting the support of a greater number voters. The candidature brings together the main civil society organisations supporting independence, Catalonia’s two largest parties right now and some other smaller political forces.

The Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) closed the door Monday on supporting a hypothetical specific economic agreement between Catalonia and Spain, similar to the specific fiscal pact already in existence for the Basque Country, which would recognise Catalonia’s “specificities”, strengthen its self-rule and better fund its institutions, public services and infrastructure. However, the PSOE did urge the Spanish Government “to update” the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme in order to improve the funding of Autonomous Communities such as Catalonia, calling for “a fairer and more equitable model”. A majority of Catalan society has been asking for such a fiscal agreement for many years, which would help reduce the chronic fiscal deficit while keeping solidarity with poorer regions.

The Spanish Minister of Justice, Rafael Català, proposed this week "to study a constitutional reform" that is very far from making any concession to Catalan claims and meet them halfway. In fact, it seems that the Spanish Government's real intentions are to consolidate the recentralisation of powers and cultural homogenisation undertaken in the last few years that have trimmed Catalonia's self-rule and attacked Catalan culture and language. The Spanish Justice Minister stated this week that he is ready to discuss a limited reform of Spain's Constitution that would not affect its core aspects – such as Spain's territorial model – and which would apparently only address secondary matters, such as the prevalence of men over women in the Crown's succession or the definition of the Spanish Government's exclusive powers. However, the aim is to put an end to the decentralisation trend that started in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

The Catalan GDP increased by 0.9% between April and June this year, which is a positive figure but slightly lower than the 1.1% rate registered during the first quarter. However, in annual terms, the Catalan economy grew by 3% in the year to June, which is more than the 2.6% annual growth registered in March. Such a high level of annual growth had not been registered since September 2007, before the financial crisis started. According to the Catalan Finance Ministry, the minor fall off in growth registered between April and June compared to the growth rate from January to March is due to the "extraordinary" 1.1% growth rate of the first quarter. The Ministry stressed that 0.9% growth is still a very positive rate and does not break the trend of the economic recovery, on the contrary proving its strength.

Real estate continues its positive trend and is gradually leaving behind the crisis the sector went through between 2008 and 2014. Housing sales have grown in Catalonia for the 9^th consecutive month in annual terms. This week, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) released the sales figures for the month of June 2015 and they show an 8.15% growth in Catalonia compared to June last year. It is the best figure for the month of June since 2010. Previously-owned properties are leading the market by a clear margin, with only 15% of sales being new builds. In Spain as a whole, housing sales have already seen 10 consecutive months of growth. In June, they increased by 17% on last year’s figures, with 78.3% of the properties sold having been previously owned.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has stated that the independence process will be officially launched if pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority of the MPs elected in the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, to be transformed into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence from Spain. Mas emphasised that during the last 3 years, Catalan parties have been trying to organise a legal and mutually-agreed vote but that the Spanish Government has not wanted to talk even about it, despite more than 1.5 million citizens demonstrating each year on the streets and the results of the previous Catalan elections of November 2012. However, Mas stated he would still “exchange the forthcoming elections for a mutually-agreed referendum”, but highlighted that the Spanish Government has only left the transformation of regular elections into a plebiscite for Catalans to freely and democratically vote on their future as a country, an option that Mas already identified as the last resort in 2013. Therefore, according to him, “in elections, MPs are counted”, “if we were having a referendum we would be counting votes, but this is not the case”, he stressed.

The Spanish Government has presented its budget for 2016 and once again its investment in Catalonia is very far from being in line with the Autonomous Community’s GDP or population share within Spain. According to the planned budget for next year presented this Tuesday (many months in advance for electoral reasons), the Spanish Government plans to allocate only 10.7% of its territorial investment to Catalonia, even though the Catalan economy represents 19% of Spain’s overall GDP and Catalans make up 16% of Spain’s population. The amount planned for 2016 is however a bit higher than that allocated for 2015, which was only 9.5% of Spain’s total, the lowest in many years and widely interpreted to have been in retaliation for independence claims. The amount for 2015 was €1,072.3 million and that for 2016 is €1,179.5 million, which means a 10% increase (+€107 million) but is still one of the lowest investments in decades, both in percentage and absolute terms. Nevertheless, the Madrid-based media has focused on this increase, presenting Catalonia as a clear winner and forgetting about the extremely low investment levels from 2015 and 2016.

The Catalan Government was one of 14 regional executives to sign the 'Under 2 Memorandum of Understanding' in May 2015 as part of a pact to reduce CO₂ emissions by 80-95% by 2050 among the signing territories. This goal is an effort to mitigate the worst effects of climate change coming from greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, the Catalan Government has been working toward improving energy efficiency and developing a greater supply of renewable energy through various initiatives and action plans. However, the biggest changes necessary for Catalonia to adopt the renewable, low-emissions energy model it desires cannot be implemented by the Catalan Government, but would have to come from the Spanish Government instead. Overall, the biggest challenge facing the adoption of renewable energy is being able to produce it at prices competitive with conventional sources of power.

Registered unemployment decreased in Catalonia by 9,162 people in July compared to the previous month, the third-biggest drop for the month of July since 1996. The total number of people registered as unemployed with Catalonia’s Public Employment Service (SOC) at the end of the month was 501,785 individuals, which represents an 11.69% drop in annual terms, the highest percentage decrease since April 2000 (when registered unemployment dropped 11.94% compared to 1999 figures). In addition, the figures from July mean that there have now been 25 consecutive months of annual drops in the number of unemployed in Catalonia. As well as this, the total number of Catalans without a job and looking for one at the end of last month was the lowest  since July 2009 (when there were 495,911 jobless people). In Spain as a whole, registered unemployment decreased by 74,028 people from June to July, which represents an 8.45% annual drop and is Spain’s most significant decrease for the month of July since 1998.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has signed this Monday evening a decree officially calling Catalan Parliament elections for this coming 27 September. These elections are expected to be transformed into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence from Spain, after the Spanish Government has rejected for the last 3 years any negotiation over organising a mutually-agreed self-determination vote, ignoring the clear democratic mandate from the previous Catalan elections that took place in November 2012. The signing of the decree calling the 27 September elections has been surrounded by an unusual level of discretion about its exact content, as there has been significant speculation over whether the Spanish authorities could appeal against the decree and stop the Catalan elections from happening if they were becoming a plebiscite on independence. In fact, in the past few weeks, and increasingly in the past few days, Spanish authorities have been warning Mas that he can only call “elections to the Autonomous Community Parliament”.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has stated that Catalonia's upcoming elections are Spain's "main risk" to the State itself and to the country’s economic recovery. Rajoy read a speech before the press before departing for his summer break, and Catalonia's independence was one of the main issues he talked about. The Spanish PM stressed that the government he heads "will never allow secession to happen"; "by no means will there be independence", he emphasised. He also stressed that the Spanish Government is ready "to fight the battle of defending the many millions of citizens who feel Catalan, Spanish and European". Rajoy said he is satisfied with the strategy he has been employing during the last few years, based on a total rejection of even talking about the organisation of a mutually-agreed vote like the one that took place in Scotland. According to him, his approach was "cautious and proportional". "We have not made any concession", he added, "nothing". According to him, any Spanish PM would have acted in the same way, as "it is not easy to hold a dialogue with somebody who wants to organise a referendum".

Nowadays, multiple cultures, religions and traditions live side by side in the neighbourhoods of many European cities, and Catalonia is no exception, quite the contrary in fact. According to the Union of Islamic Communities in Spain, overall 1,858,409 Muslims live there. The majority of them are concentrated in Catalonia, a country with a long history of accommodating foreigners, where 509,333 followers of this religion dwell (out of a total population of 7.55 million people). Although acknowledging that individual acts of discrimination do occur, Muslims affirm that here the social climate is not filled with hatred. However, in the past few decades, 'anti-immigration discourses' have entered some isolated Catalan political parties' agendas and those whom we interviewed think that local media present a skewed picture of the Muslim community.

Catalonia's GDP increased by 3.5% between June 2014 and June 2015 and was the Autonomous Community with the third-highest level of economic growth, leading Spain's economic recovery.  Spain as a whole grew at a 3.1% annual rate in the same period, according to figures released on Thursday by the Spanish Independent Fiscal Authority (Airef). Ahead of Catalonia in terms of GDP growth are the Balearic Islands – with 4% growth – and the Valencian Country (also called Valencian Community) – with growth of 3.9%. They are followed by Catalonia (3.5%), the Canary Islands (3.4%) and the Madrid region (3.2%). According to these figures, the eastern part of Spain has been the most dynamic during the last few months, and Catalonia, which is the wealthiest Autonomous Community and has one of the highest growth rates, is the region contributing the most in absolute terms.

60.2% of families with one parent born outside Catalonia use Catalan with their children and 27.5% of natives with both parents born outside use Catalan with their children, according to data from 2013 coming from the Language Policy Report 2014 released this week. Ferran Mascarell, the Catalan Minister for Culture, said that "Catalan health remains" and said that "Catalan has passed a phase that was complicated because there have been significant demographic changes," along with technological changes and negative Spanish Government's policies. In Catalonia, the majority of the population 15 years and older claimed to understand, speak, read and write in Catalan: 94.3% understood, 80.4% could speak, 82.4% could read and 60.4% could write. Besides, while 48.1% of the population above 15 has a high level of Catalan in all language abilities, 26.6% reported important deficits in using or understanding the language.

Despite the fact that all the Autonomous Community governments that are not run by the People's Party (PP) requested the Spanish Executive  – run by the PP – to allow them a greater deficit in 2016 and that Spain's independent fiscal authority Airef also recommended granting regional governments greater deficit targets for next year, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, has rejected doing so. In 2016, the Autonomous Communities will have to close their budgets with less than a 0.3% deficit, "an absurd" and "unrealistic" figure according to the Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, who was recently awarded an honorary PhD in Economics by the University of Chicago. The Catalan Government asked for a 0.88% deficit target for 2016. Besides this, next year the Catalan Executive will receive €1.2 billion that should have already been transferred by the Spanish Executive but was not, due to Montoro's tax revenue miscalculations. In addition to this, since economic activity is growing, the Spanish Government will increase the Catalan Executive's funds by €700 million each year from 2016 onwards.