catalan independence

The left-wing independence party ERC announced it will not block the Catalan Government's budget proposal for 2015, which should allow the bill to continue its parliamentary approval process. ERC's decision comes within the negotiations with the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU to run together or separately in early Catalan elections that should be transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. The CiU is missing 18 MPs to get the absolute majority and it needs the votes or the abstention from at least one other group to approve next year's budget. The ERC and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) are the only two groups that could enable the bill to pass, although they do not seem willing to do so. By not blocking the budget, the ERC is "facilitating" an agreement with the CiU. However, they are expecting the new budget not to be approved in the end because early elections should be called, although they "do not rule out any scenario".

Miquel Iceta, First Secretary of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), is currently rejecting a vote on independence and is proposing a broad Constitutional Reform to grant Catalonia a better fitting within a truly federal Spain. On Wednesday evening, Iceta exposed his proposals in a conference, emulating what the main pro-independence leaders – Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras – had done one and two weeks ago. On Thursday, he was interviewed by a radio station about his proposals and he was asked about would happen if Catalans were to reject the Constitutional Reform he is pushing for. In such scenario, the leader of the PSC – which is part of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – stated that he would support the organisation of a referendum on independence. However, before voting on breaking up with Spain, Iceta insisted on the need to vote on a new agreement set through a Constitutional Reform.

Miquel Iceta, First Secretary of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), proposed his road map for the coming two years: no early elections and broad Constitutional Reform to better fit Catalonia into a federal Spain. On Wednesday Iceta held his own conference after those of the Catalan President and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, and the left-wing independence party (ERC), Oriol Junqueras. While the two others support independence, Iceta opposes it. He totally rejected the road maps proposed by Mas and Junqueras and insisted on the need to work "on the real problems of Catalans", such as poverty, unemployment, budget cuts in public healthcare, etc. However, the PSC leader admitted that "there will be no solution without a vote", but "a real vote". Iceta said that before breaking up with Spain, Catalans should be allowed to vote on "a new agreement" to remain in Spain. In order to facilitate such a new agreement, he proposed that the Spanish Government cancel part of the Autonomous Communities' debt.

Meetings between pro-independence politicians and civil society organisations are being held and will increase over the next few days, in order to explore the possibilities of forming a shared electoral list to run in early Catalan Parliament elections, which should be transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence from Spain. However there are two main obstacles for this scenario. Firstly, the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, is reluctant to call early elections if a shared candidature with the left-wing pro-independence party ERC - open to many independents - is not formed. Secondly, the President of the ERC, Oriol Junqueras, wants to run separately, highlighting the need to debate on social issues and corruption as well. This Wednesday, Mas and Junqueras met and have agreed to increase their talks in the coming days.

Early elections at the Catalan Parliament transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence is the only formula left to allow citizens to hold a self-determination vote. However, parties supporting self-determination, and particularly those supporting independence, do not share the same approach about how to ensure it will become a true plebiscite, nor on the exact steps that should follow if they were to win.  The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, wants to run through a broad single list grouping many ideologies together. However, left-wing parties are against this formula and want a debate on social issues and corruption. Both approaches pretend to be the one that guarantees the highest number of pro-independence votes. At present, parties and civil society organisations are holding intense talks to explore a consensual way out.

The Disciplinary Commission of Spain’s Judicial Power Council (CGPJ) has finally stated that the 33 judges who signed a manifesto supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination in March did not break any norm. According to the CGPJ’s statement released on Thursday, from “a strictly legal” point of view, the 33 Catalan judges – some of them very senior – were expressing “an opinion on an issue of legal, social or political interest” and such an action “is protected by fundamental freedoms such as the freedom of expression and opinion, guaranteed by Article 20 of the Constitution”. Therefore, the CGPJ has filed the case and will not take disciplinary actions against them, after an extreme-right and Spanish nationalist organization, Manos Limpias (which has nothing to do with its Italian homonym), had filed a criminal complaint against them. 

The governing People’s Party (PP) has once again rejected the creation of a subcommittee within the Spanish Parliament to start debating a Constitutional Reform, in order to handle the deep political crisis and Catalonia-Spain relationship. The Spanish Government and the PP – which holds an absolute majority at the Chamber – have been refusing to initiate a Constitutional Reform on manifold occasions during the last few months. Furthermore, last weekend, Prime Minister Rajoy strongly objected to making “any concession” regarding Catalonia’s demands and, instead, the PP is working on an involution of the political model that would recentralise many powers and increase the Spanish Government’s presence in Catalonia. This Thursday, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) filed the motion to create a parliamentary subcommittee to start working on the Constitutional Reform because the best way to save this text is “by updating it”. The PP replied “this debate is neither timely nor necessary”.

The President of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has explained his own road map to allow citizens to vote on independence from Spain and build a new state. Junqueras proposed running in immediate early elections through different pro-independence lists with shared elements and opened to independents, in order to respect diversity. The ERC leader differed from the proposal of running through a single electoral list made by the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas. Junqueras insisted on the need to answer to the social and economic concerns of many citizens in addition to those about independence. Should they altogether obtain a majority, the different pro-independence candidatures should form a national unity government and start building the new state from day one. He particularly emphasised the need to include those who did not voted for independence in the constituent process, which should be finally ratified in a referendum.

On the same day, both the Spanish Justice Minister, Rafael Català, and the 'number 2' of the governing People's Party (PP), María Dolores de Cospedal, compared Catalonia's self-determination process with the Fascist and Nazi movements of the 1930s. Such a comparison trivialises Nazism and is highly offensive for millions of Catalan citizens. The Catalan pro-independence movement mainly demands to hold a democratic vote on independence, as in Scotland, and it has always acted in a peaceful and festive way. The expert in European populism, Meindert Fennema, stated he considered that to compare Catalan self-determination with Nazism to be "ridiculous" and "nonsensical". On top of this, he highlighted that Catalonia's society is highly inclusive, since it has welcomed and integrated millions of immigrants in the last 100 years. In fact, 70% of the Catalan population has origins from outside Catalonia and 80% of the Catalan population want to hold a self-determination vote. 

The Catalan Government presented on Tuesday its budget proposal for 2015, which has a €22.48 billion spending but only a €19.98 billion revenue. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, insisted that spending cannot be further reduced since no further budget cuts can be implemented without seriously damaging public services. In fact, the current budget keeps social spending levels of 2014, which represent 71.2% of the new budget. In addition, public employees' full salary will be restored, after it had been lowered for the last 3 years. The 2015 budget posts a 0.7% deficit (€1.44 billion). However, there is a €2.5 billion difference between spending and revenue that should mostly be covered with €2.19 billion from Spanish Government's pending debts. However, Mas-Colell does not rule out being granted a higher deficit target, since the current one is "unfair" and is not in line with the Catalan Government's austerity measures already adopted. Furthermore, the Spanish Government has reduced funds from the regular funding scheme by 10.7% between 2013 and 2015, a €2 billion reduction, despite the economy is recovering. 

The Catalan Government has released on Monday the definitive turnout figures of the citizen participations process of November 9, in which Catalans were able to cast their ballot until November 25. Finally, 2,344,828 people participated in this non-binding vote on independence, 2,305,290 of whom did so on November 9. After the main voting day, 7 polling stations remained opened throughout Catalonia for those who wanted to participate within the following 15 days. 80,91% of citizens voted for full independence from Spain; 10.2% voted for a Catalan State within a federal or confederated Spain; and 4.49% voted to keep the current Autonomous Community model or for the recentralization of powers. This symbolic vote was carried out despite the total opposition of the Spanish authorities, including criminal prosecution threats. In fact, Spain’s Pubic Prosecution Office, whose Director is directly appointed by the Spanish Government, has pressed criminal charges against the Catalan President, Vice President and Minister for Education for authorising and co-organising such a symbolic consultation process.

Once again the Spanish Government and the People’s Party (PP) have closed the door to making any concession to Catalonia with the objective of reducing support for independence. On Saturday, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, travelled to Catalonia for the first time since last May’s European Elections to participate in a closed-door PP event. Rajoy insisted on affirming that November 9’s symbolic self-determination vote had been “a failure” of the pro-independence forces. He accused the Catalan President of “heading nowhere” and of ignoring “2 out of 3 Catalans”, a figure arrived at by adding all the people who did not vote on November 9. Once again, Rajoy refused any negotiation or to make any concession. On Monday, the PP’s leader in Catalonia, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, stated that “Catalonia’s solution does not include third ways [built] with concessions”. Furthermore, the PP asked for a greater presence of the Spanish Government in Catalonia, which means recentralization.

The People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government but is only the 4^th largest group at the Catalan Parliament, has organized two days of debate in Barcelona on local governments and good governance. The main leaders of the party are coming to Catalonia, including the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who will close the debate on Saturday. Rajoy’s speech has been greatly publicised as he will visit Catalonia for the first time after November 9’s symbolic vote on independence. Rajoy himself has raised expectations, as he said “he will talk to Catalans” in this restrictive party meeting. In fact, on Friday, the PP insisted on representing “all the Catalans who did no vote on November 9”, therefore excluding the citizens who voted. The PP’s ‘number 2’, Maria Dolores de Cospedal, accused the President of the Catalan Government of being a “ pre-made myth” and insisted that her party “loves Catalonia”, and will continue to “help Catalans” despite “the independence challenge”.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, confirmed that Spain and Catalonia are already now in a situation of “open conflict”, after the criminal prosecution launched against him and two other members of his Cabinet. However, Mas asked the Spanish Government to end its “angry” attitude and start negotiating, proposing ways out of the current situation. The Catalan President added that the international community will ask the Spanish Government to sit and talk if the current open conflict finally generates “concerns” at an international level. Mas was addressing an economic forum with the main representatives of Catalonia’s business community. The Spanish Minister for the Economy, Luís de Guindos, was also present and they were in friendly conversation for a little while. De Guindos emphasized that the Spanish Government has issued “bailouts for Catalonia in difficult moments”.

The European Commission has warned Spain about its budget for 2015 and the possibility of meeting the global deficit target of 4.2%. It has asked the Spanish Government to adopt the necessary measures to guarantee that the 2015 budget will respect the Stability and Growth Pact. The Spanish Minister for the Economy answered back and affirmed that no additional measures will be adopted since the planned budget and the forecast economic growth “are enough”. The Commission also demanded that the Spanish Government put “more pressure” on the Autonomous Communities that will not meet their deficit target for 2014, which is likely the case of Catalonia. Brussels directly asked for the implementation of “corrective measures” in these cases. However, the Commission did not make any comment on whether such deficit targets unilaterally imposed by Madrid are fair or realistic. In fact, the Catalan Finance Minister accused the Spanish Government of putting the blame on the Autonomous Communities and “discrediting” them, in order to recentralise powers.